指挥决策系统中决策成员的信息处理策略

指挥决策系统中决策成员的信息处理策略冯新喜，刘作良，常国岑（西安空军电讯工程学院７１００７７）ＩｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｉｎｇＳｔｒａｔｅｇｙｏｆＤｅｃｉｓｉｏｎＭａｋｅｒｉｎＣｏｍｍａｎｄａｎｄＣｏｎｔｒｏｌＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＦｅｎｇＸｉｎｘ...     

Order Structure Analysis（OSA） for the Optimal Solutions of Multiple Objective Mathematical Programming

ＯｒｄｅｒＳｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓ（ＯＳＡ）ｆｏｒｔｈｅＯｐｔｉｍａｌＳｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｓｏｆＭｕｌｔｉｐｌｅＯｂｊｅｃｔｉｖｅＭａｔｈｅｍａｔｉｃａｌＰｒｏｇｒａｍｍｉｎｇＦＥＮＧＪｕｎｗｅｎ（ＳｏｆｔＳｃｉｅｎｃｅＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＩｎｓｔ...     

A Discrete Event Simulation Support System in C~( )

ＡＤｉｓｃｒｅｔｅＥｖｅｎｔＳｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎＳｕｐｐｏｒｔＳｙｓｔｅｍｉｎＣ~（＋＋）￥ＬＩＮＪｉａｎ（ＴｈｅＭａｎａｇｅｍｅｎｔＳｃｈｏｏｌＢｅｉｊｉｎｇＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙｏｆＡｅｒｏｎａｕｔｉｃｓａｎｄＡｓｔｒｏｎａｕｔｉｃｓＢｅｉｊｉｎｇ?..     

Economic Evaluation of a Water Source Project

ＥｃｏｎｏｍｉｃＥｖａｌｕａｔｉｏｎｏｆａＷａｔｅｒＳｏｕｒｃｅＰｒｏｊｅｃｔＷＡＮＧＳｈｉｌｉｎ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＳｃｉｅｎｃｅ，ＡｃａｄｅｍｉａＳｉｎｉｃａ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ，１０００８０）ＸＵＥＹｉｍｉｎｇ（ＢｅｉｊｉｎｇＢｕ...     

Study on Variation of Parameters Formula and Stability for Impulsive Time－Delay Nonlinear Large Scale Systems

ＳｔｕｄｙｏｎＶａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｏｆＰａｒａｍｅｔｅｒｓＦｏｒｍｕｌａａｎｄＳｔａｂｉｌｉｔｙｆｏｒＩｍｐｕｌｓｉｖｅＴｉｍｅ－ＤｅｌａｙＮｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒＬａｒｇｅＳｃａｌｅＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＧＵＡＮＺｈｉｈｏｎｇ（Ｄｅｐｔ．ｏｆＢａｓｉｃＳｃｉｅｎｃ...     

SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES

ＳＹＳＴＥＭＳＳＣＩＥＮＣＥＡＮＤＭＡＴＨＥＭＡＴＩＣＡＬＳＣＩＥＮＣＥＳ￥（ＩｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎｆｏｒＡｕｔｈｏｒｓ）ＴｈｅＥｎｇｌｉｓｈｅｄｉｔｉｏｎｏｆＳｙｓｌｅｍｓＳｃｉｅｎｃｅａｎｄＭａｌｈｅｍａｌｌｃａｌＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓｉｓｄｉｓｔｒｉ...     

Study on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Simulation Schemes of Socio－economic Systems

ＳｔｕｄｙｏｎＦｕｚｚｙＣｏｍｐｒｅｈｅｎｓｉｖｅＥｖａｌｕａｔｉｏｎｏｆＳｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎＳｃｈｅｍｅｓｏｆＳｏｃｉｏ－ｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃＳｙｓｔｅｍｓ￥ＷＡＮＧＺｏｎｇｊｕｎ（ＣｏｌｌｅｇｅｏｆＢｕｓｉｎｅｓｓａｎｄＭａｎａｇｅｍｅｎｔＨｕａｚｈ...     

SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES

ＳＹＳＴＥＭＳＳＣＩＥＮＣＥＡＮＤＭＡＴＨＥＭＡＴＩＣＡＬＳＣＩＥＮＣＥＳ（ＩｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎｆｏｒＡｕｔｈｏｒｓ）ＴｈｅＥｎｇｌｉｓｈｅｄｉｔｉｏｎｏｆＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＳｃｉｅｎｃｅａｎｄＭａｔｈｅｍａｔｉｃａｌＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓｉｓｄｉｓｔｒｉｂ...     

Integration of Decision－Support and Knowledge－Based Techniques in a Problem－Solving Strategy for Sel

ＩｎｔｅｇｒａｔｉｏｎｏｆＤｅｃｉｓｉｏｎ－ＳｕｐｐｏｒｔａｎｄＫｎｏｗｌｅｄｇｅ－ＢａｓｅｄＴｅｃｈｎｉｑｕｅｓｉｎａＰｒｏｂｌｅｍ－ＳｏｌｖｉｎｇＳｔｒａｔｅｇｙｆｏｒＳｅｌｅｃｔｉｏｎＰｒｏｂｌｅｍｓＤａｖｉｄＭｃＳｈｅｒｒｙ（Ｓｃｈｏｏｌｏｆ...     

SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES

ＳＹＳＴＥＭＳＳＣＩＥＮＣＥＡＮＤＭＡＴＨＥＭＡＴＩＣＡＬＳＣＩＥＮＣＥＳ（ＩｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎｆｏｒＡｕｔｈｏｒｓ）ＴｈｅＥｎｇｌｉｓｈｅｄｉｔｉｏｎｏｆＳｙｓｆｅｍｓＳｃｉｅｎｃｅａｎｄＭａｌｈｅｍａｆｉｃａｌＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓｉｓｄｉｓｔｒｉｂ...     

基于粒子群改进算法的信息系统外包组合决策模型

针对外包项目优选决策涉及到成本和效益这两类相互冲突的评价准则,提出了多准则妥协解排序法与投影寻踪模型相结合的组合决策模型,进行外包项目的优先排序.鉴于该模型求解属复杂非线性优化问题,常规方法难以直接处理,建立了微粒群改进算法,进行全局寻优.决策过程中去掉了主观确定权重的步骤,避免了人为因素的干扰,实现了完全由数据驱动的外包项目选择.通过实例证明了模型和算法的有效性和实用性.     

概率区间型决策的统计优势

概率区间型决策的统计优势高峰记（济南陆军学院，２５００２９）ＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌＳｕｐｅｒｉｏｒｉｔｙｏｆＤｅｃｉｓｉｏｎＭａｋｉｎｇｕｎｄｅｒＩｎｔｅｒｖａｌｏｆｔｈｅＰｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｉｅｓＧａｏＦｅｎｇｊｉ（Ｊｉ＇ｎａｎＭｉｌｉｔａｒｙＡｃ...     

基于Vague集的雷达导引头干扰效果评估

针对雷达导引头的干扰效果评估问题,利用模糊理论建立了基于Vague集的干扰效果评价模型,考虑到多人参与决策的情况,并进行了重要改进,取得了较好的效果。首先,针对实际中存在个别决策者意见严重偏离绝大多数的决策者意见的情况,利用模糊集距离的概念,排除了偏离最大的决策Vague集,即去除了决策者意见中的“野值”。而后,定义了综合决策Vague集,用改进的综合评估算法对综合决策Vague集进行处理,得出评估结果。最后,结合交叉眼干扰的具体实例,说明方法的可行性和优越性。     

基于效用风险熵的多情景混合型风险决策方法及应用

针对多情景混合型的风险决策问题,考虑决策者期望和心理行为特征,提出一种基于效用风险熵的决策分析方法。首先,分析并总结多情景混合型风险决策信息的结构特征;然后引入前景理论价值函数,将属性值与期望参照点对比,作为决策者所感知的“损益值”,计算各结果情景下的综合效用价值;进一步综合考虑结果情景效用价值及发生概率的双因素作用,通过直接定义效用风险系数和效用风险函数,基于效用风险熵对方案的整体效用风险大小进行度量并排序;最后,通过算例分析,验证该方法的合理有效性。     

超对策理论的改进及应用

超对策技术主要处理军事或经济贸易冲突中出现的信息失真, 态势误判情形下双方的决策分析选择, 这也是一种定量研究欺骗与反欺骗战术的方法。决策目标(目的)与决策分析选择实施过程有机结合是赵对策技术的一个尚不完善之处。本文提出“制约垒”概念来反映基于决策目标之下决策分析、选择、控制的动态过程, 最后以“海湾危机”全过程为实际背景, 用改进的超对策方法进行了分析。     

