摘要： 基于南通港港口吞吐量短期预测的基础上，量化分析南通港港口效率，有助于南通港优化资源配置，提升港口竞争力。选取南通港1998-2014年的数据作为样本，运用灰色预测GM（1,1）模型对南通港2015-2019年的货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量进行预测，从投入、产出角度出发构建港口绩效评价指标；在灰色预测的基础上，分别在保持南通港现有投入规模（2014年）不变和保持南通港现有投入增速两种情况下对南通港1998年至2019年绩效进行了评价与分析，发现南通港在保持现有投入增速的情况下整体效率更高，且2015至2017三年间仍呈现规模报酬递增，至2018年实现规模效率最大化，因此相比于目前的投入增速，南通港应在2015至2017年间进一步扩大投入规模。

Abstract：Performance evaluation of Nantong port based on the short-period prediction of throughput capacity will help Nantong port optimize its resource allocation and thus improve its competitiveness. The paper collected the date of Nantong Port during the period of 1998-2014 as the sample and used the GM (1,1) model to predict its cargo throughput capacity and container throughput capacity from 2015-2019.The paper built port performance evaluation index from the view of input and output. Based on the prediction result, the paper evaluated the perform of Nantong port during the period of 1998-2019 under two circumstances respectively: keeping the input scale (2014) and keeping the increase trend of input. It turned out that the whole efficiency of Nantong port is higher when keeping the increase trend of its input, and the returns to scale will keep increasing from 2015 to 2017. In2018, the returns to scale of Nantong port will be the largest. Therefore, compared with the current increasing rate, Nantong port should keep increasing its input during 2015 to 2017.

1.葫芦岛市哲学社会科学研究课题”董事会治理、经理控制与新创公司创新绩效” （HLDSKY201800162）2.辽宁省辽宁工程技术大学博士科研启动基金项目(10-129),