Linear combination of forecasts with an intercept: A bayesian approach

The standard approach to combining n expert forecasts involves taking a weighted average. Granger and Ramanathan proposed introducing an intercept term and unnormalized weights. This paper deduces their proposal from Bayesian principles. We find that their formula is equivalent to taking a weighted average of the n expert forecasts plus the decision-maker's prior forecast.     

Estimating the strength of expert judgement: The case of US mortality forecasts

The use of expert judgement is an important part of demographic forecasting. However, because judgement enters into the forecasting process in an informal way, it has been very difficult to assess its role relative to the analysis of past data. The use of targets in demographic forecasts permits us to embed the subjective forecasting process into a simple time-series regression model, in which expert judgement is incorporated via mixed estimation. The strength of expert judgement is denned, and estimated using the official forecasts of cause-specific mortality in the United States. We show that the weight given to judgement varies in an improbable manner by age. Overall, the weight given to judgement appears too high. An alternative approach to combining expert judgement and past data is suggested.     

Interactional expertise through the looking glass: a peek at mirror neurons

Interactional expertise is here to stay. Undoubtedly, in some sense of the word, one can attain a linguistic expert level within a field without full scale practical immersion. In the context of the idea of embodied cognition, the claim is provocative. How can an interactional expert acquire full linguistic competence without the simultaneous bodily engagement and real life interaction needed to get the language right? How can one understand the concept of hammering if one has never seen a hammer or felt the weight of the iron head on a fragile thumb? Here I will explore a strange and second-hand way in which bodily engagement could have an impact on our linguistic abilities; this is via the so called mirror neuron system. Since the mirror neuron system blurs the distinction between first and third person activity it can help us understand some of the enigmatic aspects of interactional expertise and pose further questions for research.     

Trust in expert testimony: Eddington's 1919 eclipse expedition and the British response to general relativity

The 1919 British astronomical expedition led by Arthur Stanley Eddington to observe the deflection of starlight by the sun, as predicted by Einstein's relativistic theory of gravitation, is a fascinating example of the importance of expert testimony in the social transmission of scientific knowledge. While Popper lauded the expedition as science at its best, accounts by Earman and Glymour, Collins and Pinch, and Waller are more critical of Eddington's work. Here I revisit the eclipse expedition to dispute the characterization of the British response to general relativity as the blind acceptance of a partisan's pro-relativity claims by colleagues incapable of criticism. Many factors served to make Eddington the trusted British expert on relativity in 1919, and his experimental results rested on debatable choices of data analysis, choices criticized widely since but apparently not widely by his British contemporaries. By attending to how and to whom Eddington presented his testimony and how and by whom this testimony was received, I suggest, we may recognize as evidentially significant corroborating testimony from those who were expert not in relativity but in observational astronomy. We are reminded that even extraordinary expert testimony is neither offered nor accepted entirely in an epistemic vacuum.     

Modeling expert forecasting knowledge for incorporation into expert systems

The use of continuous multivariate models to represent experts' knowledge of relations among a set of variables is reviewed. Such knowledge models can be incorporated into expert systems, complementing contingent rules, especially when representing experts' knowledge of functional relations among entities in noisy domains. Past work has most commonly involved linear averaging models in static domains, although nonlinear models and dynamic domains are also possible. Detecting errors in continuous multivariate models requires a different approach from detecting errors in collections of if-then rules. Methods for eliciting expert knowledge include modeling judgments made in real or hypothetical situations and using expert's self-insight directly to assist in construction of the model. Procedures for managing each of these methods have been computerized and could be included as elicitation tools in expert system building environments.     

How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?

