第24太阳周太阳黑子数平滑月均值预报

首先分析和检验了提出的相似周方法对第23太阳周各月的黑子数平滑月均值作的预报．然后依据对第24太阳周上升相长度和黑子数平滑月均值的极大值的预报,在假设极大值预报误差为20％,上升相长度预报误差为±7个月的条件下,从已有的23个太阳周中选取了第2,4,8,11,17,20和23周为第24太阳周的相似周．并且用两组相似周,第一组包含上述7个太阳周,第二组只包含第11,17,20和23周,分别对第24周的各月的黑子数平滑月均值的时间变化作了预报．最后,综合考虑了第24周起点的预报和最新的太阳黑子观测数据,对预报出的时间变化曲线给以时间定标,作出了第24周自2007年10月到2018年4月共127个月的黑子数平滑月均值的预报．     

基于RBF人工神经网络的X级以上太阳耀斑预报研究

采用第23太阳活动周X级以上耀斑的数据,通过回归分析、Gauss拟合和RBF人工神经网络等方法对X级以上耀斑进行预报研究.结果表明,将黑子群的位置、卡灵顿经度、耀斑爆发时间与黑子群达到最大面积的时间关系、每7d黑子群的最大面积、太阳耀斑流量的积分值、CME速度和F10.7射电流量7个预报因子作为参量对RBF人工神经网络预报模型进行训练,训练后建立的RBF模型的输出结果和训练数据的相关系数高达98%,对耀斑强度的预报结果与观测结果的误差在0.5以内,预报模型符合耀斑短期预报的要求.     

太阳活动区参量与太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件的相关性统计分析

太阳黑子活动区与太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件的发生有紧密的关系.选取活动区特征参量包括太阳黑子群面积,磁分类,McIntosh分类,10 cm射电流量,统计和耀斑发生的产率关系;还统计了太阳活动区的位置,软X射线通量和质子事件的产率关系.对于磁分类,McIntosh分类的每一种分类类型计算了耀斑产率,对黑子群面积和10 cm射电流量和软X射线通量用函数拟合了它们和太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件的产率关系.对活动区位置采用了分段统计质子事件产率的方法.统计结果显示我们选取的活动区特征参量与太阳耀斑和质子事件有较强的相关性.统计结果可作为以后建立太阳耀斑,太阳质子事件预报模型中预报因子的选取的基础.     

太阳活动峰年和谷年期间黑子群与耀斑的统计分析

基于NOAA/SWPC公布的太阳活动数据,我们选取第24太阳活动峰年附近的12个连续月份(2011年7月至2012年6月)和第23太阳活动周谷年附近的12个连续月份(2005年7月至2006年6月),统计了这两段时间中太阳黑子群和耀斑的活动规律,并根据时间、黑子群分布纬度、寿命和磁场类型等对峰年和谷年进行了详细分析和比较,主要结论如下所述.(1)黑子群数随时间的变化在峰年和谷年均比较随机,峰年期间黑子数比谷年增多1.5倍左右.耀斑爆发与黑子群活动具有良好的相关性,但峰年期间存在某个月份耀斑数很少的现象,而谷年期间存在某个月份耀斑数集中增多的现象.(2)无论峰年还是谷年,δ类型黑子群的耀斑产率(耀斑总数与黑子群总数之比)最大,但β型黑子群产生的耀斑爆发最多.耀斑产率与磁场类型有密切关系,但与其所处太阳活动周中的阶段无关.(3)黑子群和耀斑的纬度分布的南北不对称性,以X级耀斑最为显著.峰年较谷年的耀斑数增加主要集中在C级和M级.(4)耀斑产率同黑子群寿命具有良好的相关性,但黑子群的数目同它们的寿命之间没有明显的规律.     

第23周太阳活动不对性分析

运用了二个太阳活动指数,即太阳黑子群数和黑子面积来分析第23周太阳活动的不对称性,文中引进了一个新概念“累计的不对称性”来描述太阳活动的不对称性分布,进一步通过计算两个半球上太阳活动指数的实际概率说明了太阳活动的不对称性。结果显示：（1）在第23周开始的前6年左右,太阳活动存在微弱的不对称性;（2）不同太阳活动现象或指数的不对称性,并不发生在同一活动周的同一时期。     

地磁活动指数与太阳活动的小波分析

根据1957—2012年的地磁指数Ap、Dst、AE和太阳活动参数(太阳黑子相对数R与太阳射电流量F10.7)数据,利用小波分析方法研究了地磁活动与太阳活动的关系.结果表明,Ap、Dst、AE指数和太阳活动参数均存在准11 a和准22 a的周期特征.Ap和AE峰值滞后于太阳参数峰值1~2 a;而Dst指数与太阳参数存在近似负相关的关系,但从第21太阳周起逐渐延迟于太阳参数,表明地磁活动受太阳活动影响的滞后性.此外,地磁指数峰值从第20太阳周开始有逐渐下降的趋势,反映了地磁活动对太阳活动的响应减弱.     

