陕北黄土区土壤入渗模型的比较探讨

利用实验数据对3个经验公式进行回归分析得出,通用公式更适合于陕北黄土丘陵区土壤入渗率。地表植被对土壤入渗率有明显影响,油松林地土壤入渗率普遍大于荒地,地貌对入渗率也有影响,上部入渗率>中部入渗率>下部入渗率,大部分情况下阴坡的入渗率都大于阳坡。图4,表1,参3。     

坡面水蚀与细沟发育过程模拟研究

为了分析次降雨过程中的细沟发育规律,提出从二维浅水方程和泥沙输移方程出发建立坡面水蚀模型,利用有限体积法模拟坡面径流与侵蚀产沙的时空分布及微地貌发育过程的方法。模型由二维浅水方程、Green-Ampt入渗模型、Gash林冠截留模型以及经验侵蚀与沉积公式组成,具有易于实现的优点。通过对摩阻源项进行点隐式处理,提高了数值稳定性,可处理干床面和微小水深。结果表明,模型能够模拟复杂坡面在次降雨过程中的径流侵蚀及细沟发育规律。     

基于Kriging模型的喷丸强化残余应力场数值分析

针对喷丸强化过程数值仿真及强化效果快速预测方法进行了深入研究。针对航空铝合金材料,利用显式动力分析软件LS-DYNA,进行了喷丸强化过程有限元数值仿真,研究了球形弹丸速度、弹丸大小、入射角度对喷丸残余应力场的影响规律;提出了基于Kriging模型的喷丸强化效果快速预测方法;进行概率有限元分析,建立了喷丸强化Kriging数值模型,并构建了关键响应参数与多维工艺变量之间的响应曲面。分析结果表明,喷丸速度、弹丸大小、入射角度对残余应力场分布有显著影响。Kriging近似模型预测结果与有限元计算结果相吻合,说明所建立的Kriging近似模型具有很高的近似精度和可靠性,可以代替复杂的有限元分析。     

仿射利率模型下的最优再保险-投资策略

研究仿射利率模型下的最优投资与再保险策略问题。保险公司通过购买比例再保险来分担公司风险,并将财富投资于金融市场。金融市场包括一种无风险资产、一种风险资产和一种零息票债券,其中无风险利率是服从仿射利率模型的随机过程,盈余过程遵循带漂移的布朗运动。文章应用动态规划原理得到了指数效用下最优再保险-投资策略的显式解,并给出数值算例分析了市场参数对最优再保险-投资策略的影响。     

基于中断率分析的编码协作通信功率分配方法

基于瑞利信道下编码协作的中断率分析提出了一种功率优化分配方案.该方案首先通过一种近似方法化简了中断率积分,其次利用泰勒级数展开得到了系统中断率近似界的简单表达式,最后以最小化系统中断率为目标,并以该近似解界为目标函数得到了功率优化分配系数的数学团式解.仿真证明该近似界是一条紧界.同时发现随着中继与目的端之间信道状况的改善,采用功率优化分配方法使系统中断率和误码率性能均有明显提升.     

基于随机波动率模型的路径依赖期权定价

在随机波动率框架下,对两种典型路径依赖期权进行定价.在期权标的资产价格的波动率是一个快速均值回归随机过程的假设下,研究了几何亚式看涨期权和浮动行权价回望看跌期权这两类路径依赖期权的定价问题.通过奇异摄动分析方法,对均值回归随机波动模型的偏微分方程进行分析得到关于期权近似价格的两个近似表示项,并推导出上述两种路径依赖期权的近似解析解.     

降雨入渗和再分布对边坡土壤水分运移的数值模拟研究

根据饱和-非饱和土壤水分运移的混合型Darcy-Richards方程,建立了降雨入渗和再分布条件下非饱和边坡土壤水分运移模型,并采用有限差分方法对模型进行数值求解,选取广州西二环高速公路C10标的路堑边坡进行降雨入渗和再分布下坡面土壤水分分布的动态规律研究.模拟结果表明:随着降雨历时的增加,湿润锋面逐渐向下推进,当入渗时间达到8小时后,土壤中体积含水量达到饱和含水量.降雨5小时后停止降雨,分析边坡表层土壤再分布下含水量的递减随时间的变化关系为y=0.2526262+0.1742exp(-t/8.70805).数值模拟及分析结果可为边坡排水加固设计提供定量依据,并对边坡稳定性评价具有理论意义和现实意义.     

Crank-Nicolson差分法下利率扩散模型估计效率研究

用Crank-Nicolson差分法求解利率扩散模型的Fokker-Planck偏微分方程，得到模型转移密度的近似解，并与模型的转移密度闭端解以及Euler法下的近似解进行比较，同时也比较这种方法在模型参数识别方面的效率。     

混合分数布朗运动下可转债定价模型研究

标的股价用混合分数布朗运动驱动的随机微分方程刻画,其中分数布朗运动的Hurst参数H满足1/2H1,用于描述股价的长记忆性,利率服从Vasicek过程,违约风险用约化方法处理,建立可转债定价模型.通过引入投资者的风险偏好态度以及对效用函数的限制使得可转债的风险中性定价关系存在,基于市场均衡条件得到平均风险中性测度,利用风险中性定价原理得出可转债定价公式,及其关于Hurst参数的导数的显式表达式.结果表明Hurst参数通过影响条件股价过程的积分波动率而影响可转债价值.     