In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists using micro data from the euro area Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of evaluation measures which take account of the entire predictive densities, and not just the probability assigned to the outcome that occurs. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. However, it is hard to exploit this heterogeneity and improve aggregate performance by trimming poorly performing forecasters in real time. Relative to a set of simple benchmarks, density performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, we report evidence of an improvement in the relative performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in expert probability assessments, as reflected in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting growth with time series models

This paper compares the structure of three models for estimating future growth in a time series. It is shown that a regression model gives minimum weight to the last observed growth and maximum weight to the observed growth in the middle of the sample period. A first-order integrated ARIMA model, or 1(1) model, gives uniform weights to all observed growths. Finally, a second-order integrated ARIMA model gives maximum weights to the last observed growth and minimum weights to the observed growths at the beginning of the sample period. The forecasting performance of these models is compared using annual output growth rates for seven countries.     

Efficient use of information in the formation of subjective industry forecasts

The paper considers the use of information by a panel of expert industry forecasters, focusing on their information-processing biases. The panel forecasts construction output by sector up to three years ahead. It is found that the biases observed in laboratory experiments, particularly ‘anchoring’, are observable. The expectations are formed by adjusting the previous forecast to take new information into account. By analysing forecast errors it is concluded that the panel overweight recently released information and do not understand the dynamics of the industry. However, their forecasts, both short and long term, are better than an alternative econometric model, and combining the two sources of forecasts leads to a deterioration in forecast accuracy. The expert forecasts can be ‘de-biased’, and this leads to the conclusion that it is better to optimally process information sources than to combine (optimally) alternative forecasts.     

Witnesses of the body: medico-legal cases in seventeenth-century Rome

Studying early modern medico-legal testimonies can enrich our understanding of witnessing, the focus of much research in the history of science. Expert testimonies were well established in the Roman Cannon law, but the sphere of competence of expert witnesses - one of the grounds on which seventeenth-century physicians claimed social and intellectual authority- troubled contemporary jurists. By reconstructing these debates in Counter Reformation Rome, and by placing in them the testimonies given by Poalo Zacchia, one of the founding fathers of legal medicine, this article discusses the epistemological and social issues surrounding the definition of expertise about the body in court. It shows how a high-ranking expert witness would define his competence versus the legal authority on the one hand, lower-status expert witnesses on the other. But it also explores the interactions between specific legal constraints, for example about eye witnessing, and the ways in which different kinds of witnesses would use the body as a source of evidence for testimony. While engaging with medico-legal issues including the ambiguous signs of childbirth and the (in)visibility of pain, the article examines their meanings within Counter Reformation social controversies, including control over sexuality, imposition of discipline and the social status of physicians.     

Behavioural consequences of vasectomy in the mouse

Summary Vasectomy was found to have no influence on the sexual activity of male mice. Testis and seminal vesicle weights were similary not influenced by this operation although a significant increase in epididymus weight was observed.J. C. is grateful to the Ford Foundation for financial support.     

A non-linear combination of experts' forecasts: A Bayesian approach

A general Bayesian approach to combining n expert forecasts is developed. Under some moderate assumptions on the distributions of the expert errors, it leads to a consistent, monotonic, quasi-linear average formula. This generalizes Bordley's results.     

Chromosomes of the black abalone (Haliotis cracherodii)

Summary The chromosomes of the black abalone Haliotis cracherodii are described for the first time. The diploid number is 36, with no apparent sexual dimorphism.This work was performed under the auspices of the U. S. ERDA Contract No. W-7405-ENG-48.I thank Dr Florence Harrison for her expert dissections.     

Communicating junctions between pillar cells in the gills of the atlantic hagfish,Myxine glutinosa

Summary In the respiratory lamellae of the gills of the atlantic hagfish,Myxine glutinosa, pillar cells are coupled by communicating junctions. It is suggested that these cells behave like a functional syncytium.Supported by the DFG, SFB 146. The authors are indebted to Drs F. Walvig and H. Stolte for kindly providing the hagfish. The expert technical assistance of G. Voss-Wermbter, Dipl.-Ing., and H. Heidrich is gratefully acknowledged.     

