Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis

To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley’s (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd’s (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Impact of climate change on wetland ecosystems: A critical review of experimental wetlands

Climate change is identified as a major threat to wetlands. Altered hydrology and rising temperature can change the biogeochemistry and function of a wetland to the degree that some important services might be turned into disservices. This means that they will, for example, no longer provide a water purification service and adversely they may start to decompose and release nutrients to the surface water. Moreover, a higher rate of decomposition than primary production (photosynthesis) may lead to a shift of their function from being a sink of carbon to a source. This review paper assesses the potential response of natural wetlands (peatlands) and constructed wetlands to climate change in terms of gas emission and nutrients release. In addition, the impact of key climatic factors such as temperature and water availability on wetlands has been reviewed. The authors identified the methodological gaps and weaknesses in the literature and then introduced a new framework for conducting a comprehensive mesocosm experiment to address the existing gaps in literature to support future climate change research on wetland ecosystems. In the future, higher temperatures resulting in drought might shift the role of both constructed wetland and peatland from a sink to a source of carbon. However, higher temperatures accompanied by more precipitation can promote photosynthesis to a degree that might exceed the respiration and maintain the carbon sink role of the wetland. There might be a critical water level at which the wetland can preserve most of its services. In order to find that level, a study of the key factors of climate change and their interactions using an appropriate experimental method is necessary. Some contradictory results of past experiments can be associated with different methodologies, designs, time periods, climates, and natural variability. Hence a long-term simulation of climate change for wetlands according to the proposed framework is recommended. This framework provides relatively more accurate and realistic simulations, valid comparative results, comprehensive understanding and supports coordination between researchers. This can help to find a sustainable management strategy for wetlands to be resilient to climate change.     

Impact of climate change on wetland ecosystems: A critical review of experimental wetlands

Climate change is identified as a major threat to wetlands. Altered hydrology and rising temperature can change the biogeochemistry and function of a wetland to the degree that some important services might be turned into disservices. This means that they will, for example, no longer provide a water purification service and adversely they may start to decompose and release nutrients to the surface water. Moreover, a higher rate of decomposition than primary production (photosynthesis) may lead to a shift of their function from being a sink of carbon to a source. This review paper assesses the potential response of natural wetlands (peatlands) and constructed wetlands to climate change in terms of gas emission and nutrients release. In addition, the impact of key climatic factors such as temperature and water availability on wetlands has been reviewed. The authors identified the methodological gaps and weaknesses in the literature and then introduced a new framework for conducting a comprehensive mesocosm experiment to address the existing gaps in literature to support future climate change research on wetland ecosystems. In the future, higher temperatures resulting in drought might shift the role of both constructed wetland and peatland from a sink to a source of carbon. However, higher temperatures accompanied by more precipitation can promote photosynthesis to a degree that might exceed the respiration and maintain the carbon sink role of the wetland. There might be a critical water level at which the wetland can preserve most of its services. In order to find that level, a study of the key factors of climate change and their interactions using an appropriate experimental method is necessary. Some contradictory results of past experiments can be associated with different methodologies, designs, time periods, climates, and natural variability. Hence a long-term simulation of climate change for wetlands according to the proposed framework is recommended. This framework provides relatively more accurate and realistic simulations, valid comparative results, comprehensive understanding and supports coordination between researchers. This can help to find a sustainable management strategy for wetlands to be resilient to climate change.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

全球气候变化背景下的森林土壤酶研究进展

以CO2浓度增加和温度升高为主要特征的全球气候变化正在深刻地改变着陆地生态系统的结构、功能和过程，因而受到科学家们的普遍关注。而土壤酶作为土壤质量的重要生物学指标，不仅可以监控生态系统的变化，还可以提供给资源管理者和政策制定者作为战略和方法制定的科学依据。但目前针对全球气候变化对土壤酶影响的研究还相对薄弱。本文对国内外关于气候变化对土壤酶活性研究的作了概括，并指出了目前研究中存在的不足及展望。     

The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science

I bring out the limitations of four important views of what the target of useful climate model assessment is. Three of these views are drawn from philosophy. They include the views of Elisabeth Lloyd and Wendy Parker, and an application of Bayesian confirmation theory. The fourth view I criticise is based on the actual practice of climate model assessment. In bringing out the limitations of these four views, I argue that an approach to climate model assessment that neither demands too much of such assessment nor threatens to be unreliable will, in typical cases, have to aim at something other than the confirmation of claims about how the climate system actually is. This means, I suggest, that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC׳s) focus on establishing confidence in climate model explanations and predictions is misguided. So too, it means that standard epistemologies of science with pretensions to generality, e.g., Bayesian epistemologies, fail to illuminate the assessment of climate models. I go on to outline a view that neither demands too much nor threatens to be unreliable, a view according to which useful climate model assessment typically aims to show that certain climatic scenarios are real possibilities and, when the scenarios are determined to be real possibilities, partially to determine how remote they are.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

气候变暖和降水变化对地下生态过程的影响

地下生态学过程是指陆地生态系统地下部分结构、功能的动态变化过程,它与地上过程高度关联,是全面理解生态系统结构和功能,特别是对全球气候变化响应和适应机理的关键.气候变暖和降水变化是气候变化的两个重要方面,它们对地下生态学过程各个方面的影响复杂且重要,然而目前在这方面的综述文章并不多见.本文综述了气候变暖和降水变化对土壤碳收支、氮循环、土壤生物以及植物细根的周转等方面的研究进展,并在此基础上分析了相关研究领域的主要瓶颈,提出了一些亟待解决的科学问题,期望促进气候变化背景下地下生态学的发展.     

升高CO2浓度和温度对针叶林的影响以及在川西亚高山针叶林研究中的展望

以CO2浓度和温度升高为主要特征的全球气候变化受到了世界各国科学家们的普遍关注。目前已经有大量关于森林生态系统对全球变化响应的研究报道和综述性文章,涉及分子、生理生态、种群和群落生态以及区域和全球尺度等微观和宏观领域的研究内容,因而要想对森林生态系统对全球变化的响应研究进行全面的综述是相当困难的。因此,本文只简要评述了森林生态系统对升高CO2浓度和温度响应研究中的诸如CO2浓度和温度升高对森林生长和生产力的影响、森林生态系统物种组成和多样性对升高CO2浓度和温度的响应、植被变化与全球碳循环的互动以及气候变化与森林生态系统生物地球化学循环的关系等几个热点问题。川西亚高山针叶林区为我国的第二大林区,地处高山峡谷地带,是全球变化的敏感地带。相对简单的植物群落结构、较低的物种丰富度和多样性、巨大的冷冻土壤碳库、不同演替阶段和功能的植物群落组合以及分布于林线附近的邻接效应等为研究针叶林系统对升高CO2浓度和温度的响应提供了良好的天然实验室。针叶林生产力、植物群落物种组成和多样性以及土壤碳氮过程等对升高CO2浓度和温度的响应对于预测未来气候变化下针叶林系统的生态过程具有重要意义。     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.