Regional,individual and political determinants of FOMC members' key macroeconomic forecasts |
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| Authors: | Stefan Eichler Tom Lähner |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Chair of International Monetary Economics, Technische Universit?t Dresden, Dresden, Germany;2. Department of Financial Markets, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Halle, Germany;3. Institute of Money and International Finance, Leibniz University Hanover, Hanover, Germany |
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| Abstract: | We study Federal Open Market Committee members' individual forecasts of inflation and unemployment in the period 1992–2004. Our results imply that Governors and Bank presidents forecast differently, with Governors submitting lower inflation and higher unemployment rate forecasts than bank presidents. For Bank presidents we find a regional bias, with higher district unemployment rates being associated with lower inflation and higher unemployment rate forecasts. Bank presidents' regional bias is more pronounced during the year prior to their elections or for nonvoting bank presidents. Career backgrounds or political affiliations also affect individual forecast behavior. |
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| Keywords: | FOMC individual characteristics individual forecasts regional bias |
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