南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数预测方法研究

利用2004年1月-2009年12月南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡资料和2003年12月-2009年12月南京地面气象观测站逐日气象资料,分析呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与同期和前期气象因素的关系,通过逐步回归按月份建立南京市呼吸及系统疾病逐日死亡人数的预测方程,利用2010年的资料检验预测效果,得出了以下结论:过去2~7 d气温平均值、过去3~7 d气压平均值与死亡人数之间的相关程度均通过了α=0.001水平的相关显著性检验,过去6~7 d的气温48、72 h变幅与死亡人数之间的相关程度也通过了α=0.001水平的相关显著性检验;死亡人数对气温平均值的最强响应在滞后6 d,气压平均值在滞后5 d,风速平均值在滞后1~2 d,过去72 h变温在滞后1~2 d,过去48、72 h气温变幅在滞后6~7 d.回归方程预测的死亡人数与实际死亡人数平均相差2人左右,预测效果优于按季节建立的模型.气象要素及其变化与呼吸系统疾病逐日死亡人数呈显著相关,气象要素对死亡人数的影响具有累积效应,并存在滞后性.     

南京市呼吸系统和循环系统疾病死亡人数与气象因子的关系分析

利用南京市2004-2009年居民死亡资料和同期气象资料,分析了2004-2009年南京市呼吸系统和循环系统疾病死亡人数的年内变化规律,在计算3种人体舒适度基础上研究了上述两大系统疾病死亡人数与气象因子(包括气象要素及人体舒适度在内)之间的关系.结果表明:南京市年内气温呈"Λ"型分布,人体舒适度呈"M"型分布,呼吸系统和循环系统疾病死亡人数的年内分布正好与气温分布呈反位相,即两大系统疾病死亡人数整体上均呈现出冬半年多,夏半年少的分布特点,说明寒冷是诱发两大系统疾病患者死亡的主要气象因素.值得注意的是,两大系统疾病死亡人数在8-9月份又呈现出一个死亡小高峰,这主要是由于高温和季节交替所造成的.呼吸系统和循环系统疾病逐日死亡人数与气象因子显著相关,并对气象因子的响应具有一定的持续效应和滞后性.     

南京地区风寒指数对呼吸系统疾病的影响

基于2005-2008年南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数监测资料、同期气象数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,在风寒指数基础上研究气象要素与呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的相关关系,并进行合成分析和个例分析.结果表明,南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数存在季节性差异,高峰期出现在每年的1、2和12月;气温、气压与呼吸系统疾病死亡人数之间存在显著的相关,相关系数分别为-0.460、0.379,表明气温和气压对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数影响较大,主成分分析法结果也证明了这一点.风寒指数作为反映综合气象因子的指数,相关系数为-0.428,通过了0.01的显著性检验.气象因子和风寒指数对呼吸系统疾病的影响均存在明显的滞后效应,气压和气温在第5天达到最大,风寒指数则在第4天影响最大.利用合成分析发现,造成呼吸系统疾病死亡人数异常偏多的冷空气过程中,显著相关的气象因子是变压、变湿和风寒指数,其阈值分别为8.6 hPa、±0.1和-1.83.利用2005年3月10-12日冷空气过程进行个例分析,结果显示冷空气过程会带来气象要素的一系列变化,该次个例过程地面增压22.1 hPa,风速增加4~m/s,24 h变温达-14℃,并带来降水,风寒指数3 d平均为-2.3,均显著超过阈值范围,最终导致平均呼吸系统疾病日死亡人数远大于4 a日平均值,进一步证实了冷空气过程会导致呼吸系统疾病日死亡人数显著增加,并存在3~4 d的滞后效应.     

