Demographic issues in 1975 and 2000

This article explores the demographic subjects which were topical 25 years ago and compares them with those of current interest, as reflected not only by the articles published in the early, and most recent issues of Population Trends, but also by papers of the period in other demographic journals.     

Reviewing the mid-year population estimates in Northern Ireland

This article describes the thorough review of the mid-year population estimates for Northern Ireland. No major problems have been identified with the current estimates but a number of enhancements have been put in place. The new figures are consistent with a number of administrative data sources. The overall effect has been to revise the estimated Northern Ireland population by about 6,000 people, or between 0.3 and 0.4 per cent, for each year between 1991 and 1997. The revised estimates for Northern Ireland have been incorporated into the population figures for the United Kingdom included in the Table section of this issue of Population Trends.     

Which authorities are alike?

This article describes the first results from the recent revision to The ONS classification of local and health authorities of Great Britain to allow for boundary changes. For each local and health authority of Great Britain as at April 1999 it presents 'most similar' authorities as measured by a selection of 37 socioeconomic and demographic variables from the 1991 Census. These results will assist local and health authorities in identifying other appropriate authorities for comparative studies. A second article, to be published in Population Trends 99, will present the results of the analysis to identify groups of authorities in a hierarchy of new Clusters, Groups and Families for the revised classification.     

Demographic data for Europe--a review of sources

Population Trends had provided an overview of European and world demographic issues since its inception in 1975. This article covers the abundant sources of demographic data on all European countries with information on their availability in printed and electronic formats.     

Families, groups and clusters of local and health authorities: revised for authorities in 1999

This is the second of two articles describing the revision of The ONS classification of local and health authorities of Great Britain to take account of area changes in the 1990's. It presents local authorities in Great Britain as at April 1999 in terms of Families, Groups and Clusters, based on 37 socio-economic and demographic variables from the 1991 Census. Health authorities are presented in terms of Families and Groups only, based on the same variables. The previous article (in Population Trends 98) presented, for each local and health authority, up to four other authorities to which it is 'most similar'.     

25 years of Population Trends

This article monitors some of the more significant demographic changes over the last twenty-five years, depicted in various issues of Population Trends. It is, of necessity, selective in coverage in terms of quotes, figures and topics. Other articles in this issue go into more depth on specific topics, such as families, ethnic minority groups, marriage and divorce, health inequalities and fertility and family planning. Consequently, there is some overlap and the articles could usefully be cross-referenced. Some coverage is also given to the development of sources, international events and selected partnerships outside the Office. Relevant legislation enacted over the period is also mentioned.     

The 2007 Census Test: a major step towards the 2011 Census

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is planning a major Census field test in 2007. It will form part of the planning and testing programme leading to up the next Census of Population for England and Wales in 2011, which will also include a Rehearsal in 2009. The 2007 Test will be a large-scale test in five local authority (LA) areas selected to reflect a range of field conditions, covering some 100,000 households in total. Within England the Test will cover parts of Bath and North East Somerset, Camden, Liverpool and Stoke-on-Trent. In Wales the Test will take place in Carmarthenshire. The selected LAs have been chosen to provide a varied cross-section of the population and types of housing that would be covered in a full census. This article sets out the main aims for the Test and describes the design and location of the sampled areas and the basis for their selection. It goes on to detail the ways (previously reported in Population Trend 1251) in which the ONS Census team and the LAs involved are working in partnership in planning the census enumeration with the long-term view of improving overall census coverage and user confidence in the results. The article notes that decisions on the topics to be covered in the 2007 Test have only recently been decided, and concludes with an overview of the qustions to be included in the 2007 Test questionnaire.     

Population review of 2004 and 2005: England and Wales

This article outlines the main features of the population of England and Wales in 2005. Where 2005 figures have not yet been published, data for 2004 are given.     

Estimates of the population by ethnic group for areas within England

This article describes, and provides some initial analysis of, the experimental population estimates by ethnic group for areas within England published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in January 2006. The article considers growth and the population structure of each of the ethnic groups identified in the 2001 Census; subnational patterns of change; population turnover; and measures of diversity and segregation, and also provides a comparison of the estimates and corresponding sample-based estimates from the Labour Force Survey.     

