Does democracy require value-neutral science? Analyzing the legitimacy of scientific information in the political sphere

Philosophers now commonly reject the value free ideal for science by arguing that non-epistemic values, including personal or social values, are permissible within the core of scientific research. However, little attention has been paid to the normative political consequences of this position. This paper explores these consequences and shows how political theory is fruitful for proceeding in a world without value-neutral science. I draw attention to an oft-overlooked argument employed by proponents of the value free ideal I dub the “political legitimacy argument.” This argument claims that the value-free ideal follows directly from the foundational principles of liberal democracy. If so, then the use of value-laden scientific information within democratic decision making would be illegitimate on purely political grounds. Despite highlighting this unaddressed and important argument, I show how it can be rejected. By appealing to deliberative democratic theory, I demonstrate scientific information can be value-laden and politically legitimate. The deliberative democratic account I develop is well suited for capturing the intuitions of many opponents of the value free ideal and points to a new set of questions for those interested in values in science.     

Political forecasting as a management tool

Political forces in developing countries permeate and significantly shape the business environment. Yet the political information used by managers is usually general, subjective and superficial. Managers lack an appropriate analytical framework for systematically examining political factors and forecasting their impact on the firm. This paper attempts to present such a framework. The framework focuses on the impact of political forces on development strategies, public policies and policy instruments. It then discusses how the analysis of these factors can be made managerially relevant by integrating them with firm specific characteristics and corporate strategy. This approach departs from many of the traditional political forecasting techniques which only concentrate on macro-level factors and indicators.     

How to think about shared norms and pluralism without circularity: A reply to Anna Leuschner

Anna Leuschner argues that there is problematic circularity in Helen Longino's approach that postulates the existence of some shared norms as a necessary precondition for well-functioning pluralistic communities. As an alternative, Leuschner proposes to approach the establishing of more pluralistic communities through political means on a case-by-case basis, taking relevant epistemic and political factors into account. In this paper, I argue that there is an alternative understanding of norms that avoids circularity. I do so by drawing on Isabelle Peschard's discussion of shared practice. I go on to show that norms, so understood, are important in the cases where a political decision may not alone be sufficient for establishing a successful community. Specifically, I discuss pluralistic communities that include laypersons in possession of relevant expertise as an example.     

A successive filtering technique for identifying long-term trends

The most reliable component of a time series, for forecasting purposes, is the shape of the long-term trend. However, the presence of cycles makes it difficult to identify and predict the changes in such trends. While up to now emphasis has been given in identifying and measuring cyclical behaviour, this paper presents a technique that aims at removing cyclical effects from the long-term trends. This technique is based on a transformation that is successively applied on the original time series. Each time the transformation is applied, an observation is selected and replaced by the average of its adjacent observations. This results in the elimination of the cyclical component. Independently of their depth, the cycles are being removed in ascending order relatively to their length. This leads to 'brushing off' the long-term trends from any cyclical effects. A specialized software has been developed in Pascal. The proposed technique was applied in a set of time series from the M2- and M-competition and the results are presented in this paper.     

The Left Vienna Circle, Part 2. The Left Vienna Circle, disciplinary history, and feminist philosophy of science

This paper analyzes the claim that the Left Vienna Circle (LVC) offers a theoretical and historical precedent for a politically engaged philosophy of science today. I describe the model for a political philosophy of science advanced by LVC historians. They offer this model as a moderate, properly philosophical approach to political philosophy of science that is rooted in the analytic tradition. This disciplinary-historical framing leads to weaknesses in LVC scholars’ conception of the history of the LVC and its contemporary relevance. In this light, I examine the claim that there are productive enrichments to be gained from the engagement of feminist philosophy of science with the LVC, finding this claim ill-formulated. The case of LVC historiography and feminist philosophy of science presents a revealing study in the uses and ethics of disciplinary history, showing how feminist and other perspectives are misconceived and marginalized by forms of disciplinary self-narrativizing.     