装配式供应链企业间缺货惩罚契约模式设计

针对零配件供应商产量不确定对制造商后期装配生产的影响, 本文在一个“两供应商-单制造商”构成的二阶装配式供应链系统中, 构建了分散决策下的供应链成员利润模型和集中决策下的供应链总利润模型. 并研究了不同类型缺货惩罚的设定对供应商产量决策的影响, 从提高供应商协同积极性的角度提出了一种惩罚契约模式, 使供应商主动选择集中决策下的供应链最佳产量. 数值分析表明该模式可以调节供应链总利润在供应商与制造商之间的分配, 这有利于促进供应链成员之间关系的和谐.     

处理冲突证据的一致性组合规则

在分布式融合系统中,通信延迟等因素会导致融合节点获得证据的顺序不同,使用传统证据组合规则难以得到一致的组合结果。根据组合规则基本性质可知,当组合规则不满足结合性时,证据顺序的不同会导致组合结果的差异。多数冲突证据组合规则,在解决Dempster组合规则冲突悖论的同时失去了结合性;部分冲突证据组合规则以组合结果不确定性为代价保持了结合性,但结果不确定性严重影响了用户决策。从冲突信度保留再分配的角度出发,使用自由Dezert Smarandache(DSm)模型保留先前冲突信度,基于先前冲突信度及当前证据生成权重,通过权重对先前冲突信度和当前冲突信度再分配完成证据组合。提出方法降低了证据顺序对组合结果的影响,在证据乱序情况下能够保持较好的一致性。数值算例验证了该方法的有效性。     

基于格序理论的管理者绩效评价方法

在绩效评价过程中,对于各级指标评价结果的处理,传统的方法均以打分后线性加权来比较评价对象的优差,以此确定其是否合格.一般的多层次多目标评价体系,不仅包括定性指标还包括定量指标,由于不同的量纲同时存在而无法用这种简单的线性加权方法得出合理的评价结果.文章引入格序决策理论,为解决这个缺陷进行了积极的探索,初次将模糊多目标多层次格序决策方法应用到管理者绩效评价中,以国有独资企业中7家有代表性的制造公司的总经理为例进行了算例分析.结果显示,这种方法克服了多目标之间的“不可公度性”和“矛盾性”特点,是一种客观合理、准确性较高的评价方法.     

The design of an epistemology for the management discipline which resolves dilemmas among ethical and other imperatives

We outline an epistemology to resolve dilemmas among conflicting imperatives which arise in management situations involving action programs which are “useful” economically and technically but which, at the same time, must satisfy, among others, aesthetic, ethical, and legal requirements. These “situations” occur in problem domains such as management science, environmental management, conservation management (the science devoted to the protection and preservation of our cultural and historical heritage), urban planning, government administration, and the like. Basically, these actions programs are designed to “improve the state of the real world” and take into account the inevitable conflicts and tradeoffs which inhibit maximization of objectives. In the end, the epistemological framework which is proposed leads to the formulation of a methodology to reconcile the economic, scientific, political, legal, ethical, epistemological, and aesthetic imperatives, in the context of a strategic and pragmatic framework.     

Economic Model of Official Crime based on Life Cycle Hypothesis

The dynamic characteristic of official crime will be analyzed by an economic model based on life cycle hypothesis. The model mainly considers the following relevant factors: the risk of being caught and the associated punishment, legislation, work and retirement wage, and retirement age and life expectancy. The official is assumed to be risk neutral. His decision variable is illegal income. The official's objective is to maximize the expected utility subjected to a dynamic constraint. We obtain the explicit expressions for the optimal strategy and the corresponding utility. The main results are as follows: Under certain conditions, it is rational for an official to get income illegally before retirement, and a higher punishment is not necessarily an effective way to deter official crime; the higher the income difference before and after retirement, the higher the probability of official crime. A reduction in retirement age will probably increase official crime. The more the resource that an official controls, the later is the beginning time of official crime. The income pattern that work wage increases with time is helpful to reduce official crime. The effect of income level on official crime reflects some kind of “level effect” and “asymmetrical effect” associated with institutional environments.