Fuzzy preferences in conflicts

A systematic fuzzy approach is developed to model fuzziness and uncertainties in the preferences of decision makers involved in a conflict. This unique fuzzy preference formulation is used within the paradigm of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution in which a given dispute is modeled in terms of decision makers, each decision maker＇s courses of actions or options, and each decision maker＇s preferences concerning the states or outcomes which could take place. In order to be able to determine the stability of each state for each decision maker and the possible equilibria or resolutions, a range of solution concepts describing potential human behavior under conflict are defined for use with fuzzy preferences. More specifically, strong and weak definitions of stability are provided for the solution concepts called Nash, general metarational, symmetric metarational, and sequential stability. To illustrate how these solution concepts can be conveniently used in practice, they are applied to a dispute over the contamination of an aquifer by a chemical company located in Elmira, Ontario, Canada.     

Conflict measure model for large group decision based on interval intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number and its application

The problem of measuring conflict in large-group decision making is examined with every decision preference expressed by multiple interval intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers （IITFNs）. First, a distance measurement between two IITFNs is given and a function of conflict between two members of the large group is proposed. Second, members of the large group are clustered. A measurement model of group conflict, which is applied to aggregating large-group preferences, is then proposed by employing the conflict measure of clusters. Finally, a simulation example is presented to validate the models. These models can deal with the preference analysis and coordination of a large-group decision, and are thus applicable to emergency group decision making.     

Study on the Reliability Evaluation of Qualitative Indices in Multi-Objective Decision

Qualitative indices in multi-objective decision can usually be evaluated and measured by mathematical methods or models, but the obtained results are sometimes inaccurate because of fuzziness of indices. To improve the accuracy and reliability of the evaluation results, set-value statistic principle is applied, and accordingly four evaluation methods are obtained. Meanwhile, these methods are compared briefly.     

Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.     

FUZZY SATISFYING INTERACTIVE MULTIOBJECTIVE THERMAL POWER DISPATCH： SWT APPROACH

In multiobjective optimization, trade-off analysis plays an important role in determining most preferred solution. This paper presents an explicit interactive trade-off analysis based on the surrogate worth trade-off function to determine the best compromised solution. In the multiobjective framework thermal power dispatch problem is undertaken in which four objectives viz. cost, NOx emission, SOx emission and COx emission are minimized simultaneously. The interactive process is implemented using a weighting method by regulating the relative weights of objectives in systematic manner. Hence the weighting method facilitates to simulate the trade-offrelation between the conflicting objectives in non-inferior domain. Exploiting fuzzy decision making theory to access the indifference band, interaction with the decision maker is obtained via surrogate worth trade-off （SWT） functions of the objectives. The surrogate worth trade-off functions are constructed in the functional space and then transformed into the decision space, so the surrogate worth trade-off functions of objectives relate the decision maker＇s preferences to non-inferior solutions through optimal weight patterns. The optimal solution of thermal power dispatch problem is obtained by considering real and reactive power losses. Decoupled load flow analysis is performed to find the transmission losses. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated on 11-bus, 17-lines IEEE system, comprising of three generators.     

Method for multiple attribute decision making based on incomplete linguistic judgment matrix

With respect to the multiple attribute decision making problems with linguistic preference relations on alternatives in the form of incomplete linguistic judgment matrix, a method is proposed to analyze the decision problem. The incomplete linguistic judgment matrix is transformed into incomplete fuzzy judgment matrix and an optimization model is developed on the basis of incomplete fuzzy judgment matrix provided by the decision maker and the decision matrix to determine attribute weights by Lagrange multiplier method. Then the overall values of all alternatives are calculated to rank them. A numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and practicality of the proposed method.     

Dominating attitudes in the graph model for conflict resolution

A formal methodology for analyzing the importance of weighing a decision maker’s attitudes in a conflict is introduced and applied to the problem of negotiating a fair transfer of a brownfield property. A decision maker’s attitudes are expressed in his consideration of his own preferences,as well as those of his opponents.Dominating attitudes are used to suggest that in a circumstance in which a decision maker takes into account multiple perspectives due to his attitudes,he may favor one perspective more heavily.The analysis of a brownfield acquisition conflict illustrates the types of insights that this methodology reveals.     

COMPARISON OF THE ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS AND THE GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION

1. Introduction A strategic conflict is a situation in which two or more decision-makers are to make a decision that affects issues they have different preferences about (Fang et al. 1993). Conflicts are one of the most characteristic attributes of human societies. Various forms of strategic conflict exist all around us, in areas such as environmental management, international rela-tions, economic competition, and relationships among individuals. Conflicts are studied in a wide range of disci…     

New Explorations for Decision Trees

1. INTannVCTIONThere axe mny techulques to rePresat and soho a decision Problem, such as deci8ion trees, game trees, strategicforms, algebric aPproathes, chence diapams, sequentiaJ decision diagrams, edation bos [1~7]. AinongtheIn, a fundameniaJ and allo the most populaI mathOd is decision tree. All Other methods are the edensionsor genertheation of decision trees. Bat nearly all these te~s are used to the an OPthoal sohibo to adecision prob1em. Whn we rePMed and sOlve a decision pro…     

Integrating complex system dynamics of pandemic influenza with a multi-criteria decision making model for evaluating public health strategies

Recent developments in computational sciences and computer modeling have allowed emergency preparedness exercises to include simulation models as supporting tools.These simulation models are generally built for predicting temporal and geographic patterns of disease spread.However sole use of simulation models in exercise design falls short in terms of incorporating policy decision makers’ preferences into decision-making processes.In this paper,a general framework for exercising public health preparedness plans with a decision support system is presented to integrate estimation of key epidemiological parameters with a system dynamics model of an outbreak.A multi-criteria decision making framework,an Analytical Hierarchy Process model,is then developed and integrated with the simulation model to help public health policy makers prioritize their response goals and evaluate mitigation strategies in a table-top exercise environment.     

