Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes

Extremes of weather and climate can have devastating effects on human society and the environment. Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area, is critical for reliable projections of future changes. Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly exponentially with temperature--and that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation--it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for increases in heavy precipitation. Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through model-model comparisons. Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming.     

西江流域气候变化下未来时期降雨的时空变化

珠江流域是岭南地区最大的流域,西江流域为珠江的主要支流.西江流域未来时期年最大降雨与年均降雨的变化会影响未来时期的极端洪水与水资源短缺情况,但是相关研究较少.该研究基于国际多模型比较计划ISIMIP2b数据,对西江流域未来时期年最大降雨与年均降雨进行研究.研究发现,年最大与年均降雨在RCP 8.5与RCP 4.5场景下...     

Uncertainty in crossing time of 2 °C warming threshold over China

The 2 °C warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature (SAT) change over China will reach 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era. To understand the uncertainties, we analyzed the projected SAT in the twenty-first century using 40 state-of-the-art climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The 2 °C threshold-crossing time (TCT) of SAT averaged across China was around 2033 and 2029 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Considering a ±1σ range of intermodel SAT change, the upper and lower bounds of the 2 °C TCT could differ by about 25 years or even more. Uncertainty in the projected SAT and the warming rate around the TCT are the two main factors responsible for the TCT uncertainty. The former is determined by the climate sensitivity represented by the global mean surface temperature response. About 45 % of the intermodel variance of the projected 2 °C TCT for averaged SAT over China can be explained by climate sensitivity across the models, which is contributed mainly by central and southern China. In a climate more sensitive to CO₂ forcing, stronger greenhouse effect, less stratus cloud over the East Asian monsoon region, and less snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau result in increased downward longwave radiation, increased shortwave radiation, and decreased shortwave radiation reflected by the surface, respectively, all of which may advance the TCT.     

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Projection of future climate changes and their regional impact is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation in China and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase (CMIP5) simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation in China is projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The number of days and the intensity of medium rain, large rain and heavy rain are obviously increased, while the number of trace rain days is projected to decrease over the entire area of China. Further analysis indicates that the significant increase of annual precipitation in Northwest China is primarily due to the increase of light rain and the increases in North and Northeast China are primarily due to the increase of medium rain. In the region of southern China, the increases of large rain and heavy rain play an important role in the increase of annual precipitation, while light rain events play a negative role. Analysis of the changes in atmospheric circulation indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is projected to be considerably stronger, and the local atmospheric stratification is projected to be more unstable, all of which provide a background benefit for the increase of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in China under global warming scenarios.     

马尾松分布格局对未来气候变化的响应

【目的】分析并预测未来气候变化对马尾松适宜分布范围,探讨影响马尾松潜在地理分布的主要气候因子,为马尾松潜在分布区种质资源管理和保护提供参考与指导。【方法】以中国数字植物标本馆记录的马尾松分布数据为基础,利用MaxEnt模型及地理信息系统ArcGIS 10.3软件探讨马尾松当前地理分布特征及其潜在分布区,并针对代表性浓度路径(RCP) 2.6及RCP 8.5两种气候情景下未来(2050年和2070年)马尾松适宜分布范围及主要气候因子进行分析。【结果】当前马尾松高适生区覆盖的地区主要分布于秦岭—淮河线以南。浙江、福建、江西、湖北西南部、湖南、重庆、四川东南部、贵州北部、广西中部、广东北部等地区为马尾松主要分布区,海南、云南及台湾等地为零星分布区。在未来气候情景下,马尾松适生区向我国北部地区迁移,包括河南西部、山东半岛、辽东半岛、河北东部、山西南部等地区,而在云南南部零星地区不会再有马尾松自然分布。在未来两种气候情景4个条件中,相同RCP情景下,不同年限各适生区之间的差异并不明显,变化趋势大致相同;但相同年限的不同RCP情景对应的各适生区面积变化存在明显区别,RCP 8.5的影响要高于RCP 2.6。影响马尾松地理分布的主导生物气候变量为年均降水量、最干月降水量及平均气温日较差,且降水较温度的影响更大。【结论】未来气候变化将导致马尾松分布范围进一步扩大,新增分布区主要集中于当前分布区北部。应以当前马尾松适生环境为基础,针对当地气候类型、土壤条件等环境因素合理建立保护区,以便马尾松能够顺利适应新环境。     

Projected change in the relationship between East Asian summer rainfall and upper-tropospheric westerly jet

The authors analyzed the interannual variability in summer precipitation and the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet (EAJ) over East Asia under the Historical and Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCPs, including RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using outputs of 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled models. The analyzed results indicate that the models can reasonably reproduce relatively stronger interannual variability in both East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) and EAJ. These models can also capture the relationship between the rainfall anomaly along the East Asian rain belt and meridional displacement of the EAJ. Projected results suggest that the interannual variabilities in precipitation along the East Asian rain belt and in the EAJ are enhanced under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the 21st century, which is consistent with the previous studies. Furthermore, it is found that the relationship between the East Asian rainfall and the meridional displacement of the EAJ is projected to be stronger in the 21st century under the global warming scenarios, although there are appreciable discrepancies among the models.     