冷空气过程与兰州市呼吸系统疾病的关系分析

收集兰州市2001-2005年呼吸系统疾病资料、气象资料和空气污染资料,对呼吸系统疾病发病人数进行统计分析.结果表明:冷空气过程对于呼吸系统疾病有同期、滞后和前期影响.同期影响中,过程持续时间、最低温度降幅、气压升幅以及降水对呼吸系统发病人数影响较大;滞后影响主要存在于冷空气过程后1~4 d,受气压增幅、持续天数、最低温度降幅和降水影响较大;冷空气过程发生前1~3 d对呼吸系统疾病发病有影响,最低温度降幅、持续时间和平均温度降幅影响较大.冷空气过程之前第3天和之后第3、4天大气中可吸入颗粒物浓度对呼吸系统疾病发病有影响.冷空气过程前后气象要素的变化会对呼吸系统疾病产生影响,还可以通过影响大气可吸入颗粒物浓度而进一步影响呼吸系统疾病发病.     

北京市空气质量指数与气象条件的关系及其对呼吸系统疾病的滞后影响

依据北京市2009年1月1日-2011年12月31日的逐日空气质量指数(AQI)与同时段常规地面气象观测数据,区分污染日与非污染日(以轻微污染下界为分界)、不同季节研究了AQI与气象要素的关系;应用分布滞后非线性模型与广义相加模型,在调整气温、相对湿度、风速等混杂效应的基础上,定量计算了AQI对呼吸系统急诊人数的影响及滞后效应.结果表明,研究时段北京AQI的年际波动并不明显,冬季中、重度污染易发;秋季空气优良率最低;春季易发生轻微污染.污染日AQI与平均气压、最高气压显著正相关,与气温、相对湿度负相关;非污染日,AQI与气压、平均/最大风速和日照时数负相关,而与气温、相对湿度、降水量正相关.就诊当天与滞后1 d的AQI对呼吸系统疾病的影响最显著,且危险度(RR)随污染物质量浓度的增大以接近线性形态增大.AQI指数每增加10,北京市呼吸系统急诊就诊人数的RR为0.22%,其95%置信区间为0.104%~0.342%.     

诱发南京地区呼吸系统疾病的气象条件与天气类型分析

利用南京地区2005-2008年冬半年(10月-次年3月)逐日气象资料和同期呼吸系统疾病死亡人数资料,采用"黄金分割法"计算体感温度,划分舒适度指数的方法,分析冬半年呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与舒适度(体感温度)之间的关系,归纳总结了诱发冬半年呼吸系统疾病患者死亡的天气类型.结果表明,呼吸系统疾病死亡人数随着平均体感温度的降低而升高,当冬半年体感温度达12℃和2℃C时,为南京地区呼吸系统疾病的警戒温度,呼吸系统疾病患者需注意防范.极端低温的天气条件是呼吸系统疾病患者死亡的高发期,尤其是舒适度等级为微冷时,微冷日数约占死亡高峰日总数的61.1%;诱发冬半年呼吸系统疾病患者死亡的天气类型可以分为6种,冷空气活动引起的气温低和气温日较差大是导致冬半年呼吸系统疾病患者发病、病情加重或死亡的主要原因.     

兰州市大气污染对人体呼吸系统疾病的影响

通过分析2001-2005年兰州市呼吸系统疾病日就诊人数和主要大气污染物的年变化特征,采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型,在控制人群的长期趋势、节假日效应、星期几效应和气象要素等混杂因素的基础上,定量分析了不同季节兰州市主要大气污染物质量浓度变化与呼吸系统疾病日就诊人数之间的关系.结果表明,兰州市夏、秋季人体呼吸系统疾病受气温、气压等气象要素和其他因素的影响较大,冬、春季受大气污染物的影响较显著,研究兰州市大气污染对人体呼吸系统疾病的影响以冬、春季为主.冬季3种污染物对人体呼吸系统疾病均有一定的影响,春季SO_2和NO_2的影响更明显,当SO_2质量浓度增加10μg/m~3时,呼吸系统疾病影响较大的人群入院人数的相对危险度(RR)依次为:全人群1.015(1.005~1.025),男性1.015(1.001~1.028),60岁人群1.028(1.011~1.046);当NO_2质量浓度增加10μg/m~3时,影响较大人群人院人数的RR依次为:全人群1.039(1.014~1.066),女性1.050(1.009~1.094),≥60岁人群1.038(1.00l~1.075).兰州市大气污染对人体呼吸系统疾病的影响冬、春季比较显著;冬季3种污染物均有一定的影响,春季SO_2和NO_2对人体呼吸系统疾病日入院人数影响较明显,且冬、春季污染物对人体呼吸系统疾病影响的滞后效应具有一定差异;呼吸系统疾病在冬季时3种污染物均是≥60岁的人群比60岁的人群敏感,女性比男性敏感;春季时,女性和≥60岁的人群对NO_2敏感,男性和60岁的人群对SO_2敏感.     

