NONMRAMETRIC AND SEMIPARAMETRICREGRESSION MODELS WITH LOCALLYGENERALIZED GAUSSIAN ERROR

1.IntroductionLetpbeanaturalnumberandAbeacompactsetinW,K(")~g(xj")) e(")ti~1)2,...5acwherexln),x;n),''t.in)EAaredesignpoints,gisanunknownfunction,ej")arerandomerrors.Georgiovil]definedg.(x)~fWu.(x)K(")asanestimateofg,whereWei(x)=i=1Wei(x,xl"),xln),''5x;…     

ADMISSIBILITY OF SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION OF SEVERAL LOSSES

In this paper,admissibility and inadmissibility results of simultaneous estimation oflosses of multivariate normal mean estimators are given.Admissible estimators for losses ofusual estimators of multivariate gamma parameters,multivariate binomial parameters andPoisson parameters are obtained respectively.     

New Moment Estimators of the Effective Spread Based on Daily High and Low Prices

This paper proposes five new simple moment estimators of the effective spread based on the covariance estimator of Roll(1984) and the High-Low estimator recently developed by Corwin and Schultz(2012). And then the authors theoretically investigate the statistical properties of six simple High-Low spread estimators including Corwin and Schultz's estimator. The biases and mean squared errors(MSE) of these six estimators have been derived and compared with each other asymptotically,which, together with the subsequent simulation study, reveal explicitly the superior performance of newly developed High-Low estimators over Corwin and Schultz's estimator in both ideal and nonideal conditions. Moreover, this paper also develops GMM estimators constructed by three or more moment conditions and compares with the six simple High-Low estimators. Finally, several example applications on the U.S. and Chinese financial markets are conducted to demonstrate the superior performance of the new High-Low estimators. The results provide alternative choices for identifying the liquidity proxies that well capture different structure of markets.     

威布尔部件的经验贝叶斯评估

在逐步增加Ⅱ型截尾寿命试验下, 讨论了威布尔部件可靠性指标的估计及性质. 基于Linex损失函数, 给出了威布尔部件寿命分布参数、可靠度函数及失效率函数的一致最小方差无偏估计、贝叶斯估计及经验贝叶斯估计, 并证明了经验贝叶斯估计的渐进最优性. 最后运用Monte-Carlo方法对各种估计 的均方误差进行了模拟比较. 结果表明, 经验贝叶斯估计精度高.     

A note on the properties of Stein-rule and inequality restricted estimators when the regression model is over-fitted

<正> This paper considers the effect of an erroneous inclusion of regressors on the risk propertiesof the Stein-rule,positive-part Stein-rule and inequality restricted and pre-test estimators in a linearregression model.The two Stein-rule estimators are considered when extraneous information is availablein the form of a set of multiple equality constraints on the coefficients,while the inequality estimatorsare considered under the case of a single inequality constraint.It is shown that the inclusion ofwrong regressors has only minimal effect on the properties of the Stein-rule and positive-part Stein-ruleestimators,and no effect at all on the inequality restricted and pre-test estimators when there is asingle inequality constraint.     

水下多目标定向高分辨阵列处理的计算机仿真方法研究

应用计算机仿真方法研究了几种的水下多目标定向高分辨阵列处理方法的统计性能，为水下多目标定向研究提供了重要的研究方法和手段。子空间类方法、ESPRIT和WSF是几种典型的高分辨方位估计方法，它们具有良好的统计性能。我们在以往研究的基础上，针对两个目标和三个目标情况，通过仿真研究了这些高分辨方法的分辨能力和估计精度，得到了各方法的分辨概率及均方误差随信噪比变化规律，这些仿真结果为水下多目标定向提供了依据。     

THE ASYMPTOTICS OF THE INTEGRATEDSQUARE ERROR FOR THE KERNEL HAZARD RATEESTIMATORS WITH LEFT TRENCATED ANDRIGHT CENSORED DATA

1.IntroductionandMainResultsInmanysituations,asforexampleinmedicalfollow-uporinengineeringlifetestingstudies,onemaynotbeabletoobservethevariableofinterest.Lefttruncationandrightcensoringaretwocommonformsinwhichincompletedatamadappear.Lefttruncationmayoccurifthetimeoriginofthelifetimeprecedesthetimeoriginofthestudy.Oncehavingeageredintothestudytheindividualsaresubjecttotheusualrightcensoring.Lefttruncationandrightcensoringmadhappensimultaneously.Censoringhasbeenreceivingconsiderableattentionf…     