Climate change impacts on crop yield,crop water productivity and food security-A review

This paper provides a comprehensive review of literature related to the assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity using climate,water and crop yield models.The existing studies present that climate change models with higher spatial resolution can be a way forward for future climate projections.Meanwhile,stochastic projections of more than one climate model are necessary for providing insights into model uncertainties as well as to develop risk management strategies.It is projected that water availability will increase in some parts of the world,which will have its own effect on water use efficiency and water allocation.Crop production can increase if irrigated areas are expanded or irrigation is intensified,but these may increase the rate of environmental degradation.Since climate change impacts on soil water balance will lead to changes of soil evaporation and plant transpiration,consequently,the crop growth period may shorten in the future impacting on water productivity.Crop yields affected by climate change are projected to be different in various areas,in some areas crop yields will increase,and for other areas it will decrease depending on the latitude of the area and irrigation application.Existing modelling results show that an increase in precipitation will increase crop yield,and what is more,crop yield is more sensitive to the precipitation than temperature.If water availability is reduced in the future,soils of high water holding capacity will be better to reduce the impact of drought while maintaining crop yield.With the temperature increasing and precipitation fluctuations,water availability and crop production are likely to decrease in the future.If the irrigated areas are expanded,the total crop production will increase;however,food and environmental quality may degrade.     

Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the global model CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). A 150-year (1951-2100) transient simulation is conducted at 25 km grid spacing, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. Simulations of present climate conditions in China by RegCM3 are compared against observations to assess model performance. Results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed spatial structure of surface air temperature and precipitation well. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation in December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) during the middle and end of the 21st century are analyzed. Significant future warming is simulated by RegCM3. This warming becomes greater with time, and increased warming is simulated at high latitude and high altitude (Tibetan Plateau) areas. In the middle of the 21st century in DJF, a general increase of precipitation is found in most areas, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation changes in JJA show an increase over northwest China and a decrease over the Tibetan Plateau. There is a mixture of positive and negative changes in eastern China. The change pattern at the end of the century is generally consistent with that in mid century, except in some small areas, and the magnitude of change is usually larger. In addition, the simulation is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 driven by a different global model, to address uncertainties of the projected climate change in China.     

Reconstruction and analysis of temporal and spatial variations in surface soil moisture in China using remote sensing

An ensemble method was used to combine three surface soil moisture products,retrieved from passive microwave remote sensing data,to reconstruct a monthly soil moisture data set for China between 2003 and 2010.Using the ensemble data set,the temporal and spatial variations of surface soil moisture were analyzed.The major findings were:(1) The ensemble data set was able to provide more realistic soil moisture information than individual remote sensing products;(2) during the study period,the soil moisture increased in semiarid regions and decreased in arid regions with anoverall drying trend for the whole country;(3) the soil moisture variation trends derived from the three retrieval products and the ensemble data differ from each other but all data sets show the dominant drying trend for the summer,and that most of the drying regions were in major agricultural areas;(4) compared with the precipitation trends derived from Global Precipitation Climatology Project data,it is speculated that climate change is a possible cause for the drying trend in semiarid regions and the wetting trend in arid regions;and (5) combining soil moisture trends with land surface temperature trends derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiomete,the study domain was divided into four categories.Regions with drying and warming trends cover 33.2%,the regions with drying and cooling trends cover 27.4%,the regions with wetting and warming trends cover 21.1% and the regions with wetting and cooling trends cover 18.1%.The first two categories primarily cover the major grain producing areas,while the third category primarily covers nonarable areas such as Northwest China and Tibet.This implies that the moisture and heat variation trends in China are unfavorable to sustainable development and ecology conservation.     