分析事故再现仿真结果不确定性的一种方法

事故再现仿真中包含很多不确定参数,将这些参数所包含的不确定性引入到仿真结果中去,可使结果更为客观与可信.借助拉丁超立方试验设计(LHS)与蒙特卡洛方法,提出一种基于LHs的事故再现仿真结果不确定性分析方法.该方法用LHs生成试验样本集,据此安排试验并获试验结果,再通过回归分析获得与原事故再现仿真模型近似的响应面模型,最后通过结合所得响应面模型与蒙特卡洛方法确定事故再现结果的取值范围;将此方法应用到一具有显式表达式的算例中,结果显示本方法所得结果与蒙特卡洛方法及不确定度评定基本方法所得非常接近,最后用一个真实案例演示了方法的实用性.     

土壤质地、密度及供水方式对点源入渗特性的影响

土壤质地、滴头流量、土壤密度以及供水方式等因素对于点源入渗有着一定的影响。实验研究表明,随着土壤密度和滴头流量的增加。点源入渗水平向湿润锋的分布距离加大,垂向入渗距离相应减小,土壤湿润体的形状趋向于扁平状。随着土壤质地变轻、点源入渗的垂向入渗速率依次增强,导致点源入渗水分水平方向的入渗能力降低。在灌水定额相同的条件下,采用大滴头流量(4L／h)间歇滴灌同采用小滴头流量(2L／h)连续滴灌相比较,间歇滴灌在增加水平湿润距离的前提下垂向入渗距离减小15％。图9,表1,参8。     

The 12th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management ICSSSM'15

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Enterprise resource planning implementation decision & optimization models

To study the uncertain optimization problems on implementation schedule, time-cost trade-off and quality in enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementation, combined with program evaluation and review technique (PERT), some optimization models are proposed, which include the implementation schedule model, the timecost trade-off model, the quality model, and the implementation time-cost-quality synthetic optimization model. A PERT-embedded genetic algorithm (GA) based on stochastic simulation technique is introduced to the optimization models solution. Finally, an example is presented to show that the models and algorithm are reasonable and effective, which can offer a reliable quantitative decision method for ERP implementation.     

A calculus for services innovation

Innovation in the services area - especially in the electronic services （e-services） domain - can be systematically developed by first considering the strategic drivers and foci, then the tactical principles and enablers, and finally the operational decision attributes, all of which constitute a process or calculus of services innovation. More specifically, there are four customer drivers （i.e., collaboration, customization, integration and adaptation）, three business foci （i.e., creation-focused, solution-focused and competition-focused）, six business principles （i.e., reconstruct market boundaries, focus on the big picture not numbers, reach beyond existing demand, get strategic sequence right, overcome organizational hurdles and build execution into strategy）, eight technical enablers （i.e., software algorithms, automation, telecommunication, collaboration, standardization, customization, organization, and globalization）, and six attributes of decision informatics （i.e., decision-driven, information-based, real-time, continuously-adaptive, customer-centric and computationally-intensive）. It should be noted that the four customer drivers are all directed at empowering the individual - that is, at recognizing that the individual can, respectively, contribute in a collaborative situation, receive customized or personalized attention, access an integrated system or process, and obtain adaptive real-time or just-in-time input. The developed process or calculus serves to identify the potential white spaces or blue oceans for innovation. In addition to expanding on current innovations in services and related experiences, white spaces are identified for possible future innovations; they include those that can mitigate the unforeseen consequences or abuses of earlier innovations, safeguard our rights to privacy, protect us from the always-on, interconnected world, provide us with an authoritative search engine, and generate a GDP metric that can adequately measure the growing knowledge economy,     

THE 8~(th) INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON INDUSTRIAL AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS

正August 10-14,2015Beijing,China The International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics(IClAM)is the premier international congress in the field ofapplied mathematics held every four years under the auspices ofthe International Council for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.From August 10 to 14,2015,mathematicians,scientists and entrepreneurs fiom around the world will gather in Beijing,China for the 8th IClAM to be held at     

论生物系统中的功能不守恒性

根据能量守恒定律，能量一次转换所做的总功应等于输入的总能量。但在生物系统中，能量的转换是多次的，其总功之和大于系统输入的总能量，此现象称之为功能不守恒性。能量转换效率越高，功能差别越大。能量通过细胞水平的多次转换，总功可提高至2倍左右。能量通过生态系统水平多次转换，总功可提高至1．4倍左右。通过系统内各子系统能流之和称为序能，反映了系统有序性大小，它取决于系统输入总能量和能量转换效率。根据序能原理，用GDP^2／9(GDP为国内生产总值，Q为能量总输入)反映人类社会功能和效率，要比单纯用GDP更客观。绿色GDP应同时考虑使GDP^2／Q增长最大和使自然生态系统的序能最大。人的经济行为和动物的行为对策也符合序能原理。     

Dealing with Human Relations in Chinese Systems Practice

This paper is about the Wuli, Shili, Renli (WSR) systems methodology. An important concept within this, Renli, has been developed from Confucian philosophy to clarify to Chinese researchers the necessity of dealing with human relations in systems practice. At present, the only formal means of operationalizing Renli that people are exploring in China is to import from the West methods for organizing debate. However, the concept of Renli suggests that more is needed than methods alone. In particular, facilitation skills are required. It is argued that the development of facilitation skills can be enhanced if researchers can gain both theoretical and practical knowledge of group dynamics, and engage in activities of self-reflection to look at, and alter, their own roles in these dynamics and the wider sociopolitical system. There are therefore three aspects to Renli: the use of systems methods for organizing debate, the acquisition of facilitation skills, and self-reflection geared toward the development of facilitation skills and enhanced critical awareness of the politics of intervention.