The Eclipse,the Astronomer and his Audience: Frederico Oom and the Total Solar Eclipse of 28 May 1900 in Portugal

This study offers a detailed analysis of an episode of the popularization of astronomy which took place in Portugal, a peripheral country of Europe, and occurring in the early twentieth century. The episode was driven by the 28 May 1900 total solar eclipse which was seen on the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain). Instead of focusing on one of the ends of the popularization process, we analyze the circulation of knowledge among scientists and the public, contrast the aims of the various expeditions, professional and amateur, which took place on Portuguese soil, analyze their repercussions in the Portuguese astronomical landscape, and the different ways used by the Portuguese political elite and astronomical community to successfully appropriate this astronomical event to serve their varied agendas, political, social and scientific. In this episode of public enthusiasm for science, a central figure emerged in the network of the official commission, professional and amateur communities and the ‘general public’: Frederico Tomás Oom (1864–1930), an astronomer of the Lisbon Astronomical Observatory. This paper aims to illustrate the different layers of the circulation process, and at proving that the popularization of science was not a unidirectional process from scientists to lay people nor did it serve only a particular agenda, be it political, social or scientific.     

Scientific freedom: its grounds and their limitations

In various debates about science, appeal is made to the freedom of scientific research. A rationale in favor of this freedom is rarely offered. In this paper, two major arguments are reconstructed that promise to lend support to a principle of scientific freedom. According to the epistemological argument, freedom of research is required in order to organize the collective cognitive effort we call science efficiently. According to the political argument, scientific knowledge needs to be generated in ways that are independent of the major political powers because of the important role it plays for the citizens and their capacity to form well informed political preferences. Both arguments are examined critically in order to identify their strengths and limitations. I argue that the scientific freedom established by both rests on a number of critical preconditions, and that the arguments’ force must be weighed against competing societal interests and values in each case of their application. Appeal to a principle of scientific freedom should therefore never mark the end, but rather the beginning of a public debate about the ends and means of science.     

Between relativism and pluralism: Philosophical and political relativism in Feyerabend's late work

Relativism is one of the most problematic terms associated with philosophical discourse, with Feyerabend considered among the most important twentieth century theorists subscribing to it. This paper provides a detailed overview of relativist positions advanced in Feyerabend's mid-to-late work and investigates the associated epistemic and political applications. Emphasis is placed on how Feyerabend supported certain aspects of relativism, and at what stage he rejected others. It is noted that Feyerabend had already imposed limitations on relativism in Farewell to Reason, in which he entertained the possibility of epistemic definition within stable contexts, and advanced the notion that opportunities and equality associated with political and cultural units could only be valid within a democratic system. In Conquest of Abundance, political relativism is largely discarded, while epistemological relativism is increasingly treated as an appeal for diversity in all areas.In this re-reading of his work, it becomes clear that Feyerabend was already advocating a moderate form of epistemic and political relativism in the middle of his career, which he subsequently developed in the direction of “ontological pluralism” in his later work. This paper thus shows that Feyerabend's relativism should not be completely rejected, but rather that it continues to offer interesting food for thought.     

On a Lecture Trip to Spain: the Scientific Relations Between Germany and Spain During the Entente Boycott (1919–1926)

The aim of this paper is to analyse the scientific relations between Germany and Spain during the Entente Boycott (1919–1926) and the German academic policy that fostered it. The study of the international relations of German science during the 1920s has been carried out using as a basis the archives of scientific institutions. Personal initiatives by individual scientists to establish relations have therefore not been taken into account. The relations between the scientific communities of Germany and Spain during the 1920s indicate the importance of such personal relationships and from their transcendence at a political level. They also offer an example of how political strategies could dictate the politics of academic recognition. This paper is based on the analysis of sources found at the Foreign Office Archives in Berlin. It gives us a clear idea about the role of scientific relationships between the two countries in shaping their scientific policies.     

