“美国治下”的北极治理

正自去年4月美国担任北极理事会轮值主席国以来,至今已有一年半时间。北极理事会成立于1996年,成员包括俄罗斯、美国、加拿大、瑞典、挪威、芬兰、丹麦和冰岛。在担任轮值主席国期间,奥巴马政府对美国的北极政策进行了一些调整。随着奥巴马总统任期即将结束,北极治理以及美国的北极政策走向何方,将对中美北极事务合作以及中国参与北极事务产生一定影响。     

美国又在散布北极“中国威胁论”

<正>第11届北极理事会部长级会议5月初在芬兰罗瓦涅米举行。美国国务卿蓬佩奥在发言中将中国在北极地区的活动视为"威胁",污蔑中国有可能把北极变成"另一个南海",宣称美国将加强在北极地区的存在,以抵制中俄的"攻击性行为"。对于此番言论,中国外交部发言人驳斥为"颠倒黑白、别有用心"。北极理事会成立于1996年,是重要的政府间合作平台,重点关注北极地区环境与发展,推动国际社会研究北极的自然变化,提高地区生活工作条件,促进可持续发展。它有三类成员,一是北极地区国家,包括美国、加拿大、丹麦、俄罗斯、挪威、瑞典、芬兰、冰岛;二是作为     

北极导航条件分析及对策

随着科技进步和全球气候变暖,北极地区的船舶通航将成为现实。影响船舶通航的重要因素是导航,本文总结分析了北极地区特殊的导航条件,并提出了一些导航建议措施,为船舶北极导航提供了参考依据。     

韩国北极政策“小步快走”

<正>2013年5月,中国、日本、韩国同时获得北极理事会正式观察员国的身份。虽然观察员国对北极事务并不享有决策权,但可以通过参与北极理事会下的各专项会议小组,密切掌握北极最新动态,同时也可以向北极理事会提出相关建议。2013~2018年间,三国陆续出台《北极政策》文件或白皮书。日韩参与北极事务的战略目标、利益诉求与中国相似,要争取的合作目标国(如俄罗斯)也具有同一性,因此日韩既是中国在北极事务中的重要合作伙伴,也是中国的竞争     

日益激烈的北极理事会之争

今年5月,北极理事会将在其召开的副部长级会议上讨论增加永久观察员的问题,这使北极理事会的扩容问题再次引人关注。近年来,北极理事会正逐步从论坛性质的国际组织发展为北极地区最有影响力的区域治理机制。在去年7月召开的北极理事会第七届理事会议上,各成员国首次达成了具有法律效力的协议,但原定讨论解决的增设观察员问题则被再次推迟。     

俄罗斯北极地区战略空间规划的内涵、地缘政治因素及启示

北极地区的开发与治理是俄罗斯北极政策的重要内容,为了维护北极的国家战略安全,实现社会经济发展,俄罗斯制定了北极地区的战略空间规划,旨在从军事安全、能源资源与北方航运、社会经济、应对气候变化、国际合作等不同维度开展区域空间规划与实践.鉴于北极的地缘格局,俄属北极地区的战略空间规划不得不考虑地缘政治因素的影响.从空间规划视角审视俄罗斯北极地区的战略规划,可在为加强北极治理及国际合作提供参考借鉴.     

奥巴马的北极之行传达了什么信号

<正>今年4月,美国正式从加拿大手里接棒,担任为期两年的"北极理事会主席国"。8月31日~9月2日,美国总统奥巴马出席"北极事务全球领导力大会"并视察阿拉斯加州北极地区,成为第一位访问该地区的美国总统。动因在美国的官方媒体中,奥巴马此行的主要目的是视察气候变化带来的影响,并提出对策。笔者认为,除此之外,还有以下几个目的:     

北极航线经济圈经济联系网络空间格局研究

全球气候变暖,北极海冰加速融化促使北极航线开通成为了可能,北极的航运价值愈发凸显,并对沿线国家经济联系产生重要影响.利用引力模型和可达性理论分析北极航线经济圈经济联系网络的空间结构及网络特征,结果发现：北极航线开通促使部分节点中心度上升,北极航线经济圈经济联系网络存在显著的核心—边缘结构;北极航线开通促进了北极航线经济圈经济联系网络密度的提升,国家间联系逐渐密切;同时北极航线开通后绝大部分西欧国家可达性水平较高,而东北亚国家的可达性水平较低,但东北亚国家可达性水平提升幅度较大.     