Combining expert‐adjusted forecasts

It is well known that a combination of model‐based forecasts can improve upon each of the individual constituent forecasts. Most forecasts available in practice are, however, not purely based on econometric models but entail adjustments, where experts with domain‐specific knowledge modify the original model forecasts. There is much evidence that expert‐adjusted forecasts do not necessarily improve the pure model‐based forecasts. In this paper we show, however, that combined expert‐adjusted model forecasts can improve on combined model forecasts, in the case when the individual expert‐adjusted forecasts are not better than their associated model‐based forecasts. We discuss various implications of this finding.     

Do experts' adjustments on model‐based SKU‐level forecasts improve forecast quality?

Model‐based SKU‐level forecasts are often adjusted by experts. In this paper we propose a statistical methodology to test whether these expert forecasts improve on model forecasts. Application of the methodology to a very large database concerning experts in 35 countries who adjust SKU‐level forecasts for pharmaceutical products in seven distinct categories leads to the general conclusion that expert forecasts are equally good at best, but are more often worse than model‐based forecasts. We explore whether this is due to experts putting too much weight on their contribution, and this indeed turns out to be the case. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Early changes of cyclic nucleotide levels in a mitogenic reaction in the rat mesentery

Summary By measuring simultaneously cAMP and cGMP we found a biphasic time course with regard to cGMP and the cGMP/cAMP ratio very early in a mitogenic reaction in vivo. This is a new finding.This work was supported by the Swedish Cancer Society and the Swedish Medical Research Council (project No. 04X-04498). We are indebted to Marcela Bartonek and Margareta Odenö for expert technical assistance and to Erik Leander for help with statistical matters.     

The professor and the pea: Lives and afterlives of William Bateson’s campaign for the utility of Mendelism

As a defender of the fundamental importance of Mendel’s experiments for understanding heredity, the English biologist William Bateson (1861–1926) did much to publicize the usefulness of Mendelian science for practical breeders. In the course of his campaigning, he not only secured a reputation among breeders as a scientific expert worth listening to but articulated a vision of the ideal relations between pure and applied science in the modern state. Yet historical writing about Bateson has tended to underplay these utilitarian elements of his program, to the extent of portraying him, notably in still-influential work from the 1960s and 1970s, as a type specimen of the scientist who could not care less about application. This paper offers a corrective view of Bateson himself—including the first detailed account of his role as an expert witness in a courtroom dispute over the identity of a commercial pea variety—and an inquiry into the historiographic fate of his efforts in support of Mendelism’s productivity. For all that a Marxian perspective classically brings applied science to the fore, in Bateson’s case, and for a range of reasons, it did the opposite during the Cold War.     

Weights and robustness of model-based seasonal adjustment

Model-based seasonal adjustment implicitly defines a set of weights at the ends of series as well as in the middle. Until now, with the exception of very simple models, the weights have been obtained numerically. In this paper we give the analytical expressions for the weights for both the structural and the ARIMA framework for a model which contains trend, seasonal and irregular component. In the final part of the paper we address the question of robustness of model-based seasonal adjustment. We analyse practically, using real time series, and theoretically, through the analysis of the shape of the weights, how the fitting of different specifications for the non-seasonal part affects the extraction of the seasonal component. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of chemicals in early chick embryos in ovo: A precaution

Summary A passive diffusion method is described and is compared with other methods for the application of chemicals in early chick embryos in ovo.Acknowledgments. We thank Mrs Irene Panagopoulou for expert technical assistance.     

Forecasting Elections

In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. In line with existing literature, we bias‐correct opinion polls. We consider accuracy, bias and precision over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to provide the most precise forecasts and are similar in terms of bias to opinion polls. We find that our statistical model struggles to provide competitive forecasts, while expert opinion appears to be of value. Finally we note that the forecast horizon matters; whereas prediction market forecasts tend to improve the nearer an election is, opinion polls appear to perform worse, while expert opinion performs consistently throughout. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.