第22太阳活动周软X射线耀斑的统计研究

根据GOES卫星资料 (1～ 8 ) ,统计了第 2 2太阳活动周 (1986 .9～ 1996 .10 )软X射线耀斑数 ,共计 2 0 930个耀斑 ,其中X级最少 ,不到 1% ;M级为 10 % ;C级最多 ,约占 6 0 % .统计发现 ,此活动周有两个峰 ,分别在 1989年和 1991年 ,1989年平均耀斑指数为 4 2 7,1991年为 4 6 8;C、M及X级耀斑数在活动周的上升期迅速增大 ,两年多时间就达到极大 ;而下降期缓慢减小 ,长达 4年多 ;耀斑发生率随软X射线峰值流量的变化呈幂律谱分布 ,谱指数为 - 2 .135 ,相关系数为- 0 .987;小耀斑易受背景影响 ,B级耀斑以及C级耀斑中的较小者在峰年及其前后往往湮没在背景中 ,无法辨别 .还发现X射线耀斑的光学对应体 (Hα耀斑 )与X射线耀斑的比率随X射线耀斑级别的增高而增大 ,X级的光学对应体达 94 % ,M级为 83% ,C级为 6 3% ,B级只有 30 % .     

基于Matlab的BP神经网络在太阳耀斑级别预测中的应用

太阳耀斑爆发与多种因素存在着非线性的关系,其中规律难以把握.选择时间变化长短,工作频率,路径大圆距离,VLF传播相位变化偏移量4个与太阳耀斑级别预测密切相关的重要因素,构建了BP神经网络模型;然后利用Matlab工具箱对网络模型进行系统仿真与多次训练,使网络的预测输出不断逼近期望输出,实现对太阳耀斑级别的预测,通过结果误差分析,表明这种方法具有有效性与可行性.     

日冕物质抛射与太阳耀斑的时序关系分析

日冕物质抛射表现为在短时间内快速地由日冕向外抛射出大量等离子体物质,这些物质进入星际空间,特别是日地空间,会对日地空间的磁场分布造成影响。采用自1996年1月3日至2009年7月31日的太阳耀斑和日冕物质抛射的样本,对日冕物质抛射和耀斑的时序关系进行分时间窗口统计研究。结果表明对于耀斑而言,日冕物质抛射与其有密切的时序关系且耀斑级别越大时序关系越密切。而对于日冕物质抛射而言,耀斑与其没有密切的时序关系,这可能是所选取的样本中包含大量太阳背面日冕物质抛射所致。这一结论可以用于日冕物质抛射预报。     

太阳活动峰年和谷年期间黑子群与耀斑的统计分析

基于NOAA/SWPC公布的太阳活动数据,我们选取第24太阳活动峰年附近的12个连续月份(2011年7月至2012年6月)和第23太阳活动周谷年附近的12个连续月份(2005年7月至2006年6月),统计了这两段时间中太阳黑子群和耀斑的活动规律,并根据时间、黑子群分布纬度、寿命和磁场类型等对峰年和谷年进行了详细分析和比较,主要结论如下所述.(1)黑子群数随时间的变化在峰年和谷年均比较随机,峰年期间黑子数比谷年增多1.5倍左右.耀斑爆发与黑子群活动具有良好的相关性,但峰年期间存在某个月份耀斑数很少的现象,而谷年期间存在某个月份耀斑数集中增多的现象.(2)无论峰年还是谷年,δ类型黑子群的耀斑产率(耀斑总数与黑子群总数之比)最大,但β型黑子群产生的耀斑爆发最多.耀斑产率与磁场类型有密切关系,但与其所处太阳活动周中的阶段无关.(3)黑子群和耀斑的纬度分布的南北不对称性,以X级耀斑最为显著.峰年较谷年的耀斑数增加主要集中在C级和M级.(4)耀斑产率同黑子群寿命具有良好的相关性,但黑子群的数目同它们的寿命之间没有明显的规律.     

甚低频电磁波方法预报地磁暴

通过观察甚低频电磁波的相位变化,预测太阳耀斑的级别.当太阳耀斑爆发时,太阳表面首先会发出大量电磁辐射(主要是X射线),甚低频电磁波能很好地感应到此辐射;其次还喷射出大量带电低能粒子流,这会引起地磁暴,且通常在耀斑爆发1~2d之后到达地球.给出了一个预报地磁暴的实例.两事件的时间间隔约为28h,太阳风的速度约为1 484.1km/s.     

Where do flare ribbons stop?

The standard flare model,which was proposed based on observations and magnetohydrodynamic theory,can successfully explain many observational features of solar flares.However,this model is just a framework,with many details awaiting to be filled in, including how reconnection is triggered.In this paper,we address an unanswered question:where do flare ribbons stop?With the data analysis of the 2003 May 29 flare event,we tentatively confirmed our conjecture that flare ribbons finally stop at the intersection of separatrices(or quasi-separatrix layer in a general case)with the solar surface.Once verified,such a conjecture can be used to predict the final size and even the lifetime of solar flares.     

