2003—2004年冬季北半球爆发性增温期间极地平流层甲烷、水汽的演变特征

利用欧洲空间局（ESA）提供的ENVISAT/MIPAS （Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding）卫星观测数据以及ECMWF业务分析场,综合分析了2003—2004年冬季北半球爆发性增温（SSW）事件中极地平流层大气甲烷和水汽的演变特征.结果表明：（1）增温出现时,平流层高、中层极涡先后发生分裂,对应的甲烷、水汽极值中心也同时发生分裂;（2）增温下传过程中,平流层中上层甲烷、水汽同时具有“向上输送”的特征,这主要是由极地平流层的上升运动造成;增温过程中行星波活动引起的向极输送造成这种“向上输送”特征在高层具有一定的超前性;（3）增温后期,高层极涡迅速恢复,极涡内的下沉运动将中间层低层的空气（甲烷、水汽浓度极低）输送进入平流层,造成平流层高层极涡（52km附近）内出现甲烷、水汽浓度的异常低值.     

2003-2004年冬季北半球爆发性增温期间极地平流层甲烷、水汽的演变特征

利用欧洲空间局(ESA)提供的ENVISAT/MIPAS(Michelson Interferometer for PassiveAtmospheric Sounding)卫星观测数据以及ECMWF业务分析场,综合分析了2003-2004年冬季北半球爆发性增温(SSW)事件中极地平流层大气甲烷和水汽的演变特征.结果表明:(1)增温出现时,平流层高、中层极涡先后发生分裂,对应的甲烷、水汽极值中心也同时发生分裂;(2)增温下传过程中,平流层中上层甲烷、水汽同时具有"向上输送"的特征,这主要是由极地平流层的上升运动造成;增温过程中行星波活动引起的向极输送造成这种"向上输送"特征在高层具有一定的超前性;(3)增温后期,高层极涡迅速恢复,极涡内的下沉运动将中间层低层的空气(甲烷、水汽浓度极低)输送进入平流层,造成平流层高层极涡(52 km附近)内出现甲烷、水汽浓度的异常低值.     

全球平流层、对流层质量交换的季节变化特征

用1958年到2001年44 a ECMWF资料,P坐标系下Wei公式诊断了全球对流层、平流层交换的季节变化.结果表明:印尼、孟加拉湾以及南美中西海岸附近是物质由对流层向平流层输送的主要通道.中高纬度地区同时存在向上、向下的通量,大尺度槽区伴随着平流层向下的输送.一年中,秋、冬季向下的输送强,春、夏季较弱.东亚地区存在很强的平流层向下的输送,且中心位置移动不大;只占北半球5.6%面积的东亚,其多年平均质量净交换量却占到北半球的15.83%,这说明东亚地区对流层与平流层之间的质量交换对北半球乃至全球对流层、平流层交换研究的重要性.从1958年到2001年,穿越对流层顶的空气都是更多地从平流层进入对流层,这与同化数据本身存在系统性偏差以及对流层顶高度44a来始终升高有关.南、北半球质量交换量以及质量交换通量对所占纬度带的贡献都是从赤道向两极逐渐增大,且北半球的贡献比南半球要大得多.高纬度地区单位面积上的质量交换量以及质量交换通量比低纬度要大,说明高纬度地区质量交换的效率要比低纬度更高.     

北半球冬季准定常行星波传播的年代际变化

通过利用NCEPNCAR再分析资料对1958—2004年共46个冬季北半球大气准定常行星波传播的年代际变化进行分析，发现气候态意义下的准定常行星波沿高纬度由对流层向平流层的传播和在对流层内向低纬度的传播之间存在显著的反相振荡关系. 进一步的研究还表明，准定常行星波传播的年代际变化与北极涛动有密切的联系；北极涛动的正位相对应于在对流层有异常强的从中高纬度向低纬度对流层顶附近的波动传播，同时通过极地波导向平流层的传播明显减弱.其结果不仅说明大气内部的准定常行星波与纬向平均流相互作用可以产生年代际尺度的变化；而且提供了平流层变化影响对流层大气环流长期变化的一种动力学机制.     

