基于多信息融合的海洋监视卫星侦察效能分析

基于多探测器数据融合,提出了一种应用于海洋监视卫星截获概率与目标识别分析的研究方法。建立了基于多维信息融合的截获概率理论模型,并开展了基于假定战场场景的数值仿真,仿真结果表明联合成像侦察、雷达侦察和通信侦察,可以提高对目标的截获概率;采取支持向量机方法进行了多维信息融合,融合结果表明联合成像侦察和通信侦察可以实现对目标的识别。     

新型舰载武器海浪冲击仿真系统开发

叙述了舰载武器系统定型试验现状与发展趋势,介绍了海浪冲击仿真系统的设计指标及组成,分析了海浪冲击模拟、舰船运动模型建立等关键问题,利用等效原理,采用信号注入式仿真方法,将海浪冲击叠加到飞行航路模型上,实现了舰裁武器陆上斌验海浪冲击的模拟,仿真试验结果表明,新的仿真方法与系统完全满足武器系统定型试验需求.     

基于BP网络和序优化方法的火控攻击方案寻优

火控攻击方案寻优是一个基于仿真的优化问题,针对传统优化方法计算量大而且耗时多的不足,运用序优化理论通过排序比较和目标软化等思想来缩小搜索空间、提高搜索效率。首先建立了以导弹目标截获概率为效能指标的方案评估精确模型,然后用拟合后的基于误差反向传播（back propagation, BP）算法的神经网络作为粗糙评估模型,最后运用序优化搜寻达到一定目标截获概率的较优火控攻击方案。算例分析表明,序优化方法能在确保以足够高的概率寻得足够好方案的同时,有效提高搜索效率。     

导航系统使用的地形相关设备的截获概率分析研究和试验结果

本文对相关设备的截获概率方程进行了研究,截获概率方程可用来帮助设计相关导航系统和帮助规划有关任务。在这篇报告中,给出了两种不同相关算法,即乘积算法和平均绝对差(MAD)算法的概率方程的推导过程。使用机载地形遥感器进行了实际飞行试验,相关结果与理论截获概率进行了比较。理论与实验的一致性表明,概率方程是确定诸如中段系统精度,计算机容量,遥感器视野和系统信噪比等相关系统设计参数的有效数学工具。     

机翼结冰后人-机系统动态特性仿真与风险评估

机翼结冰导致气动特性改变,为了定量分析机翼结冰导致的飞行风险,提出了利用人-机系统数值仿真数据进行概率评估的方法.考虑结冰对临界迎角、升阻特性等的影响,通过建立非线性动力学仿真模型和特殊情况下驾驶员操纵副翼偏转模型,实现了机翼结冰后的人-机系统动态仿真.分析了非指令控制滚转不正常现象,并通过影响因子的概率分布模型,最终实现了飞行风险概率评估.     

陆海空通用三维多波束目标截获雷达

荷兰电信公司(SIGNAAL)已研制出了一种新型的可用于海上、陆地和机上多波束目标截获雷达。 用于海上的称为电信公司多波束目标截获雷达系统,简称SMART系统。这是一种高性能、全天候、三维监视和武器控制系统,用以对付小型、高速导弹。这种导弹通常或者是掠海飞行或者是以70°或更大的大角度袭来,其雷达截面仅0.1米~2,而逼近速度却高达3马赫以上。     

导弹制导精度与杀伤概率一体化仿真

制导精度仿真和杀伤概率仿真是武器系统效能仿真的重要组成部分,在传统仿真系统设计和仿真试验中一般分别进行.通过对两者仿真模型有机结合,实现了制导精度与杀伤概率的一体化仿真,给出了仿真流程,并对一体化设计结果的可信度进行了初步研究,具有较强的通用性.制导精度与杀伤概率一体化仿真不但实现了导弹拦截目标的全过程仿真,而且节约了设计开发资源,为实现作战效能评估和攻防对抗等大型仿真系统建设奠定了技术基础.     

面向海上移动目标的空天协同连续观测模型

由于视距限制,对海上移动目标进行连续观测与定位探测难度较大.现有方法通过卫星和无人机等单平台对目标进行观测,不能解决面向海上移动目标连续观测的问题.针对当前单个平台的不足,本文构建了面向海上移动目标的空天协同连续观测模型,并提出了空天协同连续观测策略.空天协同连续观测策略抽取出卫星规划、无人机飞行计划、观测序列、区域预测以及路径规划等五个子问题,并对其进行建模求解.仿真实验表明,该方法大大降低了目标的平均观测周期,有效解决了海上移动目标连续观测问题.     

双机空战效能评估的半实物仿真方法研究

简述了双机空战效能评估研究的重要意义,讨论了在实验室条件下,利用地面飞行模拟器进行双机空战效能评估的半实物仿真系统的组成和工作原理,着重研究了几个关键技术问题：１.双机空战仿真流程设计;２.机载雷达目标发现概率计算;３.空－空导弹可攻击区模型建立;４.空战结果评估与分析。     

面向高技术条件下滨海作战的陆海战斗模型(英文)

传统的作战模型难以很好描述在滨海地区爆发的装备精良、训练有素的现代化海上力量与装备了反舰导弹的陆上力量之间的作战行动。通过分析高技术条件下滨海作战行动的特征,提出了一种与之对应的陆海战斗模型。在新的模型中,海上力量的消耗符合休斯齐射模型,而兰切斯特线性律和平方律则被应用于描述陆上力量的消耗。通过仿真得到了四点结论,这些结论对于高技术条件下滨海地区作战过程的研究有一定参考价值。新的作战模型能对滨海地区作战仿真系统的建设提供理论帮助。     

The 12th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management ICSSSM'15

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Enterprise resource planning implementation decision & optimization models

To study the uncertain optimization problems on implementation schedule, time-cost trade-off and quality in enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementation, combined with program evaluation and review technique (PERT), some optimization models are proposed, which include the implementation schedule model, the timecost trade-off model, the quality model, and the implementation time-cost-quality synthetic optimization model. A PERT-embedded genetic algorithm (GA) based on stochastic simulation technique is introduced to the optimization models solution. Finally, an example is presented to show that the models and algorithm are reasonable and effective, which can offer a reliable quantitative decision method for ERP implementation.     

