共查询到10条相似文献，搜索用时 53 毫秒
1.
The nonlinear optimization methods are applied to quantify the predictability of a numerical model for El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We establish a lower bound of maximum predictability time for the model ENSO events (i.e. ENSO events in the numerical model), an upper bound of maximum prediction error, and a lower bound of maximum allowable initial error, all of which potentially quantify the predictability of model ENSO. Numerical results reveal the phenomenon of “spring predictability barrier” (SPB) for ENSO event and support the previous views on SPB. Additionally, we also explore the differences between the linear evolution of prediction error and its nonlinear counterpart. The results demonstrate the limitation of linear estimation of prediction error. All these above results suggest that the nonlinear optimization method is one of the useful tools of quantifying the predictability of the numerical model for ENSO. 相似文献
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Based on our developed ENSO （El Nino-Southern Oscillation） ensemble prediction system （EPS）, the impacts of stochastic initial-error and model-error perturbations on ENSO ensemble predictions are examined and discussed by performing four sets of 14-a retrospective forecast experiments in both a deterministic and probabilistic sense, These forecast schemes are differentiated by whether they con- sidered the initial or model stochastic perturbations, The comparison results suggest that the sto- chastic model-error perturbations, which are added into the modeled physical fields to mainly represent the uncertainties of the physical model, have significant, positive impacts on improving the ensemble prediction skills during the entire 12-month forecast process, However, the stochastic initial-error perturbations have relatively small impacts on the ensemble prediction system, and its impacts are mainly focusing on the first 3-month predictions. 相似文献
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Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications to the studies of weather and climate predictability 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
MU Mu DUAN Wansuo 《科学通报(英文版)》2005,50(21):2401-2407
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） is the initial perturbation that has the largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time for initial perturbations satisfying certain physical constraint condition. It does not only represent the optimal precursor of certain weather or climate event, but also stand for the initial error which has largest effect on the prediction uncertainties at the prediction time. In sensitivity and stability analyses of fluid motion, CNOP also describes the most unstable （or most sensitive） mode. CNOP has been used to estimate the upper bound of the prediction error. These physical characteristics of CNOP are examined by applying respectively them to ENSO predictability studies and ocean＇s thermohaline circulation （THC） sensitivity analysis. In ENSO predictability studies, CNOP, rather than linear singular vector （LSV）, represents the initial patterns that evolve into ENSO events most potentially, i.e. the optimal precursors for ENSO events. When initial perturbation is considered to be the initial error of ENSO, CNOP plays the role of the initial error that has largest effect on the prediction of ENSO. CNOP also derives the upper bound of prediction error of ENSO events. In the THC sensitivity and stability studies, by calculating the CNOP （most unstable perturbation） of THC, it is found that there is an asymmetric nonlinear response of ocean＇s THC to the finite amplitude perturbations. Finally, attention is paid to the feasibility of CNOP in more complicated model. It is shown that in a model with higher dimensions, CNOP can be computed successfully. The corresponding optimization algorithm is also shown to be efficient. 相似文献
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The El Ni(n~)o/La Ni(n~)a and the Southern Oscillation are an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, based on a kind of simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model for ENSO, using the perturbed theory and method, the asymptotic behavior of solution of corresponding problem is studied. It is proved from the results that the trajectories of phase plane for coupled ocean-atmosphere model ultimately tend to the stable attractors separately. 相似文献
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刘永明 《华东师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2008,2008(2):131-134
在非线性系统(发展方程及常微分方程)中初始数据的扰动对系统以后某固定时刻,T的状态的影响是一个重要的研究课题.本文研究非线性系统在初始数据在一定的范围(称为初始扰动域)内作有限幅度的扰动时,在时刻,T对状态扰动的幅度达到最大的问题.通过考虑反向时间的问题及假设解对初始数据的连续依赖性,证明了若在时刻,T状态扰动的幅度达到最大, 则初始数据位于初始扰动域的边界上, 这个结果的重要意义在于可以减少数值求解扰动幅度最大问题的计算量. 相似文献
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通过对影响粒子群算法性能的两个关键因素进行改进,将一种改进的粒子群算法应用于条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)的求解中,并与传统的基于梯度下降算法进行比较。比较数值结果显示,在非光滑情形下,传统的基于伴随模式提供梯度信息的SPG2求解出的CNOP绝大部分是局部的,只有少数是全局的。而改进的粒子群算法则在200次数值实验中均能够较好地求解出全局CNOP。 相似文献
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陈怀军 《安徽工程科技学院学报：自然科学版》2007,22(3):36-38
讨论了一类二阶弱非线性常微分方程,利用Lindstedt-Poincare法,引入参量变换,消去形式解中出现的长期项,得到了解的一阶一致有效的渐近展开式.再用多重尺度法,引入多个变量尺度,把原常微分方程转化为几个相应的偏微分方程,再根据不出现长期项的原则,构造了解的渐近展开式.最后,比较了上述两种方法得到的解的展开式,得到了相同的结果. 相似文献
9.
A class of delayed oscillators and coupled systems to oscillation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) models are considered. Using the perturbed theory and other methods, the exact solution or asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO models is obtained and the asymptotic behavior of solution of corresponding problem is studied. 相似文献
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