基于三维区域标记对太阳活动区低色球层亮点的统计分析?

研究太阳活动能量的统计分布,以探索日冕物质加热的物理机制.利用一种基于三维区域标记的算法,使用"日出"卫星拍摄的低色球层λ3968.5单色像时间序列,观测一个处于衰减阶段且爆发频繁的活动区,对多个数量级尺度的亮点进行识别和统计.获得了2.09×104个亮点样本,分析了太阳耀斑基本物理量的频数分布与幂律的关系,以及影响该分布的观测效应.数据分析的主要结果如下:1)低色球层亮点的尺度、面积、光通量服从幂律分布.2)寿命的频数在中等时标呈幂律分布,在长时标呈指数分布;大尺度亮点的等待时间符合指数分布.3)亮点发生率的信噪比随其尺度的增加而减小;小尺度亮点持续的产生有可能向日冕稳定地提供能量.4)微小尺度亮点的频数低于幂律分布,相当程度上受观测数据的低时间分辨率所造成的低采样率影响.     

太阳黑子周形态的由来(Ⅰ)

本文讨论了两个问题: (1)在太阳对流层内的大尺度“其本磁场”的形成问题,以及它所决定的黑子周的特征。 (2)太阳活动区黑子的偶极磁场形成问题。 我们提出了太阳核心是一个具有二十二年周期的磁偶极振荡子的假设,它所产生的太阳磁流波的经向磁场不断地向外渗透到较差自转层内被放大,从而形成了具有很大纬向分量的“基本磁场”,它的特征决定了黑子周的形态。 基本磁场产生了磁浮力,我们得到它是一个磁雷诺数很小的上浮运动,因而它不是冻结的磁力线管的上升,而是磁力对流运动。并且在对流气泡横越基本磁场的过程中,形成了围绕气泡的磁环,当它浮至太阳表面便是活动区的偶极磁场。     

太阳活动、大气环流与贵州夏旱的关系

本文分析了太阳活动及大气环流对贵州夏旱的影响,特别是对太阳11年周期活动和西太平洋副高与夏旱的关系作了重点分析,主要结论如下: 1.太阳11年周期活动的高峰年,夏季降水量偏多,太阳活动高峰年的次年,夏季降水量偏少 2.太阳11年周期活动的高峰年,出现夏旱的机率最小;而太阳活动高峰年的次年,夏季出现大旱的频率最大。 3.西太平洋副热带高压脊在七月上中旬之后较长时间地稳定在北纬25°以北,这是     

22周和23周太阳黑子相对数峰值趋势分析

太阳活动第22周从1986年9月开始.本周初始阶段的活动比一般的周频繁,是否会成为高活动周还是问题.为此,本文作了进一步的研究,分析了古代的和现代的相关资料.从统计结果和物理分析结果看22周太阳黑于相对数峰值R_M(22)不会超过21周的峰值R_M(21).预报,R_M(22)相似文献   

Latitude migration of solar activity at high latitudes

Utilized here is the Carte Synoptique solar filament archive, namely the catalogue of solar filaments from March 1919 to December 1989, corresponding to solar rotation numbers 876 to 1823 to study latitudinal migration of solar activity at high latitudes. Except the well-known poleward migration of solar activity from middle latitudes to the poles, an equatorward migration is found from the solar poles toward middle latitudes （about 40°） within a normal cycle, which is neglected before, and the time interval for the former migration （4.4 years） is about 2.2 years shorter than that for the latter （6.6 years）, indicating that the change from one migration to the other takes place around the maximum time of a normal cycle. In the future, a dynamo model should represent the migration from the poles toward middle latitudes of the Sun, besides the migration in ＂butterfly diagrams＂ and the ＂rush to the poles＂. The traditional extended activity cycle is actually a part of the period of the successive migration from the poles toward the solar equator.     