2008年雪灾同平流层环流异常的关系

为了探讨2008年我国南方罕见的低温、雨雪和冰冻灾害与平流层环流异常的关系,利用NCEP资料对2007年10月1日到2008年2月29日的平流层大气环流的逐日变化进行了分析.结果表明,这次低温、雨雪和冰冻灾害之前,平流层北极涡旋异常加强和变形,同时在中低纬地区平流层的环流也发生明显的变化.这些变化从平流层向下传,进而影响对流层.由此可见这次我国历史罕见的低温、雨雪和冰冻灾害不但与对流层大气环流的变化有关,也与平流层环流的变化有关.更有意义的是,平流层环流的变化超前了一个多月.因此利用平流层的信息作为天气预报的参考,对提高中长期天气预报(特别是重大灾害的预报)的准确率会起到积极的作用.     

北半球仲春平流层行星波活动对臭氧总量分布的影响

采用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和TOMS臭氧总量资料,分析了1979～2003年4月份平流层行星波1波和2波的变化,及其对北半球中高纬臭氧总量分布的影响.结果表明,在通常情况下,4月份平流层中下层行星波1波强于2波,对应的位势高度场在欧亚大陆北部为一低压涡旋,而北美北部为一高压区.此时,从东北亚到北加拿大为臭氧总量的高值区,而北欧至格陵兰一带为臭氧的低值区.但在有些年份,2波比较强时,相应的位势高度场在极地为一明显的低压涡旋,此时在极地附近会出现臭氧低值区.个别年份如1997年,1波在25年中最强,2波也很强,强低涡中心比常年更靠近北极点,在与之位置相同的地方出现了25年中最明显的臭氧洞.还有一些年份,北极地区主要由高压控制,臭氧总量的高值区基本上出现在北极及其附近.     

南极爆发性增温后微量气体的分布特征

利用高层大气研究卫星(UARS)上的卤素掩星试验(HALOE)提供的资料,分析了2002年异常的南极爆发性增温以后的南极附近平流层微量气体的分布.结果表明,这次爆发性增温以后,除南极臭氧洞明显减弱外,南极平流层其他微量气体的分布也发生了很大改变.在沿70°S纬圈的剖面上,2002年微量气体分布表现出明显的2波型特点,与未发生爆发性增温的2003年和2001年(代表通常年份)强的1波型分布特征相比,各种微量气体混合比在纬向分布更加均匀.通过比较还发现,在通常年份极涡所处的位置上,2002年O3和CH4的混合比有所增加,HCl和NO的混合比有所减少,而NO2和H2O在不同高度上的变化特点不同.这与爆发性增温之后极涡和动力输送的变化有关,同时由于增温导致极地平流层云中相关冰相反应的减弱也是一个重要的原因.     

北半球对流层气候异常对热带印度洋海温偶极子型振荡的响应及动力机制解释

利用诊断和数值模拟的方法,探讨了印度洋海温偶极子型振荡（Indian Ocean Dipole,IOD）和北半球对流层气候异常之间的遥相关模态及动力机制。研究结果显示：北半球对流层位势高度异常场存在和IOD变化密切联系的遥相关作用中心,该作用中心呈正负相间的Rossby波列形状分布,该Rossby波列从印度东北部出发,向东北方向发展,进入北半球中高纬度和北极地区。在北极地区该遥相关的特征最为明显。研究结果还进一步显示了大气行星波的能量传播是IOD和北半球对流层气候异常之间遥相关的一种可能的联系方式。     

基于平流层环流变化的夏季长江下游强降水频数气候预测模型

采用相关分析方法,研究了6~8月长江下游强降水频数与前期冬季12~2月全球50 hPa纬向风的关系;并研制了基于KLM滤波的夏季长江下游强降水频数气候预测模型。结果表明,存在3个显著的相关区:北极附近,北太平洋中纬度和南半球高纬度地区。用这些前期12~2月全球平流层关键区的纬向风建立KLM预测模型进行预测试验,发现它对近10年6~8月长江下游地区强降水频数的变化具有较好的预测能力,明显优于多变量的线性回归预测;其中与北极附近和南半球高纬度地区平流层纬向风相关稳定,而与北太平洋中纬度纬向风的相关存在一定程度的不稳定。基于平流层环流变化的夏季长江下游强降水频数KLM模型可以为短期气候预测业务预报提供重要参考。     