具有随机偏差的最优多段卡尔曼估值器

提出了具有随机偏差的最优多段卡尔曼估值器。针对状态模型与观测模型同时具有偏差且偏差模型噪声与状态模型噪声相关的情况 ,给出了具有随机偏差的状态方程的增广状态 ,并通过U V变换对卡尔曼估值器的协方差矩阵解耦得到了最优多段卡尔曼估值器。结果表明 ,多段卡尔曼估值器不仅是最优的 ,而且降低了计算的复杂度     

Two-step estimators in partial linear models with missing response variables and error-prone covariates

A partial linear model with missing response variables and error-prone covariates is considered. The imputation approach is developed to estimate the regression coefficients and the nonparametric function. The proposed parametric estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal, and the estimators for the nonparametric part are proved to converge at an optimal rate. To construct confidence regions for the regression coefficients and the nonparametric function, respectively, the authors also propose the empirical-likelihood-based statistics and investigate the limit distributions of the empirical likelihood ratios. The simulation study is conducted to compare the finite sample behavior for the proposed estimators. An application to an AIDS dataset is illustrated.     

数论网格法在极大似然估计中的应用

复杂似然函数的多峰性使得极大似然估计的求解存在很大困难。针对这一问题,提出了求解极大似然估计问题的数论网格法。讨论了数论网格法的特点,理论分析了其算法精度,给出了基于数论网格的序贯优化算法的计算步骤,研究了初始搜索区域和算法初始参数的确定方法。最后,以两参数威布尔分布参数极大似然估计为例,给出了极大似然估计的计算过程,比较了序贯优化算法和对分法的估计结果,说明了序贯优化算法的有效性和计算效率。     

动态空间自回归固定效应面板模型的估计与应用

文章首次探寻了在空间系统稳定以及n和T均为很大的情况下,DSAC固定效应面板模型的拟极大似然估计量的渐近性质.研究发现:运用转换法估计时,在一般情况下得到拟极大似然估计量存在O(1/T)阶的偏差,当(n-1)/T→0时,转换法得到的估计量以√(n-1)/T的速度一致地收敛于真值,当(n-1)/T→∞时,估计量以T的速度收敛至一个退化分布;用直接法估计时,在一般情况下得到的估计量会产生max(O(1/T),O(1/n))阶的偏差,当n/T→0和n/T→∞时,估计量分别以n和T的速度收敛至不同的退化分布;偏差修正估计量比拟极大似然估计量具有更好的有限样本性质:当n/T³→0时,转换法得到的偏差修正估计量以√(n-1)/T1的速度一致地收敛于真值,当n/T³和n³/T同时趋于0时,直接法得到的偏差修正估计量以√nT的速度一致地收敛于真值;直接法可以一致地估计个体效应和时间效应而转换法不能;当扰动项存在空间相关结构时DSAC固定效应面板模型的有限样本性质优于DSAR面板模型;最后用一个实证研究的例子表明了DSAC模型的应用价值.     

嵌套Logistic模型的矩估计

讨论多元极值分布嵌套 Logistic模型 ,给出了分布参数的矩估计及其渐近协方差阵元素的显式表示和数值结果 .当边缘参数相等时 ,用合并样本估计公共参数 ,可以提高估计量的精度 .     

Performance of Preliminary Test Estimators for Error Variance Based on W,LR and LM Tests

The performances of preliminary test estimators for error variance based on W, LR and LM tests in a normal linear model are considered in this paper. Firstly, the risks of the proposed estimators are derived and compared by theoretical analysis and numerical calculation, respectively. The results show that their risks are related to the equality constraint error and the critical value of test. Moreover, the minimum value of the risks can be achieved when the critical value of test equals to one. Secondly, the superiority conditions of the proposed estimators are discussed. Finally, the results are illustrated by a simulation example.

     

两参数Pareto分布逐步首失效样本的Bayes估计

基于新的失效截尾模式——逐步增加首失效截尾, 研究两参数Pareto分布可靠性指标的Bayes估计问题. 在对称和非对称损失下, 获得了可靠性指标的Bayes估计. 对超参数未知情形, 利用一种新方法给出超参数估计. 为了研究估计结果的精确性, 利用Monte-Carlo方法给出一个数值模拟例子.     