全球多区域CGE模型的构建及其3E扩展

全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium,CGE)是最重要的全球气候政策评估工具之一。该文给出了自主开发的全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(global applied general equilibrium model,GAGE)的理论框架,描述了区域内框架的地区账户收入分配方案和生产模块的嵌套结构以及区域间框架的国际贸易结构和2个虚拟国际机构的构建,即建立国际运输部门和国际银行用于描述国际贸易的运输服务供需以及投资的区域间流动。在标准GAGE模型的基础上进行了能源-环境-经济扩展,以描述能源与资本之间以及各类能源之间的替代关系。碳减排情景研究结果验证了GAGE模型理论框架的合理性,展示了能源替代对于减排潜力的显著影响。     

拜登政府重振北极之翼

<正>在全球气候变化的影响下，北极地区的能源资源开发、航道利用、战略部署等愈益引发域内外国家的关注。兼具北极大国与全球霸权国家的美国，越来越将北极地区视为重要的战略疆域。拜登政府上台以来，加大了在北极地区的战略力量投入。美国通过加强在北极地区的外交能力、发布新版《北极地区国家战略》、构建北极同盟体系等措施，力图重振美国在北极事务中的国际领导力，     

北极航线通航环境的盲数模型评估

为了研究北极航线通航问题,对北极航线的航行技术环境、人文环境和自然环境进行了深入分析,建立了北极航线通航环境评估指标体系,并在此基础上,利用盲数模型对北极航线通航环境进行了安全风险评估,确定了北极航线通航环境安全等级.研究结果表明,盲数理论用于航线通航环境评价,具有一定的理论可行性和推广应用价值     

Impact of technology advances on China’s CO2 emission reduction

Global warming tends to be the major characteristics of the dramatic global climate change. To deal with these changes, the impact of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission on Chinese future economic and social development has to be assessed. In this paper, a Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), which is well known and accepted widely, has been used for Chinese economic assessment of climate change after introduction, assimilation and verification. Based on a sensitivity analysis of technical parameters in the RICE model and constrained targets proposed for energy saving and emissions reduction technological advance programs of China from 2000 to 2050, the economic impact of the programs is examined. The results indicate that when technology advances, Chinese CO₂ emission, climate loss, and the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature will all decrease. It is assumed that in 2010, the CO₂ emission is 20% lower than in 2005, CO₂emission in 2050 would only double the level in 2000, the accumulative CO₂ emission would be decreased by 12.4 GtC, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature in 2050 would reduce by 35 GtC and 0.04°C respectively from 2000 to 2050. The accumulative climate loss from 2000 to 2050 will drop down by 4.6 billion dollar, which only accounts for 6% of the global total benefits. However, the economic benefit the developed countries will obtain is 10 times that for China under such a technological advance scenario. The decrease of the CO₂ emission control rate is 1% in cooperation policy while 4.6% in non-cooperation policy, which would relieve China’s burden in the control of CO₂ total emission and thereby benefit China in participation of the international cooperation for CO₂ emission reduction.     

考虑产品低碳责任的服装企业减排决策

针对服装企业同业竞争及政府碳税政策的双重压力,考虑低碳经济背景下的产品低碳责任,建立品牌竞争下服装企业减排决策模型,求解不同碳税水平下各品牌的最优定价、利润及减排技术水平,并分析各碳税水平下企业的减排决策对环境效益的影响。结果表明,服装企业通过积极改善减排技术,可以在降低总排放量的同时实现自身收益最大化,达到经济效益和环境效益的双赢,从而很好地履行产品低碳责任。     

Influence of the carbon cycle on the attribution of responsibility for climate change

The carbon cycle is one of the fundamental climate change issues.Its long-term evolution largely affects the amplitude and trend of human-induced climate change,as well as the formulation and implementation of emission reduction policy and technology for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2concentration.Two earth system models incorporating the global carbon cycle,the Community Earth System Model and the Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model,were used to investigate the effect of the carbon cycle on the attribution of the historical responsibility for climate change.The simulations show that when compared with the criterion based on cumulative emissions,the developed(developing)countries’responsibility is reduced(increased)by 6%–10%using atmospheric CO2concentration as the criterion.This discrepancy is attributed to the fact that the developed world contributed approximately61%–68%(61%–64%)to the change in global oceanic(terrestrial)carbon sequestration for the period from 1850 to2005,whereas the developing world contributed approximately 32%–49%(36%–39%).Under a developed world emissions scenario,the relatively larger uptake of global carbon sinks reduced the developed countries’responsibility for carbon emissions but increased their responsibility for global ocean acidification(68%).In addition,the large emissions from the developed world reduced the efficiency of the global carbon sinks,which may affect the long-term carbon sequestration and exacerbate global warming in the future.Therefore,it is necessary to further consider the interaction between carbon emissions and the carbon cycle when formulating emission reduction policy.     

