Fundamentals of the analytic network process — multiple networks with benefits,costs, opportunities and risks

The general theory of the ANP enables one to deal with the benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (the BOCR merits) of a decision, by introducing the notion of negative priorities for C and R along with the rating (not comparison) of the top priority alternative synthesized for each of the four merits in terms of strategic criteria to enable one to combine the four B, O, C, and R values of each alternative into a single outcome. Strategic criteria are very basic criteria individuals and groups use to assess whether they should make any of the many decisions they face in their daily operations. They do not depend on any particular decision for their priorities but are assessed in terms of the goals and values of the individual or organization. Synthesis is made with two formulas, one multiplicative and one additive subtractive that can give rise to negative overall priorities. This paper summarizes and illustrates basic complex decisions involving several control criteria under each of the BOCR merits. Thomas L. Saaty holds the Chair of University Professor, Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, and obtained his Ph.D. in mathematics from Yale University. Before that he was a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania for ten years. Prior to that he spent seven years at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency in the State Department in Washington, DC, that carried out the arms reduction negotiations with the Soviets in Geneva. His current research interests include decision-making, planning, conflict resolution and synthesis in the brain. As a result of his search for an effective means to deal with weapons tradeoffs at the Disarmament Agency and, more generally, with decision-making and resource allocation, Professor Saaty developed The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). He is co-developer of the software Expert Choice and of the software Super Decisions for decisions with dependence and feedback. He has authored or co-authored twelve books on the AHP/ANP. Professor Saaty has also written a number of other books that embrace a variety of topics, including Modern Nonlinear Equations, Nonlinear Mathematics, Graph Theory, The Four Color Problem, Behavioral Mathematics, Queuing Theory, Optimization in Integers, Embracing the Future and The Brain: Unraveling the Mystery of How It Works. His most recent book is Creative Thinking, Problem Solving & Decision Making. The book is a rich collection of ideas, incorporating research by a growing body of researchers and practitioners, profiles of creative people, projects and products, theory, philosophy, physics and metaphysics...all explained with a liberal dose of humor. He has published more than 300 referred articles in a wide variety of professional journals. He has been on the editorial boards of Mathematical Reviews, Operations Research, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Mathematical and Computer Modeling, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Applied Mathematics Letters, and several others. He also served as consultant to many corporations and government.     

A Brief Crack of Light?

This is a contribution to an inquiry into the historical meaning of Professor Checkland's soft systems thinking. Heidegger's picture of the present postmodern (or high-modern) epoch provides a context for unfolding that historical meaning. The discussion is focused on the possibility that Checkland's thinking could represent one of the "brief cracks" in the solid neo-instrumental way of appearing (whatever-is-the-case) that characterizes our present epoch.     

ON SERVICES RESEARCH AND EDUCATION

1. Pertinent Background The importance of the services sector can not be overstated (Tien, 2006); it employs a large and growing proportion of workers in the industrialized nations. As reflected in Table 1, the services sector includes a number of large industries; indeed, services employment in the U.S. is at 82.1 percent, while the remaining four economic sectors (i.e., manufacturing, agriculture, construction, and mining), which together can be considered to be the “goods” sector, emplo…     

用系统哲学原理剖析劳动剩余价值论——评介乌杰教授对劳动剩余价值理论最新研究成果

在十九世纪中叶正当资本主义兴起并快速发展时期，马克思对资本主义生产过程和剩余价值等重要问题给出了开创性的研究与革命性的贡献。站在我们当前社会主义初级阶段立场，考察上述剩余价值等问题时，就会产生这样的问题：时至21世纪的今天，如何看待剩余价值、公平、分配、剥削和其他相关问题？本文主要介绍乌杰教授以科学的系统观对劳动剩余价值理论问题的最新研究成果。     

以价值观为本的领导行为与组织绩效在中国的实证研究

以价值为本的领导理论是 House在综合了 2 0世纪 70年代以后的领导理论后提出的 ,代表了最新的领导理论进展。为了验证以价值为本的领导学理论在中国的有效性 ,本文在 95家企业访谈和问卷调查的基础上 ,对以价值为本的领导行为与领导绩效之间的关系进行了分析。结果表明 ,以价值为本的领导理论非常适合中国的经济环境。此理论所述的核心领导行为能导致下属的认同、满意和激励。     