全球对流层顶气压场和温度场的时空演变结构特征

 利用1948~2004年共57年的对流层顶气压场和温度场资料,对全球对流层顶平均温压场的空间分布结构、年际和年代际变化以及季节变化进行了分析.结果表明:①热带对流层顶和极地对流层顶的平均气压场的空间位置和热状况大致吻合,并存在空间波动性,两半球对流层顶的温压场具有显著的非对称性;②对流层顶的纬向气压与温度距平场都具有不同尺度的年际和年代际变化,两极地区对流层顶的温压场最不稳定,两半球中纬度地区的时间演变尺度存在明显差异.对流层顶断裂带及其对应温度的时空波动存在反位相关系,20世纪70年代末温度出现突变现象,此时对流层顶断裂带迅速向南部空间移动;③不同季节对流层顶的温压场都将进行空间结构的调整,两者之间存在着季节变化的协调性,但北半球较南半球的演变过程复杂;④对流层顶温压场纬向距平的季节变率可划分为5个位相不同的时空波动区域,构成了气压场和温度场的经向型相关结构.北极地区气压场变化有超前于温度场变化的趋势,对流层顶断裂带的温度季节变化存在着双峰波动结构.冬半年断裂区的地理位置较夏半年稳定,气压场和温度场的最大季节变程均发生在南极.     

全球地表温度大气遥相关路径研究

基于复杂网络方法,分析不同区域地表温度之间存在的相关关系及其时滞,建立了体现大气遥相关的全球地表温度网络,进而给出地表温度网络遥相关路径．研究表明:网络连接的空间距离在3 500和7 000 km处有1个峰值,这与大气Rossby波的1/2和1倍波长一致．地表温度网络中,影响传播的主导节点在北半球分布在东亚、向西延伸的北太平洋、美国东海岸及邻接的北大西洋地区;在南半球分布在50° S纬度带．遥相关现象在南半球比北半球更显著,典型遥相关路径与不同的环流作用有明确对应:1）北太平洋中部到墨西哥的连接反映了西风带的作用;2）北大西洋传播到非洲北部、格陵兰岛到里海的连接,均属于连接北大西洋到欧亚大陆的跨欧亚波列的一部分;3）俄罗斯喀拉海到北太平洋的连接与北大西洋涛动（NAO）密切关联;4）南半球的连接反映了大气西风带和Rossby波的影响．大气遥相关路径分析有利于深化对地表温度变化的认识,可为减缓气候全球变化提供理论基础．      

Spatial and temporal variations of light rain events over China and the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Based on observed daily precipitation data, monthly gridded radiosonde upper air temperature and sea surface temperature data from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, monthly surface air temperature from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data, this study investigates the spatial and temporal variations of light rain events over China and the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during 1961-2010, and discusses the relationship between the change of light rain events and atmospheric stability, sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. The light rain events over East China display a decreasing trend of 3.0%/10 a in summer and winter half years. Over Northwest China, an increasing trend of 4.1%/10 a is found in winter half years, but there is no trend in summer half years. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, it is found that the first two principal components of light rain events over the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere show long time scale variations in summer and winter half years. The first EOF modes (EOF1s) for summer and winter half years both depict a long-term increase in light rain events over North America and Southern Europe as well as Northwest China (except in summer half years), and a long-term decrease over most of the Eurasia (Central Europe, Eastern Europe, North Asia and East China). The second EOF mode (EOF2) for summer half year shows that light rain events increase over North America, Southern Europe and South China, but decrease over Eurasia north of 45°N from 1961 to early 1980s, while the trends reverse from late 1980s to 2010. The second EOF mode (EOF2) for winter half years indicates that light rain events increase over North America and South and North China, but decrease over Eurasia north of 40°N from 1961 to early 1980s, while the trends reverse from late 1980s to 2009. Correlation analysis and linear regression analysis suggest that EOF1s may be related to the change in atmospheric static stability associated with global warming, and EOF2s are possibly linked to the AMO.     