热指数对阜南地区呼吸系统疾病的影响

选取安徽省阜阳市阜南县14个乡镇2013年1月1日-2016年12月31日呼吸系统疾病日住院就诊资料50 881例,在Spearman相关性分析的基础上,用分布滞后非线性模型与广义相加模型相结合,对呼吸系统疾病住院人数与各气象要素的相关性进行了分析,其与平均气温、相对湿度和热指数呈负相关,与平均气压、平均风速呈正相关.结果表明,热指数是比温度、湿度等单独作用更全面的气象指标.引起呼吸系统疾病发病风险增高的主要原因是低热指数,低热指数对呼吸系统疾病住院人数的影响表现为长期效应,滞后6～8 d是主要发病时间.不同季节热指数滞后效应的结果不同,夏季的低热指数易导致患病风险增加;冬季高热指数滞后8 d时易增加患病风险.     

兰州市大气环境因素对过敏性鼻炎和慢性鼻炎的影响

利用兰州市2009-2011年过敏性鼻炎和慢性鼻炎逐日就诊人数和同期气象资料数据,研究了各季节大气环境因素对过敏性鼻炎和慢性鼻炎的影响.结果表明,过敏性鼻炎和慢性鼻炎对大气环境因子的响应存在滞后性,过敏性鼻炎春、夏、冬季单滞后4~6 d,秋季累积滞后4~6 d;慢性鼻炎各季节均单滞后3~5 d.冬、春、夏季,过敏性鼻炎受空气质量的影响较显著,空气质量差、风速小、空气湿度大、日平均气温较高时,不利于污染物扩散,发病人数增加,秋季日气温较高、空气湿度较大、日平均风速较高时,空气中过敏原(花粉等)增加,容易引发过敏性鼻炎.在春、夏、秋季,空气质量对慢性鼻炎日就诊人数的影响显著,空气质量越差、风速越小、空气较为湿润、气温日较差越大,越容易引发慢性鼻炎.     

广义相加模型在高温热浪对呼吸系统疾病影响研究中的应用

运用广义相加模型探讨南京市高温热浪对当地居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响,结果表明呼吸系统疾病总人数受到当日最高温度、死亡前1d、6d的日最高气温的影响。影响最大的因素是当日最高温度,其RR值为0.886(95%CI:0.771～0.972)。男性主要受到死亡前6d的日最高气温影响,女性受到当日最高温度以及死亡前1d的日最高气温的影响。60岁以上的老年人主要受到当日的平均温度、死亡前1d以及死亡前6d的日最高气温的影响。影响最大的因素是死亡前1d的日最高温度,其RR值1.095(95%CI:1.03～1.163)。广义相加模型预测的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与实际死亡人数较相近,上升与下降的变化趋势基本一致。     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Characterization of Ordovician carbonate reservoirs, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada

The discovery of the prolific Ordovician Red River reservoirs in 1995 in southeastern Saskatchewan was the catalyst for extensive exploration activity which resulted in the discovery of more than 15 new Red River pools. The best yields of Red River production to date have been from dolomite reservoirs. Understanding the processes of dolomitization is, therefore, crucial for the prediction of the connectivity, spatial distribution and heterogeneity of dolomite reservoirs.The Red River reservoirs in the Midale area consist of 3～4 thin dolomitized zones, with a total thickness of about 20 m, which occur at the top of the Yeoman Formation. Two types of replacement dolomite were recognized in the Red River reservoir: dolomitized burrow infills and dolomitized host matrix. The spatial distribution of dolomite suggests that burrowing organisms played an important role in facilitating the fluid flow in the backfilled sediments. This resulted in penecontemporaneous dolomitization of burrow infills by normal seawater. The dolomite in the host matrix is interpreted as having occurred at shallow burial by evaporitic seawater during precipitation of Lake Almar anhydrite that immediately overlies the Yeoman Formation. However, the low δ18O values of dolomited burrow infills (-5.9‰～ -7.8‰, PDB) and matrix dolomites (-6.6‰～ -8.1‰, avg. -7.4‰ PDB) compared to the estimated values for the late Ordovician marine dolomite could be attributed to modification and alteration of dolomite at higher temperatures during deeper burial, which could also be responsible for its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7084～0.7088) that are higher than suggested for the late Ordovician seawaters (0.7078～0.7080). The trace amounts of saddle dolomite cement in the Red River carbonates are probably related to "cannibalization" of earlier replacement dolomite during the chemical compaction.     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.     