论SSM中的文化问询

SSM（软系统方法论，Soft Systems Methodology）是指英国系统管理学家切克兰德教授提出的一个旨在改善问题情境（Problem Situadon）的学习过程，此过程是反复进行的。SSM与其它分析方法最大的不同就在于此方法在进行逻辑分析的同时也引入了文化问询（Cultural Inquiry）。因此本文主要就文化问询之于问题情境、文化问询中的“文化”和文化问询的“三项分析”及其作用这三点进行分析。     

INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE,DYNAMICS OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE AND SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FIRMS

1. Introduction In the past decades, the evolutionary perspective has contributed lot to the economics (Arthur and Durlauf et al 1997, Dosi and Nelson 1994, Aruka 2001). The economy is studied as an evolving complex system with many features in complexity such as nonlinear interactions and emergent properties. In reality, the economic system consists of many adaptive agents. They learn from each other, and their values may be influenced by others’ values and actions. These interactions amo…     

Best weight pattern evaluation based security constrained power dispatch algorithm

This paper presents a methodology which determines the allocation of power demand among the committed generating units while minimizes number of objectives as well as meets physical and technological system constraints. The procedure considers two decoupled problems based upon the dependency of their goals on either active power or reactive power generation. Both the problems have been solved sequentially to achieve optimal allocation of active and reactive power generation while minimizes operating cost, gaseous pollutants emission objectives and active power transmission loss with consideration of system operating constraints along with generators prohibited operating zones and transmission line flow limits. The active and reactive power line flows are obtained with the help of generalized generation shift distribution factors （GGDF） and generalized Z-bus distribution factors （GZBDF）, respectively. First problem is solved in multi-objective framework in which the best weights assigned to objectives are determined while employing weighting method and in second problem, active power loss of the system is minimized subject to system constraints. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated on 30-bus IEEE power system.     

FUZZY SATISFYING INTERACTIVE MULTIOBJECTIVE THERMAL POWER DISPATCH： SWT APPROACH

In multiobjective optimization, trade-off analysis plays an important role in determining most preferred solution. This paper presents an explicit interactive trade-off analysis based on the surrogate worth trade-off function to determine the best compromised solution. In the multiobjective framework thermal power dispatch problem is undertaken in which four objectives viz. cost, NOx emission, SOx emission and COx emission are minimized simultaneously. The interactive process is implemented using a weighting method by regulating the relative weights of objectives in systematic manner. Hence the weighting method facilitates to simulate the trade-offrelation between the conflicting objectives in non-inferior domain. Exploiting fuzzy decision making theory to access the indifference band, interaction with the decision maker is obtained via surrogate worth trade-off （SWT） functions of the objectives. The surrogate worth trade-off functions are constructed in the functional space and then transformed into the decision space, so the surrogate worth trade-off functions of objectives relate the decision maker＇s preferences to non-inferior solutions through optimal weight patterns. The optimal solution of thermal power dispatch problem is obtained by considering real and reactive power losses. Decoupled load flow analysis is performed to find the transmission losses. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated on 11-bus, 17-lines IEEE system, comprising of three generators.     

A calculus for services innovation

Innovation in the services area - especially in the electronic services （e-services） domain - can be systematically developed by first considering the strategic drivers and foci, then the tactical principles and enablers, and finally the operational decision attributes, all of which constitute a process or calculus of services innovation. More specifically, there are four customer drivers （i.e., collaboration, customization, integration and adaptation）, three business foci （i.e., creation-focused, solution-focused and competition-focused）, six business principles （i.e., reconstruct market boundaries, focus on the big picture not numbers, reach beyond existing demand, get strategic sequence right, overcome organizational hurdles and build execution into strategy）, eight technical enablers （i.e., software algorithms, automation, telecommunication, collaboration, standardization, customization, organization, and globalization）, and six attributes of decision informatics （i.e., decision-driven, information-based, real-time, continuously-adaptive, customer-centric and computationally-intensive）. It should be noted that the four customer drivers are all directed at empowering the individual - that is, at recognizing that the individual can, respectively, contribute in a collaborative situation, receive customized or personalized attention, access an integrated system or process, and obtain adaptive real-time or just-in-time input. The developed process or calculus serves to identify the potential white spaces or blue oceans for innovation. In addition to expanding on current innovations in services and related experiences, white spaces are identified for possible future innovations; they include those that can mitigate the unforeseen consequences or abuses of earlier innovations, safeguard our rights to privacy, protect us from the always-on, interconnected world, provide us with an authoritative search engine, and generate a GDP metric that can adequately measure the growing knowledge economy,     