The new subnational population projections model: methodology and projection scenarios

This article describes the most recent process of projecting population at the subnational level in England. It briefly explains the reasons why projecting population at the subnational level is important, describes the model and how it was used to produce the latest set of long-term subnational population projections in England published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in 1998. The article then discusses how the model may be applied to answer various 'what-if' questions about future population.     

THE POPULATION DYNAMICS WITH N-INTERSECTIONS

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Population estimates; backseries methodology for 1992-2000

In each decade, population estimates are rebased using data from the most recent census. However, this would lead to a step change in the population estimates series. To avoid this discontinuity the backseries for 1992 to 2000, was revised to bring it into line with the 2001 Census. This article discusses the methodology used to produce the final revised backseries for 1992 to 2000 published by ONS in October 2004. The final estimates were produced after a long period of research into the best methodology to use. Traditionally, the backseries have been revised using an interim simple period method, followed by a final simple cohort method. The approach taken following the 2001 Census was much more comprehensive. This article outlines this approach, summarises the range of methods available and describes in detail the final method selected.     

The 2011 Census: a proposed design for England and Wales

This article sets out the proposed design for a 2011 Census in England and Wales, as part of the ONS's proposed future population statistics system. The design draws on experiences from the 2001 Census and changes in available technology, and takes account of the many comments received from respondents to a Discussion Paper published in October 2003 and of views expressed at a joint ONS/RSS Conference on 11-12 November 2003. The article highlights the statistical and operational strategic aims for the 2011 Census, the major changes proposed from the 2001 approach, and gives an indication of the benefits and risks. It is important to note that this design remains a proposal at present, the elements of which will be subject to further research building on comments received during consultation and a detailed testing programme over the coming years.     

Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

Interest has been growing steadily in understanding the impact of the inherent uncertainty in the national population projections. As a result, the Government Acturay's Department has recently produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom. These include 'standard' variants based on alternative high and low assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy and net migration and also a number of 'special case scenarios.' All of these variants have been produced at both UK and individual country level. This article describes the full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections and summaries some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries.     

Living arrangements among older people: an overview of trends in Europe and the USA

This article compares the trends in living arrangements of older people in several European countries and in the United States. Trends and cross-country variability in several factors that could account for these cross-national differences, including marital status, fertility, labour force participation and attitudes, are also examined. In most countries the proportion of older people living alone increased substantially between 1970 and 1990. However the increase in living alone stabilised or even declined between 1990 and 2000 in most of the countries analysed indicating a possible reversal in the trend. Increases in proportions of older women who are married and reductions in the proportions childless may partially explain this. Considerable variability in both trends and levels of older people's living arrangements was seen especially between north-western and southern European countries. These variations mirrored contrasts in attitudes towards residential care and parent-child coresidence between the countries.     

改进的三种群遗传算法

提出了一种新的三种群遗传算法.在一个子种群中,高相似个体之间具有相对高的交叉率,遗传操作得到的新个体替代上代种群的最劣的个体.在另一个子种群中,低相似个体之间具有相对高的交叉率,相对大的变异率,遗传操作得到的新个体替代父代中的最劣个体.两个子种群移民一定数量的个体到第三个子种群,第三个子种群进化后移民到前两个子种群,均衡算法的局部搜索能力和全局探索能力.将算法与确定性排挤遗传算法与3个子种群的多种群遗传算法进行比较,结果表明新算法的性能更优.     

Mortality of the 'Golden Generation': what can the ONS Longitudinal study tell us?

It is well documented that the generations born around 1930 are consistently exhibiting higher rates of mortality improvement than the generations either side of them. There is currently no evidence that these differentials are declining. In current ONS National Population Projections, it is assumed that these cohorts will continue to experience higher rates of improvement. However, it is not yet precisely clear why this is so. This article details preliminary research carried out using the ONS Longitudinal Study to try to understand better why the members of the generation born around 1930 have been enjoying higher rates of mortality improvement throughout their adult life.     

Rebasing the annual mid-year population estimates for England and Wales

The ONS produces mid-year population estimates annually, which are based on updating from the most recent census. Therefore, whenever results become available from a census, a new base is created for the population estimates. This has implications for historic series, which need to be revised to be consistent with both the past and the most recent census. This article describes the methodology that will be used for this rebasing of the mid-year population estimates following the availability of results from the 2001 Census. Census results also provide a unique opportunity to assess the accuracy of the population estimates that are based on the previous census and this article also describes the approach that will be taken to the assessment of accuracy.