A computer generator for randomly layered structures

AcomputergeneratorforrandomlylayeredstructuresYUJia shun1,2,HEZhen hua2(1.TheInstituteofGeologicalandNuclearSciences,NewZealand;2.StateKeyLaboratoryofOilandGasReservoirGeologyandExploitation,ChengduUniversityofTechnology,China)Abstract:Analgorithmisintrod…     

An Index mechanism for multi-scale view in spatial databases

There are numerous geometric objects stored in the spatial databases. An importance function in a spatial database is that users can browse the geometric objects as a map efficiently. Thus the spatial database should display the geometric objects users concern about swiftly onto the display window. This process includes two operations:retrieve data from database and then draw them onto screen. Accordingly, to improve the efficiency, we should try to reduce time of both retrieving object and displaying them. The former can be achieved with the aid of spatial index such as R-tree, the latter require to simplify the objects. Simplification means that objects are shown with sufficient but not with unnecessary detail which depend on the scale of browse. So the major problem is how to retrieve data at different detail level efficiently. This paper introduces the implementation of a multi-scale index in the spatial database SISP (Spatial Information Shared Platform) which is generalized from R-tree. The difference between the generalization and the R-tree lies on two facets: One is that every node and geometric object in the generalization is assigned with a importance value which denote the importance of them, and every vertex in the objects are assigned with a importance value,too. The importance value can be use to decide which data should be retrieve from disk in a query. The other difference is that geometric objects in the generalization are divided into one or more sub-blocks, and vertexes are total ordered by their importance value. With the help of the generalized R-tree, one can easily retrieve data at different detail levels.Some experiments are performed on real-life data to evaluate the performance of solutions that separately use normal spatial index and multi-scale spatial index. The results show that the solution using multi-scale index in SISP is satisfying.     

Achieving Unusual States of Matter Under High Pressure

正The periodicity of the elements and the non-reactivity of the inner-shell electrons are two related principles of chemistry,rooted in the atomic shell structure.Within compounds,Group I elements,for example,invariably assume the+1 oxidation state,and their chemical properties differ completely from those of the p-block elements.These general rules govern our understanding of chemical structures and reactions.Using first principles calcula-     

Exchange-Correlation and Electronic Excitation Energies from Pairing Matrix Fluctuations

We have developed an adiabatic connection to formulate the ground-state exchange-correlation energy in terms of pairing matrix linear fluctuations.This formulation of the exchange-correlation energy opens a new channel for density functional approximations based on the many-body perturbation theory.We illustrate the potential of such approaches with an approximation based on the particle-particle Random Phase Approximation(pp-RPA).This re-     

Density Functional Theory for the Response of Periodic Systems to Electric Fields Based on the Vector Potential Approach

正The electronic and nuclear(structural/vibrational)response of 1D-3D nanoscale systems to electric fields gives rise to a host of optical,mechanical,spectral,etc.properties that are of high theoretical and applied interest.Due to the computational difficulty of treating such large systems it is convenient to model them as infinite and periodic(at least,in first approximation).The fundamental theoretical/computational problem in doing so is that     

On the Thermodynamic Limit for Responses to Static Electromagnetic Fields

For molecular systems,the quantum-mechanical treatment of their responses to static electromagnetic fields usually employs a scalar-potential treatment of the electric field and a vector-potential treatment of the magnetic field.Although the potential for each field separately is associated with the choice of an(unphysical)origin,the precise choice of the origin for the electrostatic field has little consequences for the results.This is different for the