Pluralism and objectivity: Exposing and breaking a circle

The paper argues that Helen Longino’s pluralism implies circularity as it claims a preferably high number of qualified contributions to any scientific discussion that aims for objectivity, but does not regard the question who or what sets and employs the standards that rule the decision who is qualified to contribute and who is not. Therefore, objectivity is premised for a process that is to generate that very objectivity. Philip Kitcher’s ideal of democratization of science seems only to bypass the problem by introducing ideal deliberators tutored by appropriate experts, as for the implementation of this ideal the deliberators and experts, again, would have to be appointed by someone. However, Kitcher’s approach is based on a Rawlsian egalitarism and in this sense calls for political intrusion which could be based on case-by-case decisions. This offers a solution. I will illuminate the problem by some examples from climatology and demonstrate how Kitcher’s approach can help to tackle the problem by a final case study of pluralism in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Challenging Expertise: Paul Feyerabend vs. Harry Collins & Robert Evans on democracy,public participation and scientific authority: Paul Feyerabend vs. Harry Collins & Robert Evans on scientific authority and public participation

This paper compares Feyerabend's arguments in Science in a Free Society to the controversial theory of expertise proposed by Harry Collins and Robert Evans as a Third Wave of Science Studies. Is the legitimacy of democratic decisions threatened by the unquestioned authority of scientific advice? Or does, on the contrary, science need protection from too much democratic participation in technical decisions? Where Feyerabend's political relativism envisions democratic society as inherently pluralist and demands equal contribution of all traditions and worldviews to public decision-making, Collins and Evans hold a conception of elective modernism, defending the reality and value of technical expertise and arguing that science deserves a privileged status in modern democracies, because scientific values are also democratic values. I will argue that Feyerabend's political relativism provides a valuable framework for the evaluation of Collins' and Evans' theory of expertise. By constructing a dialog between Feyerabend and this more recent approach in Science and Technology Studies, the aim of this article is not only to show where the two positions differ and in what way they might be reconciled, but also how Feyerabend's philosophy provides substantial input to contemporary debate.     

Forecasting industrial production using non-linear methods

Numerous theoretical models suggests that business cycles involve nonlinear processes. In this paper we examine whether two parametric, nonlinear time-series models—the bilinear and threshold models—can exploit apparent non-linearity in industrial production to provide forecasts superior to those derived from the standard autoregressive models.     

International interdependence of business cycles in the manufacturing industry: The use of leading indicators for forecasting and analysis

This article introduces new leading indicators for fifteen industrialized countries which enable the business cycle in manufacturing to be forecast fairly reliably between 4 and 6 months ahead. These indicators are based on an improved variant of the NBER method, yielding a composite leading indicator characterized by less erratic movements and clear turning points. The indicators are used to explore the international interdependence of business cycles and to examine the degree to which this interdependence is affected by growing economic integration, as in the EC. For each of the countries studied, the various foreign economies affecting the local business climate are identified. Since the business cycles of some countries clearly lead those of others, this international interdependence can be used to further improve the predictive power of the leading indicators in the lagging countries.     

Idealisation,genetic explanations and political behaviours: Notes on the anti-reductionist critique of genopolitics

The rapid development of genetic research, determined, among others, by the requirements of The Human Genome Project, and a gradual reorientation in the perception of the role of nature and culture in the process of shaping complex networks of human relations by some political scientists, result in the increasing application of genetic data and methods in research regarding political behaviours. One of the key philosophical objections against the studies of the genetic foundations of political behaviours is that of excessive reductionism. This is supposed to manifest itself in the inadequate selection of the level of analysis for the explained phenomenon, the incompleteness of explanations and their low utility. My findings show that this objection is not sufficiently supported by contemporary science. Both studies using classical behavioural genetic methodologies and studies using DNA-based methods show that genes most likely play a role in political behaviours. Emphasising the significance of genetic influences in the midst of multiple extra-genetic interactions generates highly idealised explanations. Using the conceptual apparatus of the deformational concept of culture, I have demonstrated that the omission of a number of important extra-genetic influences by researchers is a consequence of focusing on specific causal patterns. This omission, however, does not entail negating the influence of non-genetic factors and, importantly, it may not have to be permanent. Following this approach, if correct, the reductionism of research into the genetic foundations of political behaviours is a standard cognitive procedure applied in science.     