Impacts of climate change on ecosystem in Priority Areas of Biodiversity Conservation in China

Priority Areas of Biodiversity Conservation （PABCs） are the key areas for future biodiversity conservation in China. In this study, we used 5 dynamic global vegetation models （DGVMs） to simulate the ecosystem function changes under future climate change scenario in the 32 terrestrial PABCs. We selected vegetation coverage, vegetation productivity, and ecosystem carbon balance as the indicators to describe the ecosystem function changes. The results indicate that woody vegetation coverage will greatly increase in the Loess Plateau Region, the North China Plain, and the Lower Hilly Region of South China. The future climate change will have great impact on the original vegetation in alpine meadow and arid and semiarid regions. The vegetation productivity of most PABCs will enhance in the coming 100 years. The largest increment will take place in the southwestern regions with high elevation. The PABCs in the Desert Region of Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau are with fastest productivity climbing, and these areas are also with more carbon sink accumulation in the future. DGVM will be a new efficient tool for evaluating ecosystem function changes in future in large scale. This study is expected to provide technical support for the future ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation under climate change.     

East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980-1999. Regionally, it weakens (strengthens) north (south) of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased north- west-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.     

CMIP6多模式在青藏高原的适应性评估及未来气候变化预估

随着CMIP6（coupled model intercomparison project phase 6）计划进行,新一代大气环流模式（general circulation model, GCM）输出结果陆续发布,及时探究在新模式新情景下青藏高原未来降水及气温的变化规律至关重要．在对CMIP6多模式进行适应性评估的基础上,运用DM（direct method）统计降尺度方法,以1979—2014年为基准期,预估青藏高原未来近期（2031—2050年）、远期（2061—2080年）在共享社会经济路径与典型浓度路径组合情景（shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, SSP)包括低强迫情景(SSP126)、中等强迫情景（SSP245）、中等至高强迫情景（SSP370）、高强迫情景（SSP585）下的降水、平均气温、最低气温、最高气温的时空演变规律．结果表明:相较于基准期,不同GCM对青藏高原未来降水的预估总体呈现增加趋势,近期降水较基准期变幅为?3%~16%,远期变幅为?1%~21%．未来平均气温、最低气温和最高气温均呈现一致的增温趋势,且增幅较为一致．相较于基准期,近期气温变化范围为0.9~2.3 ℃,远期气温变化范围为1.01~4.6 ℃．随着排放强度的增加,三者升温趋势愈加显著,即升温趋势由强至弱排序为SSP585、SSP370、SSP245、SSP126．此外,青藏高原气温变化在海拔高度上具有显著的依赖性,整体表现为青藏高原北部高海拔地区增温高于青藏高原东南部低海拔地区．研究结果可为揭示气候变化对高寒区水循环的影响机制提供科学依据．      

Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2°C global warming

Based on a 153-year (1948-2100) transient simulation of East Asian climate performed by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the potential future changes in mean and extreme climates over China in association with a global warming of 2℃ with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed in this study. Results show that annual temperature rises over the whole of China, with a greater magnitude of around 0.6℃ compared to the global mean increase, at the time of a 2℃ global warming. Large-scale surface warming gets stronger towards the high latitudes and on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while it is similar in magnitude but somewhat different in spatial pattern between seasons. Annual precipitation increases by 5.2%, and seasonal precipitation increases by 4.2%-8.5% with respect to the 1986-2005 climatology. At the large scale, apart from in boreal winter when precipitation increases in northern China but decreases in southern China, annual and seasonal precipitation increases in western and southeastern China but decreases over the rest of the country. Nationwide extreme warm (cold) temperature events increase (decrease). With respect to the 1986-2005 climatology, the country-averaged annual extreme precipitation events R5d, SDII, R95T, and R10 increase by 5.1 mm, 0.28 mm d -1 , 6.6%, and 0.4 d respectively, and CDD decreases by 0.5 d. There is a large spatial variability in R10 and CDD changes.     

5个CMIP5模式对低纬高原气温的模拟和预估

利用CMIP5中5个气候模式19612005年的月平均气象要素资料、低纬高原区高分辨的月平均温度格点资料,采用BP神经网络、EOF分析以及多元回归方法对低纬高原地区2006年1月至2099年12月期间的温度进行预估研究.结果表明,各温度模型集合模拟的低纬高原地区未来94年温度在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5 三种排放情景下均呈明显的上升趋势.至2099年,与2005年平均温度相比,RCP2.6排放情景下,温度升高0.9℃,RCP4.5排放情景下,温度升高1.8℃,RCP8.5排放情景下,温度升高3.3℃.     

Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

The global climate has been altered by the anthro- pogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) emis- sions. It is pointed out in the Third Assessments Report (TAR)[1] of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 that over the 20th centur…     

Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change

Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. It is therefore essential to quantify the risk of significant departures from the predicted response to a given emission scenario. Previous analyses of this risk have been based either on expert opinion, perturbation analysis of simplified climate models or the comparison of predictions from general circulation models. Recent observed changes that appear to be attributable to human influence provide a powerful constraint on the uncertainties in multi-decadal forecasts. Here we assess the range of warming rates over the coming 50 years that are consistent with the observed near-surface temperature record as well as with the overall patterns of response predicted by several general circulation models. We expect global mean temperatures in the decade 2036-46 to be 1-2.5 K warmer than in pre-industrial times under a 'business as usual' emission scenario. This range is relatively robust to errors in the models' climate sensitivity, rate of oceanic heat uptake or global response to sulphate aerosols as long as these errors are persistent over time. Substantial changes in the current balance of greenhouse warming and sulphate aerosol cooling would, however, increase the uncertainty. Unlike 50-year warming rates, the final equilibrium warming after the atmospheric composition stabilizes remains very uncertain, despite the evidence provided by the emerging signal.     

基于CMIP6集合优化数据集的全球陆地极端气候变化预估

预估极端气候事件趋势能够降低其引起的灾害风险.该文基于CMIP6集合优化数据集EPTGODD-WHU,选取5个极端气候指数,即最高气温极大值(TXx)、最高气温极小值(TXn)、最低气温极大值(TNx)、最低气温极小值(TNn)和最大月降水量(PXx),并结合GIS分析手段,对2021—2100年SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下的全球陆地极端气温及降水进行预估.结果表明：1)相较于CMIP单一模式,EPTGODD-WHU数据集模拟性能显著提升,气温及降水的空间相关系数分别达到0.99和0.81.2) SSP5-8.5情景下,年最低气温和最高气温均上升明显,且这种上升趋势年内波动不大,地球陆地极寒地区将面临升温的风险,而赤道等极热地区将处于年内长时间酷热状态.3)六大洲在SSP5-8.5情景下的极端降水整体上升趋势最剧烈,但北美洲密西西比平原和滨海平原的地区在SSP5-8.5情景下在未来面临较高的旱灾风险.4)中国西南部地区的极端降水在三个情景下均呈稳定的增幅,且增幅高达60%,预示面临较高的洪灾风险.     

气候变化对中国北方季风区生态系统总初级生产量的影响评价

利用中国北方季风区121个地表气象观测站2000-2013年逐日气温和降水资料及MODIS遥感8天平均总初级生产量数据(MOD17A2), 分别建立了14年内8天累积平均、最低、最高气温和降雨量与累积总初级生产量的线性气候相关模型。基于模型所得区间的阈值和参数, 计算区域模式RSM本底时期10年(1996-2005年)及未来 10年(2041-2050年)两种排放情景RCP4.5和RCP8.5下, 森林、草地和农田生态系统总初级生产量累积开始日期、累积时期、累积结束日期及累积速率变化, 分析平均、最高、最低气温和降水量变化对总初级生产量累积的影响, 并综合评价气候变化对生态系统总初级生产量累积的影响。结果表明: 平均气温和最低气温对总初级生产量的模拟精度高于最高气温和降雨量; 总初级生产量累积开始和结束日期对4 类气候因子的变化均较敏感, 而累积时期和累积速率仅对平均气温和最高气温的变化较敏感; 未来气候变化将延长累积时期, 增加累积速率, 并提高总初级生产量。     

Soil moisture-based study of the variability of dry-wet climate and climate zones in China

An ensemble soil moisture dataset was produced from 11 of 25 global climate model (GCM) simulations for two climate scenarios spanning 1900 to 2099; this dataset was based on an evaluation of the spatial correlation of means and trends in reference to soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing. Using the ensemble soil moisture index, we analyzed the dry-wet climate variability and the dynamics of the climate zone boundaries in China over this 199-year period. The results showed that soil moisture increased in the typically arid regions, but with insignificant trends in the humid regions; furthermore, the soil moisture exhibited strong oscillations with significant drought trends in the transition zones between arid and humid regions. The dynamics of climate zone boundaries indicated that the expansion of semiarid regions and the contraction of semi-humid regions are typical characteristics of the dry-wet climate variability for two scenarios in China. During the 20th century, the total area of semiarid regions expanded by 11.5% north of 30°N in China, compared to the average area for 1970–1999, but that of semi-humid regions decreased by approximately 9.8% in comparison to the average for the period of 1970–1999, even though the transfer area of the humid to the semi-humid regions was taken into account. For the 21st century, the dynamics exhibit similar trends of climate boundaries, but with greater intensity.     

基于人工神经网络开发中国地区统计降尺度气候预估数据

针对中国地区的气候预估问题,开发一套高时空分辨率(空间分辨率:0.25°;时间分辨率:逐日)的统计降尺度气候变化数据集.降尺度气候预估结果表明:1)在传统降尺度方法的基础上引入人工神经网络算法,开发高时空分辨率的降尺度气候数据,技术上简便可行;2)将这种新方法应用到模式的历史模拟数据上,温度和降水的气候态偏差显著减小,...