| 全球气候模式中气候变化预测预估的不确定性 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘志雨,夏军.全球气候模式中气候变化预测预估的不确定性[J].自然杂志,2016,38(3):182-188. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘志雨 夏军 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院，北京 100875；2武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，武汉 430072 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB428400)资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 人类活动造成的以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化对生态系统和人类社会造成严重的影响。全球气候模式正日益成为研究当前气候特征和现象、了解过去气候演变规律及预估未来气侯变化不可替代的、最具潜力的工具。气候模式已被广泛运用于全球和区域未来气候变化的研究中。未来情景的不确定性、气候系统内部的自然变率的不确定性和表征气候过程的不确定性是造成气候预测预估不确定性的主要来源,而概率分布是一个很好地表示气候变化预测不确定性的方式。介绍了贝叶斯多模式推断方法来描述气候变化预估不确定性的理论框架,并以中国区域为例,利用IPCC-AR5的气候模式数据,通过贝叶斯多模式推理方法预估未来中国区域的南北方两个典型流域(海河和珠江流域)未来气候变化情况。结果表明:中国区域都将呈现出变暖的趋势,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,温度变化趋势分别为0.91±0.30°C/100a、2.41±0.77°C/100a、6.08±1.01°C/100a;降水也呈现出增加的趋势,三种情景下的趋势分别为(5.58±2.96)%/100a、(10.30±4.30)%/100a和(15.90±6.68)%/100a;中国海河流域的年降水量在2020s和2040s都将出现增加的趋势,珠江流域则在2020s略有降低,2040s开始增加。并且在2020s和2040s发生干旱和极端暴雨等极端降水事件的概率同时增加。
|
| 关 键 词： | 气候变化预估 全球气候模式 不确定性量化 贝叶斯多模型推理方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-05-04 |
Impact of climate change on flood disaster risk in China |
| |
| LIU Zhiyu,XIA Jun.Impact of climate change on flood disaster risk in China[J].Chinese Journal of Nature,2016,38(3):182-188. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Zhiyu XIA Jun |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Flooding is one of the worst natural disaster in China, and it is characterized by wide distribution, high frequency, and huge economic losses, which has been one of the important factors that restrict the economic and social sustainable development. Research shows that flooding in China has significant periodic decadal characteristics of high frequency and low frequency. For nearly 30 years, the inter-annual amplitude of floods in eastern monsoon climate area in China mostly showed a trend of increase. The increased frequency and intensity of flooding in typical southern river basins with high flood risk, and small and medium-sized rivers became prominent, and urban flooding and water-logging caused by storms in metropolises showed an increased trend. Under the background
of global climate warming, rapid development of urbanization, heavy rain, floods and other extreme events may increase in occurrence and in intensity in future in parts of China, so as to increase the risk of flood disasters and accelerate the difficulty of flood-prevention and dispatch command, and thus causing unfavorable influences on the economic and social sustainable development. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《自然杂志》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《自然杂志》下载全文 |
|