ROBUST NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION BASED ON L_1-NORM AND B-SPLINES

ＲＯＢＵＳＴＮＯＮＰＡＲＡＭＥＴＲＩＣＲＥＧＲＥＳＳＩＯＮＢＡＳＥＤＯＮＬ＿１－ＮＯＲＭＡＮＤＢ－ＳＰＬＩＮＥＳＳＨＩＰｅｉｄｅ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＰｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｙａｎｄＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓ，ＰｅｋｉｎｇＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎ...     

Estimation of a subset of regression coefficients of interest in a model with non-spherical disturbances

This paper considers the estimation of a subset of regression coefficients in a linear regression model with non-spherical disturbances, when other regression coefficients are of no interest. A family of estimators is considered and its asymptotic distribution is derived. This proposed family of improved estimators is compared with the usual unrestricted FGLS estimator, and dominance conditions are obtained with respect to risk under quadratic loss as well as the Pitman nearness criterion. The results of a numerical simulation are presented to illustrate the risk performance of various estimators.     

Unbiased condition of the dispersion effects estimator in unreplicated two-level factorial experiments

This article presents a general form of the estimator for identifying dispersion effects from unreplicated two-level factorial experiments, and shows that the widely used estimators such as the BH, MH, and AMH estimators are all special cases of the proposed one, designated as the G estimator. The unbiased condition of the G estimator is proved, and a lower bound of variance of the G estimator is provided. A simulation based on a realistic design illustrates the variation of the variance and MSE (mean square error) of the G estimator on different coefficients. This estimator may be more flexible and has better performance than other methods such as the BH and MH estimators by appropriately selecting the coefficients.     

STRONG UNIFORM CONSISTENCY RATES FOR CONDITIONAL FUNCTION ESTIMA TORS WITH ■-MIXING SAMPLE

Strong uniform consistency rates are given for kernel type estimatorsof the conditional function with (?)-mixing sample.Especially,for nonparametricestimators of kernel density,the regression function when Y is bounded,conditionaldf's,L-smoothing and M-smoothing,we obtain the same rate O((n/log n)~(-1/3))as in the i.i.d.sample established by H(?)rdle,Janssen and Serfling.     

基于门限预平均已调整多次幂变差的可积波动估计及其应用

本文在市场微观结构噪声和跳跃下新提出一类可积波动估计.这些估计联合采用了预平均已调整多次幂变差估计和门限技术,分别消除噪声和跳跃的影响.我们同时给出这一估计的渐近性质,包括一致性和中心极限定理.蒙特卡罗模拟结果表明这一估计对噪声和Lévy跳跃稳健,并且相比预平均已调整多次幂变差(PMMV)估计(Vetter, 2008)具有更好的表现.在实证应用中,基于中国股市逐笔交易的高频数据估计出2015年股灾前后上证50成分股的连续波动,跳跃波动以及噪声波动,并且研究了它们之间相互关系.实证发现:1)噪声波动对潜在收益波动具有正向预测作用,但该预测作用主要针对连续波动,对跳跃波动预测作用并不显著;2)噪声波动具有很强的相依性,连续波动对其具有显著正向预测作用,而跳跃波动对其不存在显著的预测能力.本文研究结果表明噪声包含了有助于潜在价格波动预测的信息,不完全是"噪声",其包含的信息有待深入挖掘.     

海杂波协方差矩阵估计及其对目标检测性能的影响

在海杂波中检测有用信号,杂波的协方差矩阵需要利用参考数据进行估计,不同的估计方法对信号的检测性能产生不同的影响。首先,给出了几种杂波协方差矩阵估计,即样本协方差矩阵、正则化样本协方差矩阵、最大似然估计和渐进最大似然估计;然后,分析了海杂波数据的非高斯性和非平稳性;最后,利用正则化匹配滤波器作为信号检测器,分析了不同协方差估计对检测性能的影响。分析结果表明,由于实测数据的非平稳性,检测性能均比仿真数据获得的检测性能要差。而将杂波协方差矩阵的最大似然估计应用于检测器,能够获得较好的检测性能。