考虑风险偏好的区间2型模糊多属性决策方法

针对区间2型梯形模糊集(IT2TrFS)的多属性决策问题,提出了一种考虑决策者风险偏好的多属性决策方法.首先根据决策者的风险偏好给决策者分类,提出了决策者风险偏好的度量方法,进而求得决策者风险偏好决策矩阵,并定义了新的可能度计算公式:最后通过计算符号距离得到方案的排序结果.实例分析表明该方法科学合理,决策者的不同风险偏好对决策结果存在影响,方法对比说明与已有算法相比该方法有更强的适用性:对风险偏好和风险保守的决策者同样适用.     

基于有限感知的决策理性模型

通过分析和比较完全感知和有限感知下决策的理性差别,将有限感知定义为一种偏好关系具有非一致性特点的有限理性;讨论了内在偏好、显示偏好、局部偏好和有限感知关系系统等概念,以及有限感知决策的一些理性条件和模型;并论证了诸如Proto序、偏序、弱序等一类偏好序下相应决策函数或规则的性质、特点及其存在性.研究结果诠释了具有有限感知偏好关系系统的决策主体的决策行为的内在机理和规律,可作为不确定性决策研究的一个理论基础.     

一类确定大众偏好结构的方法研究

大众群体偏好的集结是制定公共决策的基础。本文对这类问题进行了研究，提出了一种确定群体偏好结构的方法。该方法与传统的群体偏好结集方法不同，能有效而又可靠地确定群体的总体偏好结构，从而为制定公共决策提供详细可靠的信息。     

方案排序的加权投票制权力测度模型

在二元选择下，测算加权投票制的表决权的大小有两种广泛被接受的方法，即Shapley-Shubik指数法与Banzhaf指数法，但它们都不能解决多备选方案或多候选人时决策个体的权力问题。本文利用排序距离来度量不同群体偏好序差异，从而提出了无论被选方案或候选人是两个还是两个以上的加权投票制下对方案或候选人进行排序的决策个体权力计算方法，并进行了实例分析。     

多元判断偏好集结的混合群决策过程研究

针对评价过程中出现的不同偏好表达,提出了两阶段集结的群体决策方法:个人偏好转换和多专家集结。个人偏好转换把不同专家做出的模糊偏好关系、效用函数、部分选择、偏好排序、语言偏好关系等表达方式,转换为归一化的数值绝对偏好,并在专家相对偏好的权重表达中,采用模糊有序加权平均(ordered weighted averaging,OWA) 算子和语言有序加权平均(linguistic ordered weighted averaging,LOWA)算子;多专家集结则根据等差数的专家权重排列,并将权重做归一化处理,得出总分后即从可行方案中选出最优的方案,分数越高表明专家群体越为偏好,从而获得多元偏好表达的混合专家群体的民主选择结果。将该两步集结的方法用于某公司的人才综合评估中。与以往传统的选择方法相比,突出了决策者偏好表达的自由、民主的特征。     

基于模糊概率的股价波动分析模型

以理智的证券投资者的投资理念和实际经验为背景,利用模糊集理论和模糊概率的方法来模拟他们的股价分析过程和研究他们的投资策略.在股价波动的预测集上构造了一个模糊概率空间;然后,根据投资者的不同的投资偏好,利用模糊概率对股价波动的预测集进行了详尽的讨论和分析;由此获得了一些有关投资决策的关键技术指标和控制风险的策略.     

基于利他偏好的鲜活农产品供应链决策研究

本文考虑供应链成员的利他偏好以及鲜活农产品的新鲜度和运输损耗特性,建立了鲜活农产品供应链决策模型.分别研究了供应商具有利他偏好、销售商具有利他偏好以及双方同时具有利他偏好时的供应链决策,得到了采购量和批发价格的最优解析解,进而分析了利他偏好对供应链决策以及供应链效率的影响.研究结果表明,利他偏好行为能够显著影响供应链的最优决策,且当双方均具有利他偏好且利他偏好在一定范围内时,供应链成员的利他偏好能够提高鲜活农产品供应链的效率.较高的供应商利他偏好能够提高供应链的效率,而较高的销售商利他偏好却会降低供应链的效率.另外,研究结果也表明,新鲜度因子和运输有效因子对最优决策和供应链利润也有明显影响.最后以数值分析说明研究结果的正确性.     

属性值为区间数的决策对象预期理论模型研究

针对属性值为区间数的多属性决策中不同区间数相互比较具有相同可能度的问题进行研究。根据决策者不同的风险偏好将其分为3类,对不同风险偏好类型的决策者提出相应的预期理论模型,确定区间数之间的优势关系。在此基础之上,提出决策对象优势关系及优势度矩阵,并根据优势度数值对决策对象进行排序择优。最后,通过实例验证新排序算法的科学性与有效性。     

一种基于专家模糊偏好集结的群决策方法

本文分析了群决策的特性，提出一个以决策群体的模糊偏好集结为基础的求解群决策问题的方法，建立了方法的数学模型，并通过例子对方法的使用做了说明。