Discrete Euler processes and their applications

This paper introduces discrete Euler processes and shows their application in detecting and forecasting cycles in non‐stationary data where periodic behavior changes approximately linearly in time. A discrete Euler process becomes a classical stationary process if ‘time’ is transformed properly. By moving from one time domain to another, one may deform certain time‐varying data to non‐time‐varying data. With these non‐time‐varying data on the deformed timescale, one may use traditional tools to do parameter estimation and forecasts. The obtained results then can be transformed back to the original timescale. For datasets with an underlying discrete Euler process, the sample M‐spectrum and the spectra estimator of a Euler model (i.e., EAR spectral) are used to detect cycles of a Euler process. Beam response and whale data are used to demonstrate the usefulness of a Euler model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Putting the Earth System in a numerical box? The evolution from climate modeling toward global change

Since the 1980s, climate modeling has undergone major transformations. The most prominent of these are the proliferation of coupled models and the integration within models of a growing number of environments and feedbacks. Climate modelers now increasingly define their object in terms of an “Earth System” instead of a “climate system”. In addition to this proliferation of coupled models, the carbon cycle and its feedback on various environments, from the atmosphere to the ocean and to vegetation cover, has become a prominent component of climate modeling. These transformations derive from the IPCC’s overall methodology, and are closely bound up with both a heightened awareness of the risks of climate change, as well as an issue of crucial political importance: the question of socio-economic/climate integration. In this article I follow, from a roughly chronological point of view, the major steps of this evolution and its links with the evolution of the political agenda. What can we say about this seemingly irreversible tendency to incorporate everything into models and to take account of everything that influences the Earth’s climate? Could we correlate it to the strong tendency toward globalization? How is the notion of climate itself affected? These are the main questions of the paper.     

Negotiated Measures : The Institutional Micropolitics of Official Criminal Justice Statistics

This paper examines some of the background social and institutional practices involved in the production of official statistics about crime and criminal justice. It documents how a host of micropolitical considerations impinge on what studies are conducted, which agencies control official data, and how measures are standardized. The communication of statistical facts is also shown to be influenced by a concern to prospectively manage the political symbolism of popular accounts about crime and criminal justice statistics.     

On the Virtues and Disadvantage of Quantification for Democratic Life

In this paper, a response to Ed Levy's discussion of medical quantification, I reflect on the ambitions of my book Trust in Numbers. I explore the idealized method of randomized clinical trials, revealed in his case study, as a social technology, one endowed with a persuasive scientific rationale but shaped also by political and social demands. The scholarly study of quantification requires not a choice between blind admiration and sweeping rejection, but a nuanced understanding. This should take into account not only the cognitive aspects of science, but also its role in relation to institutions and customs, examined with some specificity. While history is narrowed and distorted when it is written to support a position on some present issue, historical and social studies of science should at least provide tools of criticism. For this, the historian of science must look beyond narrow communities of specialists, and seek a wider perspective on science as an administrative tool and a bearer of cultural and political values.     

From the editors

Political forecasting provides the contextuality needed for decision-making and for forecasting ‘non-political’ trends. To gear political forecasting to these needs, rather than mimicking approaches in other areas, requires recognition of the distinctive nature of political trends, and realism regarding forecast uses, which generally do not benefit from ‘precise’ probabilities, predictions of only major events, or ‘sophisticated’ methodology that sacrifices comprehensiveness for explicitness. Approaches borrowed from other forecasting disciplines have been counterproductive, although contextual approaches, including cross-impact analyses and developmental constructs that integrate political and non-political trends, are promising. Explorations of the consistency of scenario dynamics, taking into account policy responses and non-formalizable complexity, are also useful. Thus the separation of political forecasting from political analysis should be minimized, calling for a redirection of effort away from developing methodology uniquely geared to forecasting, and towards organizing more comprehensive and systematic analytical efforts.     

Directed evolution as a tool for understanding and optimizing nucleic acid polymerase function

Polynucleotide polymerases play a crucial role in transmitting genetic information from generation to generation, and they are the most important reagents in biotechnology. Although classical crystal structure analyses as well as biochemical studies have significantly contributed to our understanding of how DNA polymerases function, surprising new insights regarding the importance of certain residues and protein motifs, or of their mutability have been achieved in recent years by evolutionary approaches. Directed evolution has also facilitated the generation of polymerases with tailored substrate repertoires or with stabilities and activities beyond those of their naturally evolved counterparts. Recent new insights in polymerase structure-function relationships and new achievements in the development of tailored polymerases for current methods of nucleic acid synthesis will be summarized in this article. Received 22 April 2005; received after revision 20 July 2005; accepted 27 July 2005