Solar activity effects of the ionosphere: A brief review

Solar radiation, which varies over multiple temporal scales, modulates remarkably the evolution of the ionosphere. The solar activity dependence of the ionosphere is a key and fundamental issue in ionospheric physics, providing information essential to understanding the variations in the ionosphere and its processes. Selected recent studies on solar activity effects of the ionosphere are briefly reviewed in this report. This report focuses on (1) observations of solar irradiance at X-ray and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths and the outstanding problems of solar proxies, in the view of ionospheric studies, (2) new findings and improved representations of the features of the solar activity dependence of ionospheric key parameters and the corresponding physical processes, (3) possible phenomena in the ionosphere under extremely high and low solar activity conditions that are unique, as indicated by historical solar datasets and the deep solar minimum of solar cycle 23/24, and (4) statistical studies and model simulations of the ionosphere response to solar flares. The above-mentioned studies provide new clues for comprehensively explaining basic processes in the ionosphere and improving the prediction capability of ionospheric models and related applications.     

Revisit of short-term periodicities in solar mean magnetic field

Short-term variations of the solar mean magnetic field （SMMF） were investigated through re-analyzing the data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory during the last four solar activity cycles using continuous wavelet transforms. We demonstrated the time-variable characters of short-term periods of SMMF. Our results indicate that the SMMF has main periods of about 27 and 13.5 days not only in the minimum and maximum years of each activity cycle, but also in the increase and decrease of the solar cycle. The result is partly different from the conclusion that the SMMF has dominant period of about 27 days during the solar maxima and about 13.5 days during the solar minimum years （Ye et al. in Solar Phys 279：411418, 2012）. The entire time span of SMMF was investigated and discussed further.     

The nature of the solar activity during the Maunder Minimum revealed by the Guliya ice core record

Whether the solar activity was very low, and especially whether the solar cycle existed, during the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD), have been disputed for a long time. In this paper we use the Guliya NO₃ ⁻ data, which can reflect the solar activity, to analyze the characteristics of the solar activity during the Maunder Minimum. The results show that the solar activity was indeed low, and solar cycle displayed normal as present, i.e. about 11a, in that period. Moreover, it was found that the solar activity contains a 36-year periodic component probably, which might be related to the variations in the length of the sunspot cycle. This finding is of importance for the study of the relationship between the sun variability and the Earth climate change.     

Coronal structure and brightness profile of the total solar eclipse on August 1, 2008

Solar corona is the outermost part of the solar atmosphere. Coronal activities influence space environment between the Sun and the Earth, space weather and the Earth itself. The total solar eclipse （TSE） is the best opportunity to observe the solar corona on ground. During the TSE 2008, a series of images of the corona and partial eclipse of solar disk were obtained using telescope and CCD camera. After image processing, preliminary results of coronal structure are given, and radial brightness profiles of the corona in directions of pole and equator of the Sun are measured. Though in solar activity minimum, the shape and structure of the corona are not symmetry. The equatorial regions are more extent than the polar one, and there are also larger differences between the east and west equatorial regions and between the south and north polar regions. Coronal streamers on east side of the equator, particularly the largest one in east-south direction, are very obvious. The coronal plume in south polar region consists of more polar rays than that in north polar region. These structures are also shown in other observations and data of SOHO. The radial brightness profiles in directions of pole and equator are similar to those of the Van de Hulst model in solar minimum, but there are a few differences due to coronal activity, which is shown in the isophote map of the corona.     

低纬度地区太阳运动轨迹的研究

利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的数据研究了低纬度地区太阳方位角、高度角的变化规律,提出了与文献中不同的符合低纬度地区太阳方位角、高度角变化规律的计算公式,模拟得到低纬度地区太阳的运动轨迹,并验证了结果的正确性。     

公历置闰年方法的解析

历法的本质是对时间的度量问题,公历的核心问题是置闰年,公历是借助置闰协调历年与回归年之间的误差.利用辗转相除法将公历历年中的平年与回归年的误差同1作辗转相除,并按相除结果将0.242 2表为连分式.依次截取连分式,得到0.242 2的渐近分数序列.在其中选取8/33与31/128近似表示0.242 2,得33年8闰与128年31闰的置闰方法.在此基础上利用单位分数来表示31/128,得到一种复合周期置闰法,这便是公历的置闰规律.     

Accumulation in Dasuopu ice core in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and solar activity

The time series of accumulation in recent 300 years correlated well with solar activity in Dasuopu ice core. Results of spectrum analysis on the accumulation time series of the Dasuopu ice core shows that there are some periods that coincide with the periods of solar activity. By comparing the long-time change trend of the accumulation in the Dasuopu ice core with various kinds of indexes of solar activity intensity, a negative correlation is found between the trend and solar activity.