| 基于云模型的厦门保税船用燃油需求短期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李滢棠,凌笑颜,邓丽娟.基于云模型的厦门保税船用燃油需求短期预测[J].集美大学学报(自然科学版),2021,26(5):439-446. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李滢棠 凌笑颜 邓丽娟 |
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| 作者单位： | (1.集美大学航海学院，福建 厦门 361021；2.厦门海洋职业技术学院,福建 厦门 361001） |
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| 摘 要： | 为了准确预测厦门保税船用燃油需求量，首先，构建厦门保税船用燃油需求云模型，预测供需平衡条件下2020年厦门保税船用燃油需求量。选取外贸集装箱吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量、厦门GDP 3个指标作为输入变量，构建logistic回归预测模型。对厦门保税船用燃油需求量进行预测，将两种模型的预测结果与2020年厦门保税船用燃油实际值进行比较，结果显示，基于云模型的厦门保税船用燃油需求预测比logistic回归预测模型更精确。最后，选择云模型对2021年厦门保税船用燃油需求量进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 保税油 云模型 Logistic回归模型 短期预测 厦门市 |
Short-Term Forecast of Xiamen Bonded Marine Fuel Demand Based on Cloud Model |
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| LI Yingtang,LING Xiaoyan,DENG Lijuan.Short-Term Forecast of Xiamen Bonded Marine Fuel Demand Based on Cloud Model[J].the Editorial Board of Jimei University(Natural Science),2021,26(5):439-446. |
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| Authors: | LI Yingtang LING Xiaoyan DENG Lijuan |
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| Affiliation: | (1.Navigation College,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China;2.Xiamen Ocean Vocational College,Xiamen 361001,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper studies and establishes an appropriate forecasting model of Xiamen bonded marine fuel demand to provide decision support for its market development.Firstly,a cloud model was built to predict the demand of Xiamen bonded marine fuel in 2020 under the condition of supply-demand balance.Then,three indexes namely,foreign trade container throughput,container throughput and Xiamen GDP,were selected as input variables to build a volume logistic regression prediction model.By comparing the forecast results of the two models with the actual volume of Xiamen bonded marine fuel in 2020,it is verified that the demand forecast based on the cloud model is more accurate than that of the logistic regression model.Finally,the cloud model is used to forecast the bonded marine fuel demand in Xiamen in 2021. |
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| Keywords: | bonded marine fuel cloud model logistic regression model short-term forecast Xiamen |
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