综合集成法的认识论基础

从认识论角度分析了钱学森提出综合集成法的心路历程，论证了综合集成法是《实践论》的具体化，讨论了综合集成法对《实践论》的深化及其存在的问题。     

A perishable inventory system with service facilities, <Emphasis Type="Italic">MAP</Emphasis> arrivals and <Emphasis Type="Italic">PH</Emphasis> — Service times

We consider a continuous review perishable （s,S） inventory system with a service facility consisting of a waiting hall of finite capacity and a single server. We assume two types of customers, ordinary and negative, arrive according to a Markovian Arrival Process （MAP）. An ordinary customer joins the queue and a negative customer instead of joining the queue removes one ordinary customer from the queue. The removal rule adopted in this paper is RCE （removal of a customer from the end）. The individual customer＇s unit demand is satisfied after a random time of service which is assumed to have a phase-type distribution. The life time of each item and the lead time of the reorders have been assumed to be independent exponential distributions. The joint probability distribution of the number of customers in the system and the inventory level is obtained for the steady state case. Various stationary system performance measures are computed and the total expected cost rate is calculated. The results are illustrated numerically.     

“破碎的系统观”已不是系统观——与吴彤教授商榷

笔者不赞同吴彤教授提倡的破碎的系统观,本文试图通过讨论普遍性与特殊性、整体性与局域性、系统与非系统的辩证关系,来说明真正的系统观一定不是破碎的,系统观一旦破碎,那就不再是系统观了。     

DECISION MAKING - THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY ANDNETWORK PROCESSES （AHP／ANP）

This is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and group decisions both with the independence of the criteria from the alternatives as in the AHP and also with dependence and feedback in the entire decision structure as in the ANP. This part explains the Analytic Hierarchy Process, with examples, and presents in some detail the mathematical foundations. An exposition of the Analytic Network Process and its applications will appear in later issues of this journal. Thomas L. Saaty holds the Chair of University Professor, Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, and obtained his Ph.D. in mathematics from Yale University. Before that he was a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania for ten years. Prior to that he spent seven years at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency in the State Department in Washington, DC, that carried out the arms reduction negotiations with the Soviets in Geneva. His current research interests include decision-making, planning, conflict resolution and synthesis in the brain. As a result of his search for an effective means to deal with weapons tradeoffs at the Disarmament Agency and, more generally, with decision-making and resource allocation, Professor Saaty developed The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). He is co-developer of the software Expert Choice and of the software Super Decisions for decisions with dependence and feedback. He has authored or co-authored twelve books on the AHP/ANP. Professor Saaty has also written a number of other books that embrace a variety of topics, including Modern Nonlinear Equations, Nonlinear Mathematics, Graph Theory, The Four Color Problem, Behavioral Mathematics, Queuing Theory, Optimization in Integers, Embracing the Future and The Brain: Unraveling the Mystery of How It Works. His most recent book is Creative Thinking, Problem Solving & Decision Making. The book is a rich collection of ideas, incorporating research by a growing body of researchers and practitioners, profiles of creative people, projects and products, theory, philosophy, physics and metaphysics...all explained with a liberal dose of humor. He has published more than 300 refereed articles in a wide variety of professional journals. He has been on the editorial boards of Mathematical Reviews, Operations Research, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Mathematical and Computer Modeling, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Applied Mathematics Letters, and several others. He also served as consultant to many corporations and governments.     

SOME DEVELOPMENTS IN THE STUDIES OF META—SYNTHESIS SYSTEM APPROACH

In the early 1990s, Professor Qian Xuesen(Tsien HsueShen)and his colleagues proposed theMetasynthesis system approach for solving the open complex giant system problems. The methodemphasizes the synthesis of collected information and knowledge of various kinds of experts, andcombining quantitative methods with qualitative knowledge. Later it is evolved into Hall of Workshopfor Meta-Synthetic Engineering (HWMSE)which emphasizes to make use of breaking advances ininformation technologies. Then continuous endeavors have been taken to put those ideas into practice.With tremendous advances in networking and distributed computing technologies, past difficulties inimplementation are disappearing together with further understandings of HWMSE and fruitful resultsachieved in similar or relevant research fields in recent years in China. In this paper some of thosedevelopment are introduced, together with some parallel research work abroad.     