A UNIFIED MODEL FOR SOLAR FLARES

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中纬度地区粒子沉降和太阳耀斑对甚低频传播的影响分析

通过观测俄罗斯Alpha甚低频导航台到中纬度地区(新乡)之间的甚低频(VLF)信号的相位变化数据,发现在2002-07-17-2002-07-20期间,VLF信号发生了多次相位超前现象,观测到在2002-07-19和2002-07-20发生了高能粒子沉降事件,并分析出此次事件是由2002-07-17和2002-07-18发生的太阳耀斑引起.通过与美国发布的GOES卫星数据进行对比,发现两者的数据有很好的一致性.粒子沉降和太阳耀斑都会使甚低频信号的相位发生相位超前.粒子沉降大多数情况发生在极区,本次在新乡地区观测到高能粒子沉降,是一次极为宝贵的观测数据,对研究中纬度地区的高能粒子沉降有很大的作用.     

定量的太阳活动预报参数研究

Chumak[1987]提出来一个结构参数（文中称为有效距离参数）来定量地描述活动区磁场两极之间相互远离或者相互靠近的程度。这个参数将为定量研究活动区詹场位型演化研究，以及定量研究活动区磁场住型与太阳耀斑，日冕物质抛射等太阳活动的关系等开辟新的思路，Chumak，张洪起和郭娟对于这个参数的研究和应用做了一些研究工作，但是目前对这含参数的应用还不是很多。该文通过实际应用验缸有效距离参数探讨定量太阳活动预报参数的应用。我们将用有效距离参数，总磁通和磁倾角三个参数综合的定量的研究2011年2月15日一次X2.2级耀斑事件的演化情况。     

应用机器学习方法的太阳质子事件短期预报模型

本文选取三个描述太阳活动区磁场复杂性和非势性的特征物理量纵向磁场最大水平梯度｜△↓-hBz｜m,强梯度中性线长度L,孤立奇点数目η.对这三个参量统计计算后结果作为预报因子,应用支持向量机作为预报方法建立一个基于磁场特征物理量的太阳质子事件短期预报模型,该模型可以预报活动区未来24小时是否爆发太阳质子事件.2002和2003年连续两年的样本检测并和基于传统预报因子的模型进行了比对,结果显示预报模型具有较高的准确率和较低的虚报率,从而验证了太阳光球磁场参量作为太阳质子事件预报因子的有效性.     

Super solar particle event around AD775 was found

A rapid radiocarbon14C increase of 120/00in AD774–775 has been reported in cedar and oak tree rings.So far,the origin of the14C increase is still uncertain and the possible origin is either supernova or solar particle event.The most possible origin of14C increase is strong solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections(CMEs)with strong particles emission.Comprehensive approaches to identify the strong historical solar particle events based on the rapid14C/10Be increase in tree/coral rings and ice cores,long duration strong auroras and geomagnetic storms are introduced.Evidence of the super auroras in AD775 was first found in a Chinese Chronicles Jiutangshu and it supports the views that the rapid14C increase and strong auroras around AD775 are most possibly caused by strong solar storms with intense particles emission.It was identified that the solar event around AD775 would be the strongest solar particle event in the past 11400 years.The discovery is significant for the research on the history of solar activities,space weather and forecast,radiation of solar energetic particles and protection.     

Solar activity effects of the ionosphere: A brief review

Solar radiation, which varies over multiple temporal scales, modulates remarkably the evolution of the ionosphere. The solar activity dependence of the ionosphere is a key and fundamental issue in ionospheric physics, providing information essential to understanding the variations in the ionosphere and its processes. Selected recent studies on solar activity effects of the ionosphere are briefly reviewed in this report. This report focuses on (1) observations of solar irradiance at X-ray and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths and the outstanding problems of solar proxies, in the view of ionospheric studies, (2) new findings and improved representations of the features of the solar activity dependence of ionospheric key parameters and the corresponding physical processes, (3) possible phenomena in the ionosphere under extremely high and low solar activity conditions that are unique, as indicated by historical solar datasets and the deep solar minimum of solar cycle 23/24, and (4) statistical studies and model simulations of the ionosphere response to solar flares. The above-mentioned studies provide new clues for comprehensively explaining basic processes in the ionosphere and improving the prediction capability of ionospheric models and related applications.     

Superflares on solar-type stars

Solar flares are caused by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored near sunspots. They release 10(29) to 10(32)?ergs of energy on a timescale of hours. Similar flares have been observed on many stars, with larger 'superflares' seen on a variety of stars, some of which are rapidly rotating and some of which are of ordinary solar type. The small number of superflares observed on solar-type stars has hitherto precluded a detailed study of them. Here we report observations of 365 superflares, including some from slowly rotating solar-type stars, from about 83,000 stars observed over 120 days. Quasi-periodic brightness modulations observed in the solar-type stars suggest that they have much larger starspots than does the Sun. The maximum energy of the flare is not correlated with the stellar rotation period, but the data suggest that superflares occur more frequently on rapidly rotating stars. It has been proposed that hot Jupiters may be important in the generation of superflares on solar-type stars, but none have been discovered around the stars that we have studied, indicating that hot Jupiters associated with superflares are rare.     