Origin of a 'Southern Hemisphere' geochemical signature in the Arctic upper mantle

The Gakkel ridge, which extends under the Arctic ice cap for approximately 1,800 km, is the slowest spreading ocean ridge on Earth. Its spreading created the Eurasian basin, which is isolated from the rest of the oceanic mantle by North America, Eurasia and the Lomonosov ridge. The Gakkel ridge thus provides unique opportunities to investigate the composition of the sub-Arctic mantle and mantle heterogeneity and melting at the lower limits of seafloor spreading. The first results of the 2001 Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge Expedition (ref. 1) divided the Gakkel ridge into three tectonic segments, composed of robust western and eastern volcanic zones separated by a 'sparsely magmatic zone'. On the basis of Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios and trace elements in basalts from the spreading axis, we show that the sparsely magmatic zone contains an abrupt mantle compositional boundary. Basalts to the west of the boundary display affinities to the Southern Hemisphere 'Dupal' isotopic province, whereas those to the east-closest to the Eurasian continent and where the spreading rate is slowest-display affinities to 'Northern Hemisphere' ridges. The western zone is the only known spreading ridge outside the Southern Hemisphere that samples a significant upper-mantle region with Dupal-like characteristics. Although the cause of Dupal mantle has been long debated, we show that the source of this signature beneath the western Gakkel ridge was subcontinental lithospheric mantle that delaminated and became integrated into the convecting Arctic asthenosphere. This occurred as North Atlantic mantle propagated north into the Arctic during the separation of Svalbard and Greenland.     

2003 vs 2002: A large amplitude wintertime temperature anomaly reversion event and its anomalous atmospheric circulation

It is revealed that there happened a large amplitude wintertime temperature anomaly reversion event (LTAR) in Northern Hemisphere high latitude regions and South Australia for the year 2003 versus 2002, with the most notable change in Eurasia, eastern North America, North Pacific, and South Australia. The accompanying atmospheric general circulation anomalies are analyzed and the dominant changes in the circulation are found out. The anomalous cyclonic eddies over the north Pacific and the anomalous anticyclonic eddies over North Europe that cooperate each other are mostly linked with the event. Both anomalous eddy systems are connected with the remote teleconnection patterns respectively. The research also suggests the existence of a cross-equator teleconnection pattern, namely, the Northern Pacific-Western Pacific-Australia teleconnection pattern (NPWPA). It is not only related to LTAR, but also associated with the temperature transition from cold episode to warm episode in the year 2003 versus 2002 during December-January-February.     

A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model

To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. However, the magnitude of the warming is weaker than that in the 20th century. The warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The LIA cooling is also evident on a global scale, with a strong cooling over the high Eurasian continent, while the cooling center is over the Arctic domain. Both the MWP and the 20CW experiments exhibit the strongest warming anomalies in the middle troposphere around 200?C300 hPa, but the cooling center of the LIA experiment is seen in the polar surface of the Northern Hemisphere. A comparison of model simulation against the reconstruction indicates that model??s performance in simulating the surface air temperature changes during the warm periods is better than that during the cold periods. The consistencies between model and reconstruction in lower latitudes are better than those in high latitudes. Comparison of the inter-annual variability mode of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall during the MWP, LIA and 20CW reveals a similar rainfall anomalies pattern. However, the time spectra of the principal component during the three typical periods of the last millennium are different, and the quasi-biannual oscillation is more evident during the two warm periods. At a centennial time scale, the external mode of the EASM variability driven by the changes of effective solar radiation is determined by the changes of large scale land-sea thermal contrast. The rainfall anomalies over the east of 110°E exhibit a meridional homogeneous change pattern, which is different from the meridional out-of-phase change of rainfall anomalies associated with the internal mode.     

