On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009–2012 |
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| Authors: | David A. Bessler Shahriar Kibriya Junyi Chen Edwin Price |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA;2. Center on Conflict and Development, Texas A&M University, Texas, USA |
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| Abstract: | ![]()
This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out‐of‐sample period 2009–2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000–2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month's wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 ‘Heglig crisis’. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| Keywords: | conflict probability calibration encompassing |
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