Filamentary structure on the Sun from the magnetic Rayleigh-Taylor instability

Magnetic flux emerges from the solar surface as dark filaments connecting small sunspots with opposite polarities. The regions around the dark filaments are often bright in X-rays and are associated with jets. This implies plasma heating and acceleration, which are important for coronal heating. Previous two-dimensional simulations of such regions showed that magnetic reconnection between the coronal magnetic field and the emerging flux produced X-ray jets and flares, but left unresolved the origin of filamentary structure and the intermittent nature of the heating. Here we report three-dimensional simulations of emerging flux showing that the filamentary structure arises spontaneously from the magnetic Rayleigh-Taylor instability, contrary to the previous view that the dark filaments are isolated bundles of magnetic field that rise from the photosphere carrying the dense gas. As a result of the magnetic Rayleigh-Taylor instability, thin current sheets are formed in the emerging flux, and magnetic reconnection occurs between emerging flux and the pre-existing coronal field in a spatially intermittent way. This explains naturally the intermittent nature of coronal heating and the patchy brightenings in solar flares.     

利用GPS方法对1998-11-22太阳耀斑引起的电离层TEC变化的观测研究

利用GPS伪距+载波相位联合数据处理方法具体分析了1998-11-22耀斑爆发期间北京、上海、武汉、西安GPS观测数据得到的电离层TEC。此次耀斑爆发引起了设在北京的高频多普勒长达15min左右的无线电短波中断。通过对GPS得到的电离层TEC进行分析发现： 此次耀斑造成了大面积的电离层TEC的增加,耀斑爆发引起的最大TEC增幅在1.25个TEC单位左右;利用高精度的GPS数据处理方法可研究耀斑引起的电离层扰动。另外,还分析了由GPS计算的TEC的时空变化特点。     

太阳质子峰值流量的极值分布

采用极值统计学方法分析了过去四个太阳活动周[（1965-2005）]中每个太阳活跃年发生的最大质子事件，发现它们的峰值流量服从极值分布，其分布函数表述为：p（x）=1-expt-exp[-0．686（x-7．263）]}，式中随机变量x是峰值流量的自然对数，并且用此分布函数讨论了大流量质子事件的重现期，发现理论预测与实际观测值吻合得很好。     

CaCl2--LiBr(1.35:1)/H2O工质对的热物性及应用

围绕以LiBr/H2O为工质对的单级太阳能吸收式制冷循环因对太阳能集热温度要求高而难以实现应用的问题,提出了CaCl2-LiBr(1.35:1)/H2O(CaCl2与LiBr的质量比为1.35:1)新型工质对,系统地测定了其结晶温度、饱和蒸气压、密度和黏度,并与LiBr/H2 O进行了比较.结果表明,采用CaCl2-LiBr(1.35:1)/H2 O作为太阳能单级吸收式制冷循环的工质对,在同一制冷工况条件下,其发生温度,即太阳能集热温度比采用LiBr/H2 O的情况低6.2℃.另外,采用浸泡法测试了碳钢、316L不锈钢和紫铜在CaCl2-LiBr(1.35:1)/H2 O中的腐蚀速率,结果表明316L不锈钢和紫铜的腐蚀性非常小,可满足实际工程应用的要求.     

An interplanetary shock traced by planetary auroral storms from the Sun to Saturn

A relationship between solar activity and aurorae on Earth was postulated long before space probes directly detected plasma propagating outwards from the Sun. Violent solar eruption events trigger interplanetary shocks that compress Earth's magnetosphere, leading to increased energetic particle precipitation into the ionosphere and subsequent auroral storms. Monitoring shocks is now part of the 'Space Weather' forecast programme aimed at predicting solar-activity-related environmental hazards. The outer planets also experience aurorae, and here we report the discovery of a strong transient polar emission on Saturn, tentatively attributed to the passage of an interplanetary shock--and ultimately to a series of solar coronal mass ejection (CME) events. We could trace the shock-triggered events from Earth, where auroral storms were recorded, to Jupiter, where the auroral activity was strongly enhanced, and to Saturn, where it activated the unusual polar source. This establishes that shocks retain their properties and their ability to trigger planetary auroral activity throughout the Solar System. Our results also reveal differences in the planetary auroral responses on the passing shock, especially in their latitudinal and local time dependences.     

一种新型太阳池吸收式制冷机的设计

针对太阳能以热制冷的利用,文中提出了一种具有聚光装置和追光系统的太阳池吸收式制冷机,将太阳池储存的热量作为热源,驱动制冷机制冷循环.通过加装聚光装置和追光系统提高太阳池吸收太阳辐射的能力,增加吸收太阳能总量.同时给出了200 m2太阳池吸收式制冷机的技术参数,得出200 m2太阳池制冷面积约为472.373 m2.