A calculus for services innovation

Innovation in the services area - especially in the electronic services （e-services） domain - can be systematically developed by first considering the strategic drivers and foci, then the tactical principles and enablers, and finally the operational decision attributes, all of which constitute a process or calculus of services innovation. More specifically, there are four customer drivers （i.e., collaboration, customization, integration and adaptation）, three business foci （i.e., creation-focused, solution-focused and competition-focused）, six business principles （i.e., reconstruct market boundaries, focus on the big picture not numbers, reach beyond existing demand, get strategic sequence right, overcome organizational hurdles and build execution into strategy）, eight technical enablers （i.e., software algorithms, automation, telecommunication, collaboration, standardization, customization, organization, and globalization）, and six attributes of decision informatics （i.e., decision-driven, information-based, real-time, continuously-adaptive, customer-centric and computationally-intensive）. It should be noted that the four customer drivers are all directed at empowering the individual - that is, at recognizing that the individual can, respectively, contribute in a collaborative situation, receive customized or personalized attention, access an integrated system or process, and obtain adaptive real-time or just-in-time input. The developed process or calculus serves to identify the potential white spaces or blue oceans for innovation. In addition to expanding on current innovations in services and related experiences, white spaces are identified for possible future innovations; they include those that can mitigate the unforeseen consequences or abuses of earlier innovations, safeguard our rights to privacy, protect us from the always-on, interconnected world, provide us with an authoritative search engine, and generate a GDP metric that can adequately measure the growing knowledge economy,     

论生物系统中的功能不守恒性

根据能量守恒定律，能量一次转换所做的总功应等于输入的总能量。但在生物系统中，能量的转换是多次的，其总功之和大于系统输入的总能量，此现象称之为功能不守恒性。能量转换效率越高，功能差别越大。能量通过细胞水平的多次转换，总功可提高至2倍左右。能量通过生态系统水平多次转换，总功可提高至1．4倍左右。通过系统内各子系统能流之和称为序能，反映了系统有序性大小，它取决于系统输入总能量和能量转换效率。根据序能原理，用GDP^2／9(GDP为国内生产总值，Q为能量总输入)反映人类社会功能和效率，要比单纯用GDP更客观。绿色GDP应同时考虑使GDP^2／Q增长最大和使自然生态系统的序能最大。人的经济行为和动物的行为对策也符合序能原理。     

Dealing with Human Relations in Chinese Systems Practice

This paper is about the Wuli, Shili, Renli (WSR) systems methodology. An important concept within this, Renli, has been developed from Confucian philosophy to clarify to Chinese researchers the necessity of dealing with human relations in systems practice. At present, the only formal means of operationalizing Renli that people are exploring in China is to import from the West methods for organizing debate. However, the concept of Renli suggests that more is needed than methods alone. In particular, facilitation skills are required. It is argued that the development of facilitation skills can be enhanced if researchers can gain both theoretical and practical knowledge of group dynamics, and engage in activities of self-reflection to look at, and alter, their own roles in these dynamics and the wider sociopolitical system. There are therefore three aspects to Renli: the use of systems methods for organizing debate, the acquisition of facilitation skills, and self-reflection geared toward the development of facilitation skills and enhanced critical awareness of the politics of intervention.     

云环境中邮件服务器面向传输的优化设计

随着云计算的发展,新的应用不断涌现,但电子邮件服务依然占有着重要的地位.邮件服务器是一种I/O密集的应用.在云计算时代,越来越多的用户邮件保存在服务器端,邮件在从客户端传输到服务器端之前,邮件或者邮件的部分内容在服务器端可能已经存在.基于这种现象,提出了一种方案,通过引入计算的代价来降低通信量,从而提高邮件服务器的处理能力.对电子邮件的格式和SMTP协议进行了扩充,引入了附件和正文分离传输的模式.在邮件传输时,客户端先计算附件的散列值,并作为正文的一部分传输到服务器端,服务器端再根据散列值来判断附件是否需要传输.     

金工工艺的优化设计

运用价值工程与运筹工程理论, 在金工工艺单项设计指标优化的基础上, 对其设计指标也进行了全面优化。     

THE 8~(th) INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON INDUSTRIAL AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS

正August 10-14,2015Beijing,China The International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics(IClAM)is the premier international congress in the field ofapplied mathematics held every four years under the auspices ofthe International Council for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.From August 10 to 14,2015,mathematicians,scientists and entrepreneurs fiom around the world will gather in Beijing,China for the 8th IClAM to be held at     

基于动力学仿真的多管火箭多因素分析

多管火箭武器的系统效能有多个指标,而每个指标又受到多个因素复合影响。按照武器系统效能分析的递阶层次,梳理了多管火箭性能分析的多因素问题。提出了基于虚拟样机动力学仿真过程多因素问题的数据挖掘方法及分析手段,弥补了传统方法对多因素问题决策分析的不足。并以多管火箭系统效能第四级指标起始扰动的三种影响因素为例进行了研究和验证。