Increased Arctic cloud longwave emissivity associated with pollution from mid-latitudes

There is consensus among climate models that Arctic climate is particularly sensitive to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and that, over the next century, Arctic surface temperatures are projected to rise at a rate about twice the global mean. The response of Arctic surface temperatures to greenhouse gas thermal emission is modified by Northern Hemisphere synoptic meteorology and local radiative processes. Aerosols may play a contributing factor through changes to cloud radiative properties. Here we evaluate a previously suggested contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to cloud emission and surface temperatures in the Arctic. Using four years of ground-based aerosol and radiation measurements obtained near Barrow, Alaska, we show that, where thin water clouds and pollution are coincident, there is an increase in cloud longwave emissivity resulting from elevated haze levels. This results in an estimated surface warming under cloudy skies of between 3.3 and 5.2 W m(-2) or 1 and 1.6 degrees C. Arctic climate is closely tied to cloud longwave emission, but feedback mechanisms in the system are complex and the actual climate response to the described sensitivity remains to be evaluated.     

北冰洋海平面变化的观测和研究现状

回顾北冰洋海平面观测和研究现状,总结了北冰洋海平面变化特征和变化机制。北冰洋海平面季节变化受海冰生消、蒸发降水和陆地径流季节变化的影响,由比容变化主导;年际到年代际海平面变化受北极涛动影响显著,可用风场异常导致的淡水分布来解释。盐比容变化是深水洋盆海平面变化的主导因素,由之引起的质量变化控制陆架海域和北冰洋平均的海平面变化。近期波弗特环流区域海平面上升极快,与波弗特高压持续增强及淡水积聚有关。气候变暖会导致北冰洋海平面持续上升。海冰快速减退和格陵兰岛冰川融化对北冰洋海平面变化的影响有待深入研究。数据的短缺和观测的不确定性目前仍然制约北冰洋海平面变化的研究工作,高分辨率数值模拟有望成为未来研究的重要工具。     

Activation of old carbon by erosion of coastal and subsea permafrost in Arctic Siberia

The future trajectory of greenhouse gas concentrations depends on interactions between climate and the biogeosphere. Thawing of Arctic permafrost could release significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere in this century. Ancient Ice Complex deposits outcropping along the ~7,000-kilometre-long coastline of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), and associated shallow subsea permafrost, are two large pools of permafrost carbon, yet their vulnerabilities towards thawing and decomposition are largely unknown. Recent Arctic warming is stronger than has been predicted by several degrees, and is particularly pronounced over the coastal ESAS region. There is thus a pressing need to improve our understanding of the links between permafrost carbon and climate in this relatively inaccessible region. Here we show that extensive release of carbon from these Ice Complex deposits dominates (57?±?2 per cent) the sedimentary carbon budget of the ESAS, the world’s largest continental shelf, overwhelming the marine and topsoil terrestrial components. Inverse modelling of the dual-carbon isotope composition of organic carbon accumulating in ESAS surface sediments, using Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties, suggests that 44?±?10 teragrams of old carbon is activated annually from Ice Complex permafrost, an order of magnitude more than has been suggested by previous studies. We estimate that about two-thirds (66?±?16 per cent) of this old carbon escapes to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, with the remainder being re-buried in shelf sediments. Thermal collapse and erosion of these carbon-rich Pleistocene coastline and seafloor deposits may accelerate with Arctic amplification of climate warming.     

黑碳气溶胶研究新进展

黑碳气溶胶是气溶胶的重要组成部分,在大气物理、大气化学、大气光学、大气光化学等过程中具有重要作用。近年来研究表明,黑碳气溶胶对于全球变暖、区域气候变化有重要贡献,黑碳气溶胶可能是影响全球变暖的第二大重要因子,其作用仅次于CO2。因此,应控制黑碳的排放。考虑到黑碳气溶胶在全球变暖、区域气候、环境与健康等方面的作用,研究和评价黑碳气溶胶的作用已十分必要和迫切。     

中国低碳经济发展现状及展望

 兴起于21世纪初期的低碳经济,以能源结构、经济结构低碳化发展为核心。概要总结了党的十八大以来中国低碳经济的发展成就,指出能源绿色低碳转型步伐加快,产业结构不断绿色转型升级,节能减排降碳成效显著,植树造林和循环经济发展降低了碳强度,绿色低碳生活方式成为社会时尚,积极参与气候变化全球治理,开展应对气候变化南南合作,为发展中国家提供了力所能及的支持和帮助。中国碳达峰碳中和目标的提出,激发了低碳经济的发展活力,在分析中国发展面临的机遇和挑战基础上,提出要坚持先立后破、通盘谋划,在降碳的同时确保能源安全,把经济结构优化作为重要任务,将中国特色社会主义现代化强国作为努力方向,实现永续发展。