Extreme climate of the global troposphere and stratosphere in 1940-42 related to El Niño

Although the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation phenomenon is the most prominent mode of climate variability and affects weather and climate in large parts of the world, its effects on Europe and the high-latitude stratosphere are controversial. Using historical observations and reconstruction techniques, we analyse the anomalous state of the troposphere and stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to 1942 that occurred during a strong and long-lasting El Ni?o event. Exceptionally low surface temperatures in Europe and the north Pacific Ocean coincided with high temperatures in Alaska. In the lower stratosphere, our reconstructions show high temperatures over northern Eurasia and the north Pacific Ocean, and a weak polar vortex. In addition, there is observational evidence for frequent stratospheric warmings and high column ozone at Arctic and mid-latitude sites. We compare our historical data for the period 1940-42 with more recent data and a 650-year climate model simulation. We conclude that the observed anomalies constitute a recurring extreme state of the global troposphere-stratosphere system in northern winter that is related to strong El Ni?o events.     

Interhemispheric climate links revealed by late-glacial cooling episode in southern Chile

Understanding the relative timings of climate events in the Northern and Southern hemispheres is a prerequisite for determining the causes of abrupt climate changes. But climate records from the Patagonian Andes and New Zealand for the period of transition from glacial to interglacial conditions--about 14.6-10 kyr before present, as determined by radiocarbon dating--show varying degrees of correlation with similar records from the Northern Hemisphere. It is necessary to resolve these apparent discrepancies in order to be able to assess the relative roles of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and oceanic, atmospheric and astronomical influences in initiating climate change in the late-glacial period. Here we report pollen records from three sites in the Lake District of southern Chile (41 degrees S) from which we infer conditions similar to modern climate between about 13 and 12.2 14C kyr before present (BP), followed by cooling events at about 12.2 and 11.4 14C kyr BP, and then by a warming at about 9.8 14C kyr BP. These events were nearly synchronous with important palaeoclimate changes recorded in the North Atlantic region, supporting the idea that interhemispheric linkage through the atmosphere was the primary control on climate during the last deglaciation. In other regions of the Southern Hemisphere, where climate events are not in phase with those in the Northern Hemisphere, local oceanic influences may have counteracted the effects that propagated through the atmosphere.     

North Pacific seasonality and the glaciation of North America 2.7 million years ago

In the context of gradual Cenozoic cooling, the timing of the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation 2.7 million years ago is consistent with Milankovitch's orbital theory, which posited that ice sheets grow when polar summertime insolation and temperature are low. However, the role of moisture supply in the initiation of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets has remained unclear. The subarctic Pacific Ocean represents a significant source of water vapour to boreal North America, but it has been largely overlooked in efforts to explain Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Here we present alkenone unsaturation ratios and diatom oxygen isotope ratios from a sediment core in the western subarctic Pacific Ocean, indicating that 2.7 million years ago late-summer sea surface temperatures in this ocean region rose in response to an increase in stratification. At the same time, winter sea surface temperatures cooled, winter floating ice became more abundant and global climate descended into glacial conditions. We suggest that the observed summer warming extended into the autumn, providing water vapour to northern North America, where it precipitated and accumulated as snow, and thus allowed the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.     

Increased Arctic cloud longwave emissivity associated with pollution from mid-latitudes

There is consensus among climate models that Arctic climate is particularly sensitive to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and that, over the next century, Arctic surface temperatures are projected to rise at a rate about twice the global mean. The response of Arctic surface temperatures to greenhouse gas thermal emission is modified by Northern Hemisphere synoptic meteorology and local radiative processes. Aerosols may play a contributing factor through changes to cloud radiative properties. Here we evaluate a previously suggested contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to cloud emission and surface temperatures in the Arctic. Using four years of ground-based aerosol and radiation measurements obtained near Barrow, Alaska, we show that, where thin water clouds and pollution are coincident, there is an increase in cloud longwave emissivity resulting from elevated haze levels. This results in an estimated surface warming under cloudy skies of between 3.3 and 5.2 W m(-2) or 1 and 1.6 degrees C. Arctic climate is closely tied to cloud longwave emission, but feedback mechanisms in the system are complex and the actual climate response to the described sensitivity remains to be evaluated.