Fundamentals of the analytic network process — Dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network

The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a multicriteria theory of measurement used to derive relative priority scales of absolute numbers from individual judgments (or from actual measurements normalized to a relative form) that also belong to a fundamental scale of absolute numbers. These judgments represent the relative influence, of one of two elements over the other in a pairwise comparison process on a third element in the system, with respect to an underlying control criterion. Through its supermatrix, whose entries are themselves matrices of column priorities, the ANP synthesizes the outcome of dependence and feedback within and between clusters of elements. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with its independence assumptions on upper levels from lower levels and the independence of the elements in a level is a special case of the ANP. The ANP is an essential tool for articulating our understanding of a decision problem. One had to overcome the limitation of linear hierarchic structures and their mathematical consequences. This part on the ANP summarizes and illustrates the basic concepts of the ANP and shows how informed intuitive judgments can lead to real life answers that are matched by actual measurements in the real world (for example, relative dollar values) as illustrated in market share examples that rely on judgments and not on numerical data. Thomas L. Saaty holds the Chair of University Professor, Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, and obtained his Ph.D. in mathematics from Yale University. Before that he was a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania for ten years. Prior to that he spent seven years at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency in the State Department in Washington, DC, that carried out the arms reduction negotiations with the Soviets in Geneva. His current research interests include decision-making, planning, conflict resolution and synthesis in the brain. As a result of his search for an effective means to deal with weapons tradeoffs at the Disarmament Agency and, more generally, with decision-making and resource allocation, Professor Saaty developed The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). He is co-developer of the software Expert Choice and of the software Super Decisions for decisions with dependence and feedback. He has authored or co-authored twelve books on the AHP/ANP. Professor Saaty has also written a number of other books that embrace a variety of topics, including Modern Nonlinear Equations, Nonlinear Mathematics, Graph Theory, The Four Color Problem, Behavioral Mathematics, Queuing Theory, Optimization in Integers, Embracing the Future and The Brain: Unraveling the Mystery of How It Works. His most recent book is Creative Thinking, Problem Solving & Decision Making. The book is a rich collection of ideas, incorporating research by a growing body of researchers and practitioners, profiles of creative people, projects and products, theory, philosophy, physics and metaphysics...all explained with a liberal dose of humor. He has published more than 300 refereed articles in a wide variety of professional journals. He has been on the editorial boards of Mathematical Reviews, Operations Research, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Mathematical and Computer Modeling, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Applied Mathematics Letters, and several others. He also served as consultant to many corporations and governments.     

A Biography of Bela H. Banathy: A Systems Scholar

This article reflects a biographical account of Bela H. Banathy's life, providing a recorded history of his accomplishments, personally and professionally. Professor Banathy made significant contributions to systems design theory and practice throughout his life. The author chronicles Bela's lifework as a systems scholar, drawing from personal communication, autobiographical documents, and published works to create a biographical portrait.     

The biocybernetic approach as a basis for planning our environment

In this paper, Professor Vester introduces the readers ofSystems Practice to his biocybernetic approach to systems planning, an approach that he has shown to be fruitful both in concrete applications and in many best-selling didactic publications, including children's books and games. Based on this approach he proposes a “cybernetic senstivity model,” a conceptual framework for ecologically sound systems design based on a biocybernetic redefinition of conventional techniques of systems modeling and simulation. The author explains the basic structure of the model and presents eight pertinent biocybernetic principles of good-systems practice. (Editor).     

基于相似性和接近性视角的新型灰色关联分析模型

以笔者1992年提出的灰色绝对关联度模型为基础,构造出分别从相似性和接近性两个不同视角测度序列之间的相互关系和影响的灰色关联分析模型,并研究了灰色相似关联度和灰色接近关联度的计算及性质,最后给出一个算例.新模型克服了原模型存在的问题,更易于实际应用.相似关联度主要用于测度序列折线在几何形状上的相似程度;接近关联度用于测度序列折线在空间中的接近程度.需要说明的是,接近关联度仅适用于序列的意义、量纲完全相同的情形,当序列的意义、量纲不同时,研究其接近关联度没有意义.     

Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.