Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom |
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| Authors: | Malgorzata Seklecka Athanasios A Pantelous Colin O'Hare |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, UK;2. Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed. |
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| Keywords: | climate change (temperature) forecasting Lee– Carter model longevity pricing life annuity United Kingdom population |
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